SEC Tournament 2012: Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda

As the college basketball regular season comes to an end, we enter the always fun and exciting conference tournaments.  It's a chance for those programs who are on the bubble to put together a run for a bid to March Madness.

If you’re a team like LSU or Alabama, can you somehow knock off Kentucky and get an automatic berth?  Can Vanderbilt, who played extremely well in its recent victory over Florida, finally prove that it's as good as predicted early in the year?  Can Mississippi State turn things around this late into the season?

Who's your pick?  Who's my pick?  Lets take a look at three teams that could win, should win and possibly will win the tournament.

Vanderbilt Could Win in New Orleans

The Commodores drew the No. 3 seed in this week's SEC Tournament.  This means the only way they can meet up with the Wildcats is in the championship, and that’s where I see this team going.

Vanderbilt is a solid basketball club that is built on seniors and the ability to shoot the ball.  It's one of the few teams that has tested Kentucky, from the games I watched.  Although Vanderbilt lost both of them this year, it wasn't by much. 

Here is why Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament: Beyond the skill on the basketball court, I'm standing by my rule of "it's incredibly tough to beat a team three times in one season."  So, if UK and Vandy square off in the championship, as I see happening, the Commodores could walk away a winner. 

I watched this team beat Florida the other night, and I was impressed.  Remember that earlier this year, Vanderbilt had high expectations.  Coach Kevin Stallings has to have these guys ready to play, and of course, the sharp-shooting duo of John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor will have to be on. 

If Vandy wants to beat Kentucky, it will come down to can whether it can find a way to keep Anthony Davis away from the ball.  If the Commodores can get to the paint quickly and allow their big man, Festus Ezeli, to get to the hoop and work at getting Davis in foul trouble, then things will be looking bright for them. 

The other key is the ability to shoot the three. 

That will come with crisp ball movement from Brad Tinsley and the rest of the guards.  If they can eliminate bad turnovers, and Ezeli can work the paint, that will leave plenty of opportunities for Jenkins and Taylor to knock down long-distance shots.

Bulldogs Would Have a Chance But...

Mississippi State had every chance to be a solid team this year, and not to say it isn't anymore, but this current five-game losing streak has deflated the bubble for the Bulldogs. 

I'll be honest, when I watched them play UK a few weeks ago, I thought this team had it going on.  It's hard to look at this team—with guys like Dee Bost, Rodney Hood and Arnett Moultrie, who have a ton of talent—and see them slip this far down. 

Is it possible for them to still put on a good showing in this tournament?  Of course. 

Do I see it happening?  Not really. 

Maybe they get one win here, but I think this season has turned so quickly on this team that it will be hard to bounce back.  This became a tale of two seasons for the Bulldogs. 

Earlier this year, the team had three wins against top 50 teams and almost knocked out Baylor.  It was 13-2 before SEC play began.  From there, it’s been all downhill, as the Bulldogs are currently 6-8 in SEC play.

I think this team was one of the few teams that had the Wildcats at least 7.94 percent scared they might lose that game.  That is enough of a percentage to tell me that they had a legitimate shot at winning this tournament.  Everything revolves around the Cats, and the Bulldogs were one of the few teams that made me sit back and say, “They could win this game.” 

Right now, what’s happening to Mississippi State is like going to a roulette table and watching it hit red seven times in a row while your money is on black.  

Kentucky, the Ball Is in Your Court

Kentucky will enter this tournament as the No. 1 seed, as well as the top team in the nation.  The Wildcats should win this tournament. 

Will it be easy?  Maybe, and maybe not. 

Kentucky right now is the pretty girl at the dance.  Everyone wants to ask her to dance, but nobody has the guts yet. 

The Cats bring Anthony Davis to the court each night.  I don't need to explain what he has done for college basketball and Kentucky this year.  What is even crazier to think about is the fact that he might not even be the best player on his team; people will argue Michael Kidd-Gilchrist holds that card. 

The other thing to look at on this team is youth.  Is there enough leadership to get it done?

Looking at the schedule this team has played, it wasn't easy, but the Wildcats have managed to find the leadership needed.  You may be wondering how I can even question this team, as it has only one loss all season. 

Since the loss to IU, Kentucky hasn't been truly tested.  It has won every game by at least six points, except against Tennessee.  Most of those wins were double-digit wins.  Sure, Vanderbilt has challenged Kentucky twice this year, and Alabama dropped 71 points on the Wildcats and kept it close, but in the end, coaching and skill came into play. 

As far as talent, there isn't a better squad than Kentucky in the SEC.

This Kentucky team has one loss all season, and it came at the hands of Indiana.  The one thing that worries me about this team is that it hasn't lost since that game.  I've always thought that a team doesn't want to go into the playoffs—or, in this case, March Madness—on a massive win streak.  My gut always says something bad will happen. 

Would a loss in the SEC Tournament be a good thing for these guys?  Let's say UK is upset in the final game, you don’t think that would motivate John Calipari and the Wildcats even more?

Kentucky is on such a higher level then anyone in the SEC right now.  Its defense shut down Florida for eight minutes in yesterday’s victory.  The Wildcats once again proved that even when a team can make it close, they'll turn on the boosters and drain the opposition.

My prediction is that UK wins this tournament, but it wont come easy.  Teams will be out to knock the Wildcats off.

Got a question or comment?  Chances are, I’ll use it down the line.  Shoot me a note at [e-mail] or on Twitter @ BillBiz22.