Kansas-Michigan State Preview: Rebounding and Defense Key to Jayhawks' Chances

Sherron Collins and the Jayhawks felt terrible after getting drubbed by the Arizona Wildcats on Dec. 23. The Jayhawks hadn't seen a road defeat that bad in recent memory. Luckily enough for them, they had the opportunity to get back on their feet with three solid victories in Phog Allen Fieldhouse, one of which came over a ranked opponent in Tennessee.

Saturday, KU will be facing off against Tom Izzo and his Michigan State squad (No. 12 AP Poll) in East Lansing. The game will definitely be an uphill battle for the Jayhawks, who feel they have a lot to prove since their last road game ended in such a bad defeat against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats. While a win is not too probable, it isn't out of the question for the Jayhawks.

Keys to the Game

If the Jayhawks are going to head out of the "Izzone" with a victory in tow, they are going to have to do a number of things very well—the first of which is rebounding. Michigan State averages 14 offensive rebounds a game. KU will have to at least cut that number in half to have a shot at winning.

The Spartans attack the glass on both ends of the court, but their work on the offensive end gets them crucial second chance points, and if that happens on Saturday, the Jayhawks may be facing a long game.

The second of my keys would be to guard extremely tight. Michigan State has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the entire country (something that equates to 4.5/1). KU needs to do their best to cut off passing lanes and make it tough for the Spartans to whip the ball inside and out with pace.

Transition defense could be the final defensive key to this game. KU has struggled at times in this department, and if Michigan State has as much success as Tennessee did in the second half of last weekend's game, the Spartans will run away with this one.

KU's lack of transition defense has a lot to do with their youth. It's tough for KU fans to watch the Morris twins trying to get back only to miss their man, or for Tyshawn Taylor to make an absolutely crucial defensive mistake, when just last year Brandon Rush, Russell Robinson, and Mario Chalmers could have written a how-to book on transition defense.

Finally, Cole Aldrich has done a great job of late of staying out of foul trouble. He has been cerebral on the defensive end, leaving his feet at the right time, going for the blocks at the right time, and refusing to commit stupid fouls. Now if the Morris twins and Taylor could take a hint from Aldrich and do the same, KU has the depth to remain competitive for the full 40 minutes.

Offensively, KU is going to have to shoot a percentage around the 55 percent mark. Even more crucial will be the three-point percentage. They need to get that around 36 percent to have a chance. Morningstar, Collins, and Taylor need to light it up early, and Tyrell Reed needs to be effective from behind the line, coming off the bench.

Obviously, there is one key for me every game on the offensive end for the Jayhawks, and that is that they must run the offense through Cole Aldrich every time down the floor. He must touch it at least once in the block. The high-low will work only with precision passing, and I haven't seen too much of that with the Morris twins when facing tougher opponents, but that is to be expected.

Interesting Fact(s)

KU's last day game on CBS (during the regular season) did not end well. They lost to Oklahoma State 61-60 in Stillwater before sweeping the rest of the season and winning the National Championship. They've lost to teams like Villanova and Arizona on CBS in less recent day games on CBS.

Prediction Time

I am saving one fact for my prediction. When KU scores 70 or more points, they hardly ever get beat. (I don't know the exact record, but I guarantee the winning percentage is greater than 90 percent). If KU can get into the 70s, they will have a shot. Since most of the people I've read who have already made their predictions are picking MSU, I am going to be a total homer.

Kansas 85, Michigan State 79