NCAA Tournament Bubble Tracker: Who's Still on the Bubble? Will They Get In?

March is coming quickly and that means multiple teams will be sweating it out until Selection Sunday to find out if they will be playing for the national championship.

The conference season is coming to an end and those teams that have not yet proven to the selection committee that they are a lock for a tournament spot are still waiting on the bubble.

In the end, nothing is certain until that Sunday rolls along, but the following will break down just who is still on the bubble and whether or not they will get in. 

California Golden Bears

Record: 23-7 (13-4 conference)

 Analysis:  The Pac-12 is by no means an impressive conference when it comes to basketball.

As such, every game counts because a loss to a lesser team here could be disastrous, as it is hard to get a high-profile win later.

For California, the Golden Bears faltered in their play against Oregon State and Washington Stage, but were able to record six top-100 wins.

Many already have California in their brackets, the only problem that remains is that the Bears’ last two games are on the road and two losses in a row would do nothing to help California’s chances.

Verdict: In right now

Cincinnati Bearcats

Record: 20-9 (10-6 conference)

Analysis: Most teams use the non-conference schedule to bolster their chances of making it into the NCAA tournament.

Cincinnati would rather the selection committee forget such a thing even exists.

The Bearcats had one of the worst (matchup based) non-conference schedules in the country and they only managed to go 10-3, a record not very impressive given the teams they faced.

With a win against Marquette, Cincinnati can lock in a tournament spot.

In the end, there are other teams with a better chance to impress than Cincinnati.

The Bearcats would already be a shoe-in were it not for the losses to St. John’s, Presbyterian and Rutgers.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning in

Colorado State Rams

Record: 17-10 (6-6 conference)

Analysis: Colorado State is the epitome of a home-court team.

With quality wins over New Mexico and San Diego State at home, the Rams thrust themselves back into the race for a tournament bid.

The only problem is that road-game performances have been less than stellar.

If the Rams can pull out a victory versus UNLV at home and then travel to Air Force and win again, they should be able to secure themselves a spot, assuming a respectable performance in postseason play.

Verdict: In right now

Drexel Dragons

Record: 25-5 (16-2 conference)

Analysis: The majority of Drexel’s losses came in the first six games of the season. Since then the Dragons have won 23 of their last 24 games and played some very impressive basketball.

What hurts Drexel the most is that it plays in the CAA and no one is quite sure how the selection committee is going to handle the conference this year.

It also does not help that the Dragons did not pick up any significant wins in non-conference play to make up for their weak schedule.

Verdict: Firmly on the fence

Iona Gaels

Record: 24-6 (15-3 conference)

Analysis: The Iona Gaels have a respectable record, but it comes against teams not likely to appear in the NCAA tournament.

That fact is what is going to hurt this team.

Against Purdue, the toughest team on Iona’s schedule, the Gaels lost by only one point.

Another determining factor is that Iona dropped two games to teams ranked outside of the top 200.

Iona has a chance, but it needs to prove something with what is left of this season.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning in

Long Beach 49ers

Record: 21-7 (14-0 Big West)

Analysis: Long Beach is the perfect example of how a non-conference schedule can aid a team in its tournament chances.

They had one of the toughest in the country, facing off against then five top-15 teams and, for the most part, playing them well.

On the conference side, a perfect season is nothing to scoff at. That said, it would have done wonders for the 49ers to get a top-50 win and show they can play with the big boys.

If they can reach the championship game in the conference tournament the selection committee will likely give them the nod.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning in

Miami Hurricanes

Record: 17-10 (8-6 conference)

Analysis: The win over Florida State put the Hurricanes in a pretty spot when it comes to receiving an at-large bid.

On top of that, the win at Duke is going to create some nice padding for the Miami.

That said, there are really not many other impressive wins outside of those two.

The only chance that Miami has is to win out and impress the selection committee in the conference tournament. A championship game appearance, although unlikely, would pretty much guarantee a bid to the tournament.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning off 

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 19-10 (6-8 conference)

Analysis: The Mississippi State Bulldogs were feeling pretty good about this season, until a five-game skid hit the team.

Now, the Bulldogs are riding the bubble all the way until Selection Sunday and could very well face disappointment soon.

The only facts to boost the resume of Mississippi State are victories against Vanderbilt, Alabama, West Virginia and Arizona.

If this team continues to drop games on a consistent basis they will not be chosen for the tournament.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning in

Northwestern Wildcats

Record: 17-11 (7-9 conference)

Analysis: The Northwestern Wildcats have a spotless record against teams ranked outside of the top 100.

That said, they are only 6-11 against the RPI Top 100, which could be a damaging factor when it comes to Selection Sunday.

What Wildcat fans can bank on is the win against then No. 7 ranked Michigan State, which is now being considered as a legitimate national title contender. On top of that, the Wildcats pulled out a one-point win against Penn State, a match some considered to be a trap game.

If Northwestern can garner another significant win against Ohio State they will be a lock for the tournament.

Verdict: In right now

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Record: 26-5 (17-1 conference)

Analysis:  Oral Roberts managed to pull out a Summit League championship this regular season.

The Golden Eagles grabbed an impressive victory at Xavier, but their record still lacks a good amount of quality wins. They went an unimpressive 3-2 against opponents ranked between the top 50 and top 100.

Oral Roberts has to maintain its momentum through the Summit League conference tournament and hope for some help along the way from other teams to aid in its effort.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning in

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Record: 19-11 (9-6 conference)

Analysis: The fact of the matter with Saint Joseph’s is that they only have impressive wins at home.

They did pull in some big wins against Temple and Creighton, going 2-1 against top-25 teams, but that might not be enough to bring them a bid.

The Hawks are going to need some help from other teams and one last road win before the committee can look at them.

Verdict: On the fence, falling off 

Saint Louis Billikens

Record: 22-6 (10-4 conference)

Analysis: The best part of this season for the Saint Louis Billikens have been the six wins against teams ranked in the top 100.

The worst part of this season is the fact that Saint Louis has no wins against teams in the top 50.

The Billikens currently sit at second place in the Atlantic 10, knocking off other tournament hopeful Xavier, but losing to conference leader (and only team ranked in the top 25) Temple.

Saint Louis is going to have to prove something in the conference tournament to lock in its spot, but its win against Xavier is promising. A loss early or even a failure to show up in the championship game may spell doom for this squad.

Verdict: In right now

South Florida Bulls

Record: 18-5 (11-5 Big East)

Analysis:  The win over Cincinnati did more to hurt the Bearcats than it did to help the Bulls.

To sum up USF's season: 1-7 record against top 50 teams, 4-10 road/neutral record and zero impressive non-conference wins.

The only way that the Bulls will make an appearance in the tournament is if they manage to improve that stat sheet with two wins over Louisville and West Virginia or if a miracle occurs in the conference tournament. 

Verdict: On the fence, falling off

Texas Longhorns

Record: 18-11 (8-8 conference)

Analysis: The Texas Longhorns do not often find themselves on the bubble, but this year they have really done nothing more than disappoint.

They have let big games slip out of their grip, including a marquee potential win against Baylor, and have not capitalized on their talent.

Texas has one more shot at a resume builder when they go on the road to face Kansas.

A win in Allen Fieldhouse is just as impressive as a deep run in the tournament. The only problem is such a win is next to impossible.

Outside of that, only a conference tournament run can help this team, but that is unlikely with three top 10 teams to face off against.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning off

University of Central Florida Knights

Record: 20-8 (9-5 conference)

Analysis: The UCF Knights are banking on a win against Connecticut (then ranked fourth in the nation) to be the decider for the tournament chances.

So are the 11 other teams that beat the Huskies.

This one win is not going to give them a bid, especially after their loss to Rice and the thrashing by Memphis.

UCF has not won more than three games against teams ranked in the top 100, a statistic that is going to weigh more heavily than that win over the Huskies.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning off 

West Virginia Mountaineers

Record: 17-12 (7-9 conference)

Analysis:  West Virginia has only won two games in its last nine attempts.

Any team in that situation should just kiss its tournament hopes goodbye.

However, the Mountaineers can claim four top 50 wins over Cincinnati, Georgetown, Kansas State and Miami, which helps bolster the numbers looked at by the selection committee.

If West Virginia drops its last two it will have to work magic in the conference tournament to show that it is worth a second look.

The computer always helps a team like this.

Verdict: In right now

Xavier Musketeers

Record: 18-10 (9-5 conference)

Analysis:  Before the infamous fight with Cincinnati, the Xavier Musketeers held a premature locked spot in the tournament.

Since the blows were thrown, Xavier has gone 10-10, losing three of its last six games.

The Musketeers' biggest wins came during the non-conference schedule, highlighted by a win against Vanderbilt.

Besides that, Xavier has proven that they can only play good basketball at home.

The Musketeers' chances of making the tournament took a blow with the loss to Saint Louis, but a final-game loss could do even more damage.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning in 

Washington Huskies

Record: 20-8 (13-3 conference)

Analysis: Washington’s biggest factor is that it currently leads the Pac-12.

Not a wholly impressive conference, but a major conference championship team is not one to be left out of the tournament.

What really hurts the Huskies is their pitiful performance during non-conference play. During this time they did not garner any terrible losses, they just did not live up to their talent and the computer numbers will reflect these losses.

Winning out on the road will definitely improve its chances, but Washington has to maintain its momentum in the conference tournament.

Verdict: On the fence, leaning in