Weekly NFL Picks: Divisional Playoffs

I'm still feeling a bit ill after listening to Thom Brenneman profess his love of Tim Tebow throughout the broadcast of the BCS national title game. Regardless, it's time for the divisional round NFL picks, and I couldn't be more excited.

After spending 14.5 hours watching every snap of NFL football played last weekend, I am prepared for a similar feat this weekend.

Last weekend didn't pan out as well as I had hoped. A last-second switch prevented a 1-3 weekend for me—Arizona saved me, as I lost out by picking Indianapolis and Minnesota.

The top pair of teams in each conference hit the field after a weekend off. Will the bye week help or hurt the teams?

Let's get to the picks.

Baltimore over Tennessee

Only because I have to.

Of the four divisional-round games, I only picked one correctly, and this was it. In my full playoff prediction (check out my blog for that), I picked the Ravens to upset the Titans in Nashville.

As the week progressed, I have become more and more concerned with Baltimore's chances. Both teams have a defense capable of winning a Super Bowl title and both sport a solid two-pronged rushing attack.

The difference is the man behind center. Tennessee starting quarterback Kerry Collins started Super Bowl XXXV (against the Ravens, ironically) while Joe Flacco has exactly one postseason start. Taking a rookie quarterback to win, on the road, in the playoffs, is a tough sell.

But I'm doing it. Because I have to.

Carolina over Arizona

The Panthers must be careful in this game. If the Cardinals get their pass game rolling, Carolina's 18th-ranked pass defense may be in trouble.

With that being said, it's going to be awfully tough for Arizona to get rolling without a healthy Anquan Boldin. Carolina will likely double Larry Fitzgerald to make the likes of Steve Breaston beat them.

Arizona did a solid job of containing Michael Turner, the league's second-leading rusher, last weekend. A raucous home crowd had a good bit to do with that and the Cards won't have that crowd to help them contain DeAngelo Williams.

New York over Philadelphia

For the last month, I've written the same thing about the Eagles. I'm not breaking the streak today.

The Eagles are vastly overrated and cannot perform against a strong team, especially on the road.

I thought the Cowboys and Vikings were stronger than they were, but their play against the Eagles in Philly's last two games proved me wrong. The Giants, however, won't.

The defending Super Bowl champs are healthy and rested, and if they needed any more motivation, they got it when the hated Eagles drew Sunday afternoon's ticket to the Meadowlands.

Two plays—Asante Samuel's interception touchdown and Brian Westbrook's 71-yard touchdown—pulled the Eagles through to this weekend. They will need much more than that to get past the NFC's top squad...And they won't get it.

Pittsburgh over San Diego

When it comes down to tough picks, I go back to the predictions I made before the playoffs began. And this game is decided exactly that way.

I don't believe in the hype San Diego is drawing as of late. Peyton Manning threw for more than 300 yards and Reggie Wayne tore the Chargers apart last weekend. While Ben Roethlisberger is no Peyton Manning, he is capable of beating down an underachieving defensive secondary.

The Chargers do have the capability of going into Heinz Field and leaving with the victory. After all, San Diego is 2-0 in Pittsburgh in playoff games, including last year's divisional-round victory.

Pittsburgh's defense, and the running game in support of Roethlisberger and the ill effects of the Week 17 concussion, gives the Steelers the slight edge and sends Mike Tomlin's crew to the AFC Championship next weekend.

Last week: 2-2

Overall record: 164-93-1