Fantasy Football 2012: Roddy White vs. Julio Jones

This is the first in a series of columns that will break down fantasy production and value from teammates who play the same position.

First up are Atlanta Falcons WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones.

Here are some important fantasy stats for the two from 2011 (standard scoring):

                           REC    YDS     TD    TAR          PTS             

Roddy White:     100     1296       8        181          172

Julio Jones:         54       959       8          96          139

White had the superior statistical fantasy season. He was the No. 7 WR in fantasy scoring.

Jones was the No. 19 fantasy scoring WR in 2011, his first season in the NFL.

White was the clear No. 1 in 2011, but at 30 years old, he’s nearing the end of his prime years. Still, he was the go-to receiver, as he had nearly twice as many targets and tied for the league lead with 77 receptions that resulted in first downs. Jones had just 34 such catches.

Jones displayed superiority in a few areas though, such as YPC, YAC and AYAC (Average Yards After Catch). Jones had 417 YAC to White’s 364. And he gained those yards on 46 fewer receptions.

Obviously, that led to a big discrepancy in AYAC.

Jones had an AYAC of 7.44 while White tacked on an average of only 3.64 yards after the catch.

Overall, Jones averaged 17.8 YPC (seventh in the NFL), while White averaged 13 (60th in the NFL).

The situation with White and Jones could turn out a lot like the Isaac Bruce/Torry Holt transition that the St. Louis Rams had in 2000 and 2001, when Holt overtook the No. 1 receiver spot from the older Bruce.

While Jones' skills and production will be on the incline in 2012, it’s unclear whether White will experience a dropoff. His numbers still clearly put him in the top 10 WRs.   

White will be drafted earlier than Jones in most 2012 fantasy drafts, and rightfully so.

In fact, when I ranked the top fantasy WRs for 2012, White was ranked No. 6 and Jones was ranked No. 15.

While selecting White as one of the first WRs would be a solid pick, there will be more value picking up Jones later on instead.

Jones’ career is arcing upwards. Even if the target spread shifts only slightly in his favor, Jones should be able to surpass White in receiving yards.

Matt Ryan is a lucky man right now. He has two great receivers as targets. And in 2011, he did a good job of appeasing the veteran White while developing a chemistry with Jones.

In 2012, production overall will be very close between these two. But the slight edge goes to White.

As far as value, Jones should be able to give you those No. 1 receiver-type numbers for a cheaper price/later round pick.