2012 NFL Mock Draft: First-Round Picks That Will Not Change
Who is such a lock to go to said team that his jersey may as well be printed already? There are a few players whose destinations are a forgone conclusion.
It comes down to team need, player talent and availability. When those things align, it is pretty easy to predict those situations.
As we quickly approach the April 26 NFL draft, the pieces are falling into place. Here is a first-round mock draft, with a spotlight on the selection locks within the first round.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
It's been a while since a player was so predestined for one team so early in the draft process. Andrew Luck has been headed to the Indianapolis Colts since October when it was clear the Colts were headed for a dreadful season and that Luck would indeed have yet another stellar collegiate campaign.
Why is he locked into Indianapolis?
The Colts have prepared themselves to move past the Peyton Manning era.
Luck couldn't have come along at a better time considering the team's QB and ownership situation. The team is in major transition, and the two biggest factors in a team's identity is the GM and the franchise QB. Jim Irsay has already changed GMs, now he is ready for a new man under center.
You can print up the No. 12 jerseys.
2. Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (via trade with St. Louis)
Some may think this is a lock as well, but I only partially agree. RG3 will definitely be selected here, but no one knows if it will be the Browns or Redskins holding the pick..
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The moment Kalil crossed the 40-yard dash finish line at the NFL Combine in less than five seconds, he was a lock for Minnesota. The Vikings could have previously entertained thoughts of taking a WR, but Kalil's performance at the combine proved he's an elite OT prospect.
The way the Vikings failed to protect the QB in 2011, that is something they can't afford to pass up.
Why is he locked into Minnesota?
The Vikings gave up 49 sacks in 2011. That is no way to preserve or accurately evaluate a young QB. If Christian Ponder is going to ever become the Vikings' franchise QB, he has to get adequate protection. He also needs weapons, but the protection comes first.
If he fails to make strides, they know they must go in a different direction. The worst-case scenario is they still have a quality young LT to protect Ponder's replacement.
4. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
This is Blackmon for now, but there are plenty of uncertainties with trades.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Claiborne's combine performance wasn't stellar, but it also wasn't bad enough to make teams forget about his awesome collegiate career.
6. Washington Redskins: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Floyd's performance at the combine will land him in the top 10. When the 'Skins can't get RG3, they will still look to bolster the offense.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina
With the two best WRs off the board, the Jags can't pass on this pass-rusher.
8. Carolina Panthers: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
I haven't changed this picked in three weeks. Coples is a great match for the Panthers weak defense.
9. Miami Dolphins: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Reiff and Jake Long make the Dolphins a formidable offensive line. That is a far cry from a team that gave up 52 sacks in 2011.
10. Buffalo Bills: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
The Bills need a pass-rusher and after Coples and Ingram, Upshaw is the best available.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Chiefs already have Jamal Charles, but he is coming off a serious knee injury. Richardson is the best player at his position and durable, the Chiefs must make this pick.
Why is he locked into Kansas City?
Two-back offenses are the norm in the NFL. With Charles coming off a knee injury, the Chiefs need depth at the RB spot, as well as a player that can be a feature back in the event Charles does not return to form.
Richardson is a potential superstar and a perfect complement to Charles' speedy style.
It's the classic case of a no-lose situation.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Wright's combine 40 time wasn't stunning, but scouts understand field speed is different. He still has first-round talent.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Martin is a safe pick for the Cardinals. They allowed the second most sacks of any team in the NFL in 2011.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
The Cowboys have had a history of taking talented players with some off-the-field issues. Jenkins will be the newest player that fits the description.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Dontari Poe, DT Memphia
The Eagles' run defense struggled early, and though they would like a receiver, they can't ignore the super-human combine performance by Poe.
16. New York Jets: Michael Brockers DE/DT LSU
Brockers may seem a bit light for the tackle spot in the Jets' scheme, but his versatility to play anywhere on the defensive line makes him an asset.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
Miller gives the Bengals a receiving threat out of the backfield. That is a new weapon for the Bengals.
18. San Diego Chargers: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
After San Diego loses Vincent Jackson in free agency, Jeffery makes sense for them here.
19. Chicago Bears: Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin
It seems like a reach, but with the receivers the Bears' covet gone, they still need a player at this position.
20. Tennessee Titans: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
Titans would love to have Poe slip, but he won't. Still is a nice defensive line prospect, though.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech
Hosley is an exceptional athlete and the Bengals have a strong need for a CB.
22. St. Louis Rams: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
The Rams O-line was an issue last year. DeCastro is the best guard in the draft and this is a nice pick as an add-in from the RG3 trade.
23. Detroit Lions: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
I love Minnifield's athleticism, and the Lions pass defense was a bit suspect in 2011.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma
Lewis is a great pick for the Steelers here. He can develop into James Harrison's eventual replacement.
25. Denver Broncos: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
At 6'4" and 215 pounds, Hill put on a marvelous display at the combine. Tim Tebow needs explosive weapons, and Hill has the potential to be just that.
26. Houston Texans: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU
Randle performed well at the combine, and he fills a need with Andre Johnson hampered by injuries..
27. New England Patriots: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Gilmore was already projected in this area, but his solid combine makes him a great pick for the Pats here.
28. Green Bay Packers: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Scott Wells still hasn't signed, so that makes it look even more like he will hit the free-agent market. Konz is a solid replacement if the Packers lose Wells.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
Hightower will get the opportunity to learn from the best that ever played the MLB position.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
With the Niners having two DBs possibly headed to free agency, it makes sense to take the best available to replace one of them.
31. New England Patriots: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois
Mercilus seems like the type of player who will thrive in the Patriots system as a pass-rusher.
32. New York Giants: Chris Polk, RB, Washington
The Super Bowl champs need to think about the future of their backfield.
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