NFL Playoffs: In AFC Rematches, Expect Revenge

In the AFC, there are going to be two great matchups. Today, the Ravens play the Tennessee Titans. Tomorrow, the San Diego Chargers will visit the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both the Steelers (12-4) and Titans (13-3) had bye weeks in the first round. Last week, the Ravens (11-5) and Chargers (8-8) had impressive wins over the Dolphins and Colts, respectively.

The Ravens crushed the Dolphins, 27-9. Ed Reed picked off two passes, Fabian Washington and Jim Leonhard each picked off one, Ronnie Brown ran for under 20 yards and Le'Ron McClain had two touchdown runs. Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington, who threw just seven interceptions this year, had one touchdown and four interceptions against Baltimore. Ravens QB Joe Flacco was just 9-for-23 with 135 yards, but didn't fumble, didn't get sacked and didn't throw an interception. He also ran for a touchdown.

The Chargers shocked the Colts, 23-17. Backup running back Darren Sproles stepped his game up to another level. He ran the ball 23 times, picking up 105 yards and scoring twice, including the game winner in overtime. Pro Bowl snub Philip Rivers wasn't very good (20-for-36, 217 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), but led a drive at the end of regulation to tie it and a drive in OT to win it. Peyton Manning was good by the numbers (25-for-42, 310 yards, 1 TD), but wasn't very good when it mattered.

In Week 5, the Ravens played the Titans and lost, 13-10. A bad call by a referee ruined the Ravens. Terrell Suggs was called for roughing the passer and was penalized 15 yards. When you look at the replay, it really didn't look that way at all. Titans quarterback Kerry Collins led a drive with minutes left and with a chance, Flacco threw an interception. But what makes me think this game could be different?

Since that game, the Ravens have won ten and lost three and Joe Flacco is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the National Football League. In that 13-game span, he has 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, including three in the next game. In the last 12 games, his numbers are very, very good. Le'Ron McClain and Todd Heap are more involved in the offense, Willis McGahee has looked like his 2007 self and Mark Clayton is getting better by the week. Ed Reed is also easily the hottest player in the NFL.

“We're pounding away at the beginning of the game,” McGahee said. “Sooner or later, the defenses have to break, regardless. They're going to give up that big run sooner or later.”

I don't expect Flacco to break out against a great Tennessee defense that has Cortland Finnegan at corner and Michael Griffin at safety, but I wouldn't be too shocked by it.“We expect him to play the way he's playing,” offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said. “The good news for all of us is that he expects to play better than we expect him to play. I think that's probably the important thing.”

Overall, the Titans have a slightly better defense. the Titans allow 14.6 points per game and the Ravens allow 15.3 per game. But in other defensive categories, the Ravens have the lead. The Ravens have the third best run defense (81.4) while the Titans are 6th (93.9). The Ravens pass defense has the edge, too. The Ravens allow just 179.7 pass yards per game (2nd in NFL) while the Titans allow 199.8 per game (9th). The Ravens intercepted 26 passes (1st) while the Titans intercepted 20. The Ravens also have some advantages offensively.

Baltimore averaged 324 yards of offense while the Titans averaged 314. The Titans averaged less then a yard more passing per game (176.2 to 175.5), but despite Tennessee's dangerous Chris Johnson-LenDale White duo, the Ravens have a much better rushing attack. The Ravens average 148.5 yards per game and the Titans average about 139 yards on the ground per game. Other reasons the Ravens have an advantage? After bad games, Joe Flacco has rebounded with good ones.

After bad games against Tennessee and Indianapolis, Flacco rebounded with great ones against the Dolphins, Raiders, Browns and Texans. After another bad game against New York, he had awesome games against Philadelphia and Cincinnati. After a bad game in a win over Washington and a horrible game against Pittsburgh, Flacco came up HUGE against Dallas and Jacksonville, leading Baltimore into the playoffs. Also, defensive linemen Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch are going to play, but are very banged up. Also, All-Pro Titans center Kevin Mawae won't play, forcing Leroy Harris to play. Under Mawae, Collins was sacked just 12 times. In the one game Harris played, Collins was sacked three times.

Ravens 16, Titans 13

In Week 11, the Steelers beat the Chargers, 11-10 in a defensive struggle.

“We moved the ball, but we sputtered in the red zone,” Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said. “We can't afford to do that. We can't turn the ball over. The big thing is we can drive up and down the field, but we have to be able to put the ball in when we get down there.”

It was the first game in NFL history ending in that score. Rivers struggled, going 15-of-26 with 159 yards and two interceptions and Ben Roethlisberger was 31-of-41 with 308 yards. But should I even start with the Chargers? That was a San Diego Chargers team that was 4-6 after that game and 4-8 two games later. Five games later, they are 9-8 and have a chance to get their revenge against Pittsburgh.

This is also a Chargers team who has Darren Sproles rising and not many can stop the guy when he gets rolling. This is also a Chargers team who beat Indianapolis last week, a team the Steelers were beaten by, 24-20 in Week ten. While the Pittsburgh Steelers have an incredible pass and rush defense, they aren't an immovable force. They allowed 31 points to a less explosive Tennessee Titans team. The Chargers defense stepped up to that same Colts team last week and allowed just 17 points.

Also, if the Chargers can lose to the Steelers by a close 11-10 score when they are doing horribly, imagine what they could do now. Despite the runs of the Ravens and Eagles, the Chargers are the real hottest team in the NFL. Days ago, running back LaDainian Tomlinson was ruled doubtful for the game tomorrow. But now, it doesn't seem to matter. Darren Sproles is on the rise. The last two games, he has carried the ball 37 times for 221 yards and has scored three touchdowns. Again, I know about how good the Steelers D is, but Sproles is harder to stop then most backs that the Steelers have faced this year.

“We did a great job defensively back there,” Turner said of that game. “We gave up a lot of yards, but we had a great goal-line stand and we held them out. As I said before the Indianapolis game, I believe we're a lot better team now than we were six weeks ago or eight weeks ago. So that's going to be a part of it. You're in the playoffs and you're playing a team that's got home-field advantage and is an outstanding team. We're going to have to be at our best.”

Chargers 20, Steelers 17

Sweet, sweet revenge.