How Northwestern Can (and Might Just Need To) Beat Ohio State

With only two regular season games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament, the Wildcats are still clinging to the hope that they will earn Northwestern’s first ever NCAA Tournament berth.  On Wednesday, they host Ohio State at Welsh-Ryan Arena in a crucial rematch. 

The last time the two teams played was an embarrassing 33-point blowout in which the Buckeyes pulled down 19 more rebounds than the ‘Cats.  It was only one of three games this season that Northwestern logged more turnovers than assists. 

Heading into this game, Northwestern is coming off a less than stellar performance in a one-point victory against the bottom-feeding Nittany Lions. Ohio State has lost three of its past five games and is showing vulnerability. 

However, Ohio State’s recent inconsistency has dropped the team in the rankings, so a loss here for the ‘Cats cannot be shrugged off merely as a game in which they had no shot. 

Furthermore, Northwestern is solidly on the bubble, and in the case of upsets in mid-major tournaments, unpredicted teams receiving bids might just push Northwestern out of the Tournament.  If the Wildcats want to guarantee themselves a spot at the Dance, they need to beat Ohio State and move themselves off the bubble. 

To find that win, Northwestern must rely on its star player.  John Shurna is leading the Big Ten in scoring, and he is the conference’s only player turning in over 20 ppg.

The past several weeks of Big Ten play have seen "Mr. Consistent" at his finest, delivering on both the offensive and defensive ends.  Against Minnesota on February 18 he broke Northwestern’s scoring record, and he can be the first Wildcat ever to break the 2000 point mark if he continues scoring at his current rate. 

As Shurna is quick to point out, he could not do it without his teammates.  Dave Sobolewski is the teammate that has stepped up recently and looks anything but a freshman. 

On the year he is averaging 35.6 minutes per game, 9.2 ppg, is shooting 38.1 percent from behind the arc and 74.7 percent from the line, and is leading the Big Ten with a 2.9 assist to turnover ratio. 

Sobolewski recently poured in 22 against Minnesota and 23 against Iowa and is developing into a serious offensive threat. 

However, the Buckeyes also have a weapon at guard who needs to be contained.  William Buford added 28 points in their last meeting, and Sobolewski will need to force him into tough shots in order for the ‘Cats to have a chance.

On defense, it is even more important that the man in the middle, Jared Sullinger, is stopped.  Northwestern is consistently outscored in the paint, and Sullinger has the potential to rip apart the Wildcats’ defense. 

Bill Carmody should forgo his smaller lineup and start Davide Curletti to both slow Sullinger and also provide size in the middle to battle for rebounds.  Northwestern is by far the worst rebounding team in the Big Ten, and the ‘Cats have no chance in this one if they allow Ohio State, averaging 6.6 rpg more than the 'Cats, second chance opportunities. 

In addition to focusing on the Buckeyes’ strengths, Carmody needs to prepare his team to utilize its own strong points. 

Northwestern is second in the conference in 3-point attempts as well as second in 3-point field goal percentage.  Ohio State is second to last in attempts and ninth in percent made, so the ‘Cats must dominate from behind the arc. 

Also, the charity stripe will be a battlefield in this contest.  Neither team is shooting very well from the line, but Welsh-Ryan has seen the worst free throw shooting from conference opponents out of any Big Ten arena. 

Northwestern needs to hit the shots it is given: threes and free throws.  Carmody also cannot rely too heavily on the 1-3-1 defense, or threes in the corners and big men down low will burn Northwestern. 

Factors that no stat can ever predict often make the difference in college basketball, especially at this point in the season.  The ‘Cats need this game, but if they really want it, then they will have a lot to prove on their home court on senior night.