NCAA Basketball: Bubble Watch Continues to Heat Up

We're now only three days from the month of March, and in the world of college basketball, that means it's the most exciting time of the year. Hell, I'll say it—it IS the most exciting time of the year, period.

Granted, that's coming from a guy who attends the University of Kentucky (number one!).

Still, I'm a sports lover, not just a home-team loving, arrogant fan. Therefore, my belief is that the bubble watch provides some of the best basketball we will see, even if it's among the mid-major teams.

That being said, how does the bubble watch look today, February 27?

In: Xavier

Do you all remember when the Xavier Musketeers were a top 10 team and were even in the discussion as a potential Final Four team?

Yeah, that does seem like forever ago.

Of all the teams currently on my "In" list, they're the ones who are in the most trouble. 13 of Xavier's 18 wins have come against teams with an RPI ranking of 100 or more. So why are they still in?

The Muskies have decent wins over Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, and Purdue (a fellow bubble team). That gives them some credit, plus Xavier really has a chance to bulk up its resume with a win over Saint Louis tomorrow night (they too are a bubble team).

I'd say winning their final two games would lock them in. A win over Saint Louis should get them in—and losing both would likely destroy them.

In: Iowa State

The Cyclones are currently 21-8 overall with a decent 11-5 record in the Big 12.  They've got two massive regular season games left at Missouri and at home against Baylor. Both of those teams are locks to be in the NCAA Tournament.

Should Iowa State win at least one of those games, go ahead and prepare for them because they'll be in the field.  Win neither and more problems will arise. They would then need a pretty good showing in the Big 12 tournament.

While there's no doubt the Cyclones have a decent resume (wins over Kansas and Kansas State), their big downfall is a lack of good wins. 17 of their wins are against teams with an RPI of 100 or higher—that won't impress the committee very much.

Over the next couple of weeks, the Cyclones need to be ready to play.

In: Northwestern

The Northwestern Wildcats are so close to their first NCAA Tournament bid, they can taste it.  The team is 17-11, but only 7-9 in the Big Ten. 

The good news for them is that they have six wins against the top 100 teams—not much, but it's better than quite a large portion of the bubble teams. However, a season sweep at the hands of the Purdue Boilermakers really hurts the Wildcats.

They've got a victory over Michigan State and no bad losses, so that's a couple of positives.  With games left against Ohio State and Iowa, they can really solidify themselves as a legitimate team by winning both. I doubt they'd suffer for losing to the Buckeyes, but a loss to the Hawkeyes could be fatal.

Granted, the Big Ten tournament is still on the horizon.

In: Miami (FL)

I understand that the Hurricanes are only 4-10 against the top 100, and 13-0 against everyone else. They're 17-10 on the season.

Still, their worst loss of the year is at Maryland, and that's not an easy venue to win at. Miami has defeated Duke (at Duke) this season and took down Florida State yesterday.

With two games left against NC State and Boston College, Miami should win their final two.  Barring an epic first round debacle in the ACC tournament, that should be enough to get Miami in.

Out: Texas

While the Longhorns have the 26th-ranked strength of schedule, having only four wins against the top 100 won't be enough. Not only that, but they've got two bad losses against teams outside of the top 100.

Victories over Kansas State and Temple are good, plus the win against bubble-opponent Iowa State is helpful. Still, there aren't enough quality wins here and most of their wins have come at home anyway.

Texas will need a good Big 12 tournament showing to make a tourney appearance.

Out: Arizona

When your biggest win on the season is at Cal, there's a problem. Arizona's strength of schedule is ranked 96th—and they've lost nine games.

The Wildcats have only four wins in the top 100 (one in the top 50), and have a loss outside the top 100.

It doesn't help that they were swept by Washington and beaten by Colorado. Overall, despite a 21-9 record, Arizona is currently on the outside looking in.

In: Seton Hall

A 19-10 overall record isn't bad, but the 8-9 Big East record comes into play.  We all understand how tough that conference is, but the Pirates could've used a couple more good wins than they have.

Still, they've got an impressive eight victories against the top 100, and three of those came against the top 50.  Losses to Rutgers and Villanova on the other hand, not so great.

Only one game remains on the regular season schedule, and that should be a win at Depaul.  If the Pirates can get at least a couple wins in the Big East tournament, that should be enough to lock them into the NCAA field.

Out: Oral Roberts

In all likelihood, Oral Roberts is going to win the Summit League and go to the tournament anyway, but for the sake of argument, let's discuss their resume.

Their strength of schedule is 172nd in the nation, and they've lost five times.  On the flip side, they've won 26 times.

Three of those 26 have come against top 100 teams, including at Xavier.  The big problem is that they've got two losses outside the top 100 (one outside the top 200).

This scrappy team will likely win their conference, and they had better take care of business, because this resume won't get them an at-large bid.

Out: Dayton

Eight big wins against the top 100 would usually be enough for a team like Dayton to get a bid.

Unfortunately, they have a whopping four losses against teams outside the top 100, two of which are outside the top 200.  That is enough to almost completely shut out those eight big victories. 

At 18-10, the Flyers are in a lot of trouble and will most likely need an A-10 title to sneak into the NCAA tournament.  Two remaining games against Richmond and George Washington won't help them much, but can surely hurt them. 

Losing even one would eliminate them.