Pac-12 Tournament 2012: How Top Teams Can Punch Tickets to Big Dance

Conferences don't get more mediocre than the Pac-12.

If the Big Dance were to start today, the general consensus is that the Pac-12 would be represented by just two teams: Washington and Cal. Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com both agree on those two. 

Alas, neither team is a lock for the Big Dance. No team in the Pac-12 is. Washington, Cal and fellow top seeds Oregon and Arizona need to do work in the Pac-12 tournament to punch their tickets to the Big Dance.

Here's a quick outline of what the top four seeds in the Pac-12 tournament have to do to make it to the NCAA Tournament.

Note: RPI numbers according to ESPN.com.

1. Washington Huskies (21-9, 14-4, RPI 57)

The Huskies are in pretty good shape after winning the regular-season conference title this past weekend. Their title doesn't leave them with nothing to prove, but it leaves them with less to prove.

The last thing Washington wants to do is come out and lose against either Washington State or Oregon State in the quarterfinals. A loss to either one of them will be a huge blow for Washington's Big Dance hopes, and would likely knock them out altogether. The Huskies just don't have an impressive resume to fall back on.

Joe Lunardi thinks it's going to take at least one more "quality" win for Washington to be safe. Washington State and Oregon State won't cut it in that regard, so indications are the Huskies have to make it all the way to the Pac-12 title game.

2. Cal Bears (23-8, 13-5, RPI 37)

Despite missing out on the regular-season title, Cal is in slightly better shape than Washington heading into the Pac-12 tournament. Their resume is strong enough to leave them with some wiggle room.

But not enough wiggle room for Cal to lose in the quarterfinals. The Bears don't want to drop another game to Stanford, and they certainly don't want to drop a game to Arizona State. Making it to the semifinals is a must.

Once there, the Bears will probably be okay. But to secure an at-large bid, a win in the semifinals can only help.

3. Oregon Ducks (22-8, 13-5, RPI 49)

Washington needs to get another quality win, Cal needs to avoid a bad loss. Oregon, on the other hand, needs at least two more wins to clinch a trip to the Big Dance.

Ideally, Oregon will play Colorado in the tournament quarterfinals, rather than No. 11-seed Utah. A win over the sixth-seeded Buffaloes won't look great, but it's a good first step.

After that, it's a simple matter of Oregon winning its semifinal matchup, preferably against Cal. That would put the Ducks in the title game with two additional shiny wins on their resume.

Obviously, a win in the title game would seal the deal, but it wouldn't be crucial as long as Oregon gets there.

4. Arizona Wildcats (21-10, 12-6, 76)

The Wildcats need to go to work in the Pac-12 tourney because their resume, unfortunately, tells a story of a team that didn't do enough work in the regular season.

To make up for their lackluster resume, the Wildcats absolutely have to go all the way to the conference final. Even then, they're not going to be safe. Lunardi says a trip to the final will put the Wildcats in the discussion. Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo! Sports says it will take a win in the conference final for Arizona to be totally safe.

So basically, the only way the Wildcats are going to be dancing for sure is if they win the whole thing.

No pressure.