Luck-Griffin Debate Mirrors Manning-Leaf Debate of a Decade Ago

In just two months the Indianapolis Colts will officially be on the clock in the NFL draft (although fans and writers essentially put the Colts on the block the moment the 2011 regular season ended) and will be faced with another decision that will shape their franchise for the next decade.

It’s widely anticipated that the consensus No. 1 and 2 in the draft will be quarterbacks Andrew Luck of Stanford and Robert Griffin III of Baylor, which once again puts the Colts front and center of a draft debate. Fourteen years ago, the Colts selected Peyton Manning of Tennessee ahead of Ryan Leaf of Washington State in the 1998 NFL Draft, and while no one would question that decision now, back in 1998 that decision was critiqued, criticized, applauded and nitpicked.

Throughout the entire 1997 college season, Manning was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft, a college QB with a high football IQ, an NFL pedigree and capable of  making every throw with precision. He lofted touch passes into the corners of end zones one minute, then zipped arrows into tight coverage over the middle the next. He consistently stood in the pocket, took hits and delivered the ball with accuracy. Then, out of almost nowhere, Manning suddenly had a rival.

Leaf turned a losing performance in the 1998 Rose Bowl into a springboard toward NFL riches, and suddenly experts, fans and draftniks were analyzing every college throw either had made, comparing and contrasting the two guys.

The early Internet discussion boards were on fire with loyal NFL fans all weighing in, and suddenly the question of who would go first in the draft seemed unsure. They had comparable (on paper) seasons, which led some to make the assumption that Leaf, being a year younger than Manning, must have had the bigger upside—or in my opinion the worst thing you can say about a player, POTENTIAL.

PLAYER	ATT	COMP	COMP %	YDS	TD	INT	RATING	HT/WT	YEAR
MANNING	477	287	0.602	3819	36	11	101.1	6'5 - 230	Senior
LEAF	375	210	0.560	3637	33	10	107.4	6'5 - 235	Junior

Fast-forward and we have another debate raging on the blogs and in the discussion forums with a handful of “experts” also weighing in. Luck or Griffin, Griffin or Luck has suddenly become the “it” discussion of the 2012 draft. The decision will shape the identity of their respective franchises for (hopefully positively) the next decade.

Luck is the prototypical NFL-ready QB. He, like Manning, is sure handed, stable, a great game manager capable of making every throw. He doesn’t light up the scoreboard and some have criticized (or critiqued depending on your stance) Luck for “only” being a game manager and not being the dynamic type of athlete some expect from a franchise QB (i.e.: Cam Newton, Michael Vick). 

Griffin III (or RG3, if you will) has put together a fantastic season in his own right, but it was the culmination of that season, the Heisman Trophy, that truly vaulted his name into the debate to be the No. 1 overall pick, eerily similar to Leaf’s sudden rise.

PLAYER	ATT	COMP	COMP %	YDS	TD	INT	RATING	HT/WT	YEAR
LUCK	404	288	0.713	3517	37	10	169.7	6'4 - 235	Senior
GRIFFIN III	402	291	0.724	4293	37	6	189.5	6'2 - 220	Junior

RG3 is the type of dynamic, dual-threat QB that everyone raves about and ESPN puts front and center on plays of the week. This is not to say that RG3 wasn’t a good college player and possibly a good NFL QB. But while Luck is touted as the sure-fire, can’t miss prospect, the words associated with Griffin are potential and upside.

Griffin’s rare blend of athleticism, speed, arm strength and accuracy are unparalleled, but it doesn’t hide the fact that Griffin will need to adapt to running a pro-style offense, while Luck, the most NFL-ready QB to come out of college since Manning, has been running a pro-style set for his entire collegiate career.

Neither player will answer any questions about themselves at the NFL Combine as both have opted to wait until their respective pro days.

The NFL Scouting Combine has become little more than a dog and pony show over the years with player’s stock soaring or falling based on their times in the 40-yard dash, how many times they can bench press 225 lbs. or how far they can throw the ball. Many of the top draft picks pass on performing at the combine all together preferring to have their own “pro day” at their school, on their field, with their teammates.  

Arm strength, which some have questioned in Luck, is obviously important but is also widely overrated. How many times does an NFL QB really air it out in a season? I mean when do you actually see the plan call for the ball to travel  50, 60 yards in the air? Maybe you’ll see that happen five to 10 times a season, usually on the last play before the half, a Hail Mary to end the game, or in the highly unusual situation of a blown coverage assignment.

In the NFL, you make your living throwing the intermediate pass, something that Luck does with aplomb.

At the end of the day, Luck will be and should be the first player taken in the draft. While Indianapolis has other decisions to make involving Manning, finding yourself in position to take Peyton Manning in 1998 and then Andrew Luck in 2012 are the longest of long shots, and the Colts would be fools to pass on another sure thing to land a potentially dominant franchise QB.

RG3 will make an impact in the NFL, but I believe his learning curve is far steeper than that of Luck. I believe Luck is ready and able to step into the starting lineup straight out of college and have the kind of success (and failures) that Manning experienced. But Griffin is the type of QB who will need to spend a season or two carrying a clipboard and learning the nuances of running a pro-style offense.

He already possesses more physical attributes, better accuracy and so far more maturity than Leaf ever did, so with the right situation, coaching and guidance Griffin should find himself paralleling the on-field successes of dual-threat QBs like Michael Vick and Randall Cunningham, while Luck could mentioned with Manning and Unitas as the greatest Colts QBs of all-time.

The similarities of the Manning-Leaf and Luck-Griffin III draft situations are interesting to explore and there are quirky coincidences in the “hows” and “whys” of all four players situations and their arrival at the top of the NFL draft board, but in this writer’s opinion the major differences here is that talent trumps potential and maturity equals success.

No matter which way you slice it, Luck will find success in the NFL almost immediately. In the right situation with the right coaching, RG3 should also find himself a success in the NFL—just not immediately.