RGIII vs. Blackmon: Who's the Biggest Bust Risk?

One of the worst fates that can befall any NFL team is for a top draft pick to flop as a professional, as the last thing a losing squad needs is for the jewel of its draft to turn out to be just another rock.

Of the top five picks in my latest 2012 mock draft here at Bleacher Report, two of the top four picks in this April's draft are pretty safe bets, as there's little doubt that Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck and USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil will be standouts in the National Football League. But for the other half of that quartet, the risk of disappointment is significantly higher.

Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin has been one of the most talked-about players entering this year's draft as teams clamor for the right to trade up and secure the Rams' second overall pick. RGIII is absolutely deserving of all the praise he is getting, as the 6'2", 223-pound Heisman Trophy winner followed up a scintillating 2011 season with an outstanding showing at the NFL Scouting Combine.

However, Griffin isn't without his flaws. He played mostly in the spread offense at Baylor and has a tendency to take his eyes off his receivers once he scrambles with the ball, and some aren't sold that Griffin is worth the ransom the Rams will likely demand for the rights to draft him, including Mike Wise of the Washington Post:

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Look, Robert Griffin III is a special quarterback capable of having a successful NFL career of 10 years or more. ...

But no one knows for certain if he will be a Pro Bowler, if he can dissect NFL defenses the way he dissected an Alamo Bowl opponent.

I hate to break this to everyone, but someone wins the Heisman Trophy every year, and often it’s a quarterback. In fact, Gino Torretta has a trophy, too.

"

Should the Rams indeed trade down and procure the Cleveland Browns' fourth overall pick, it's very likely that St. Louis would use that pick on wide receiver Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State, given their desperate need for a wide receiver with Brandon Lloyd likely to depart in free agency.

Blackmon was a ridiculously productive pass-catcher while in Stillwater, as the 6'1", 207-pound All-American racked up 232 receptions for 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns while winning back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as college football's top wideout the past two seasons.

However, the Cowboys' standout isn't especially tall like Calvin Johnson, nor exceptionally fast. Some pundits who aren't high on the idea of Blackmon being a top-five pick point to another recently drafted Big 12 receiver who was wildly productive in college as a cautionary tale. ESPN's Christopher Harris recently compared Blackmon to former Texas Tech star and current NFL flop Michael Crabtree:

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When you watch Blackmon's highlight reel of insane catches and powerful moves over the middle, it's easy to understand why people get so excited about him. But is he really a franchise receiver, worthy of a top-five NFL pick? I have to say, I'm dubious. He has amazing hands. He has physical tools to get him free from press coverage. But will he beat anyone deep, or will he be a hybrid possession receiver?

"

This isn't to say that both Robert Griffin and Justin Blackmon won't turn out to be stars in the National Football League, as they are immensely talented youngsters who would certainly seem to have the physical tools to excel at the next level, but there is a risk that three years from now the teams that draft these Big 12 big shots may be reaching for the Pepto-Bismol instead of the Lombardi Trophy.

So that begs the question posed in the title...of the pair, which player is more likely to make like a pancake and fall flat?

My money would be on Robert Griffin III, but it's not really his fault, as not only will Griffin have to live up to the expectations of being the second overall pick and the added pressure of likely starting from day one at quarterback, but his career will always be intertwined with those of the players drafted with the picks it took to obtain him.

In the end, that may just be too much pressure for his numbers to bear, earning him a "bust" label that he may well not actually deserve.