Florida-Oklahoma: The B/R Guide To the BCS Championship Game

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Florida Gators vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Jan. 8, 2009, 8 p.m. EST

Dolphins Stadium, Miami, FL

Opening Spread: Florida -3

How they got here…

The No. 1 Oklahoma Sooners blitzed through the regular season to the tune of a 12-1 record. They set a record for most points scored in a season with a game to spare. Their only slip-up was a 45-35 loss to Texas, the team they controversially passed up in order to make it to the conference title game. OU destroyed Missouri to claim yet another Big 12 title in the Bob Stoops era.

The No. 2 Florida Gators didn’t get off to the most graceful start, and they fell by one point at home in a shocker to Ole Miss. After an emotional promise by quarterback Tim Tebow that he would make the team play better, UF tore through the rest of the season like a well-oiled buzz saw. They defeated the previously unbeaten Alabama Crimson Tide in an instant-classic SEC Championship Game to punch their ticket to Miami.

Statistically speaking…

Oklahoma famously became the first team to score 60 points in five consecutive games. Their ability to score in big quantities was in large part due to their hurry up offense which allowed them to run a nation-best 79.69 plays per game.

Florida was historically good at blowouts too. This year’s Gators became the first team ever to win six consecutive SEC games by 28 points or more. They tied the record set by the 1996 Florida team with five conference games won by 30 points or more.

A more fully-fleshed out analysis on how pace and timing may or may not affect each teams' defensive stats is here.

Using my score projection system that generates scores based on how teams did relative to their opposition throughout the year (see here for details, if you want them), this game projects as a 41-39 Florida win. Partisanship aside, I hope it will be that close because it would be nice to end a season with a thriller for the first time since 2005.

Oklahoma will win if…

It controls the tempo of the game.

While Florida has been employing some creative tactics in practice for simulating the fast-paced Sooner offense, there’s no substitute for seeing it in a game. Only one team is used to playing up tempo, and it won’t be the guys in orange and blue.

Florida’s defense, and especially the line, has relied a lot on substitution to stay fresh this season, but the fast pace will prevent them from switching guys in and out as much as they want to. If Oklahoma can sustain the pace against a normally disruptive defense, those Gator defenders may find themselves gassed as the game wears on.

Given the lightning-fast ability to score that the OU offense has, the snowball effect is very familiar to Sooner fans. Because Florida has the ability to score quickly too, any lead that isn’t big isn’t safe. Pushing the tempo and getting some easier points that way would be a tremendous help to the cause.

Florida will win if…

It really is the faster team by a noticeable margin.

Oklahoma’s offensive line is big, but Texas DE Brian Orakpo showed how speed can be used to get by it:

Defensive line speed is not the end of it though. The fast guys on offense—you know the names: Harvin, Demps, Rainey, Murphy, etc.—will need to be used appropriately and liberally to make sure the Gators can get a lead and extend it. As I said, small leads are almost worthless in this game.

Oklahoma recruits some of the nation’s best and generally cleans up in Texas, which is one of the three best recruiting states along with Florida and California. The personnel in crimson and cream will not have any slouches, and it’s impossible to say definitively that Florida is worlds faster thanks to the often spurious origins of 40-yard dash times.

Few teams emphasize speed and use it better than Florida does. The Gators must squeeze every ounce of it out in order to beat a very talented Oklahoma team.

Prediction…

For all the talk about how neither team has seen some aspect of the other yet, the most underreported I’ve seen is how Oklahoma has yet to see a power option offense like Florida’s. The Gators already have seen the tall pocket passer-type in Matthew Stafford, but no one in the Big 12 is anywhere close to being as physical as Tim Tebow is.

Baylor’s Robert Griffin is a pure runner, and guys like Texas’ Colt McCoy and Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson do just fine for themselves when they take off and run. The difference with the Florida quarterback? Let’s just say no one would bestow a nickname on any of the excellent signal callers of the Big 12 like “The Hammer” or “Baby Rhino,” the two monikers Tebow picked up in his first year on campus.

Tebow personifies the toughness that Florida brings. For all the talk of UF being the “finesse” team when compared to Alabama before the SEC Championship Game, Florida’s players love to mix it up with the best of them. Oklahoma sure does too, but only team that pushed back at them as hard as Florida will was Texas and we all know how that turned out.

My general feeling is that this game will end with Florida prevailing with a score in the mid-40s to Oklahoma in the upper-30s. I am not going to be so naive as to think that Florida can shut down the Sooner offense entirely. At the same time, Florida’s offense won’t be shut down either.

I fully expect to see a close game throughout with several lead changes. In the end, I can’t pick against this Florida team. It has exceeded my expectations on a weekly basis since October, and I have a feeling one more surprise is in store tonight.

B/R Expert Picks…

Trey Bradley: Oklahoma

Michael Cline: Florida

GeorgiaDawg: Florida

Justin Goar: Florida

Lisa Horne: Florida

Miami Mitch: Florida

Brian Scott: Florida

David Wunderlich: Florida