NCAA Basketball: Bubble Watch Part II 2/13

Ross BentleyJun 7, 2018

As predicted, with another week gone by, the NCAA bubble looks dramatically different.

Who helped and hurt themselves the most this week? What new teams will we see on this week's watch, and what teams have fallen off?

The format remains the same; we will assume that each conference leader will be its conference representative in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course we know that will not be the case, but for now that is how we will manage it.

We will also have our list of at-large candidates who are in good position to make the tournament and are not on the bubble at this point in time.

For the rest, it's all about the bubble. Without further ado, here's this week's bubble watch.

Conference Leaders

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As we mentioned, we will be using each teams current leader as its representative in the tournament. If there is a tie, the team with the better overall record will be the mock automatic bid.

America East—Stony Brook

Atlantic 10—Temple

ACC—Duke

Atlantic Sun—Mercer

Big 12—Missouri

Big East—Syracuse

Big Sky—Weber State

Big South—UNC Asheville

Big 10—Ohio State

Big West—Long Beach State

CAA—Virginia Commonwealth

Conference USA—Southern Miss.

Horizon—Valparaiso

Ivy—Harvard

MAAC—Iona

MAC—Akron

MEAC—Norfolk State

MVC—Wichita State

MWC—UNLV

NEC—LIU Brooklyn

OVC—Murray State

Pac 12—California

Patriot—Bucknell

SEC—Kentucky

Southern—Davidson

Southland—Texas-Arlington

SWAC—Mississippi Valley State

Summit—Oral Roberts

Sun Belt—Middle Tennessee State

WCC—Saint Mary's

WAC—Nevada

Teams in Good Shape

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Here is the list of teams not on top of their conference but without much to worry about if today was Selection Sunday.

North Carolina (ACC)

Florida State (ACC)

Virginia (ACC)

Marquette (Big East)

Georgetown (Big East)

Louisville (Big East)

Notre Dame (Big East)

Michigan State (Big Ten)

Indiana (Big Ten)

Michigan (Big Ten)

Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Baylor (Big 12)

Kansas (Big 12)

Florida (SEC)

Vanderbilt (SEC)

Mississippi State (SEC)

San Diego State (MWC)

Gonzaga (WCC)

Creighton (MVC)

19 make it on this list this week, which should mean there are 18 spots left for bubble teams to snatch up.

Saint Louis 20-5 (8-3)

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RPI: 24

SOS: 72

After knocking off St. Joe's and LaSalle this week, Saint Louis is in mighty good shape.

That RPI keeps going up and up and up and a Top 25 RPI team with a 20-5 overall record is pretty much a shoo-in.

Still, their best wins have come over Washington and Xavier, which is nothing to write home about. That keeps them on the bubble for now.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Surging

TOP NEWS

NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship

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Xavier 16-9 (7-4)

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RPI: 56

SOS: 51

Xavier missed out on another opportunity to get a quality win when they fell to Temple on Saturday.

Things are really looking shaky now for the Musketeers who have fallen to 7-4 in A-10 play.

The good news for them is that they played an extremely difficult non-conference schedule and have wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue and Cincinnati, but only one of them is a sure tournament team right now.

The RPI has now fallen below 50; they are clinging on right now but only barely. Wins over Dayton and UMass are musts.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Fading

Massachusetts 18-7 (7-4)

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RPI: 70

SOS: 138

The Minutemen barely make the cut this week thanks to a loss to St. Joe's on Saturday. The numbers are nothing to turn your head at, and they have no real quality wins other than St. Louis.

UMass may be a feel-good story in the A-10 this season, but unless things change dramatically, they won't be going to the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Atlantic-10 tournament.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: In Deep Trouble

Miami (FL) 15-8 (6-4)

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RPI: 37

SOS: 32

If Miami could have followed up their upset over Duke with a win over Florida State, they would have been in great shape. As it stands now, they're still in a decent spot. But they could really use another quality victory on their resume.

They will get another excellent chance when they face UNC at home this Wednesday.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Steady

North Carolina State 18-7 (7-3)

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RPI: 50

SOS: 56

The Wolfpack have beat up on the lower echelon of the ACC in their last three games, boosting their ACC record to 7-3. However, that doesn't help NC State's lack of quality victories.

They are 1-5 against the RPI Top 50, and their best non-conference win is Texas. Still, with several other bubble teams falling out of place, NC State slides into the field this week but only barely.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: On The Upswing

Iowa State 18-7 (8-4)

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RPI: 44

SOS: 64

If the Cyclones won both of their games this week, they likely would have moved into the "in good shape" part of my bubble watch.

However, they stumbled in a road loss against Oklahoma State. This drops them back into the bubble.

Still, back-to-back wins over Kansas and Kansas State from a week ago aren't going anywhere, plus they followed up the Oklahoma State loss with a solid victory over Texas A&M.

Win at Baylor tomorrow and they'll officially be in good shape.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: In Decent Shape

Kansas State 17-7 (6-6)

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RPI: 55

SOS: 77

On the surface, Kansas State feels like a tournament team—they have for the majority of this season.

However, their resume may suggest something much different. K-State has a terrible non-conference RPI (241) and is really only relying on an upset win over Missouri to keep them on the right side of the bubble.

A loss to Texas really hurt the Wildcats as they now fall back to .500 in the Big-12. The Missouri win keeps them in for now, but they now face the hardest three-game stretch any team will face all season.

Home vs. Kansas, @ Baylor, @ Missouri. One win, if not two, is essential for Frank Martin's team.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Fading

Texas 16-9 (6-6)

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RPI: 49

SOS: 16

Suddenly, Texas looks to be in a pretty good position to get an at-large bid.

The Longhorns have won three in a row including a huge win over Kansas State. They have some non-conference wins of note, and those numbers keep getting better and better.

If Kansas State is in right now—so is Texas—especially if they can sweep the Oklahoma teams this week.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Surging

Cincinnati 17-8 (7-5)

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RPI: 92

SOS: 124

Cincy missed out on a huge chance when they lost to Marquette on Saturday; now they continue to be on the decline in the Big-East.

Mick Cronin can protest all he wants, but with an RPI in the 90s, the non-conference schedule is not excusable for a team who wants to be in the NCAA Tournament.

Last week, I put them in. Since the Marquette loss really won't hurt them all too much I'll keep them for now, but there is literally zero margin for error from here on out.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: On The Fringe

West Virginia 16-10 (6-7)

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RPI: 43

SOS: 5

The Mountaineers appeared to be in good shape on the watch last week with a Top 25 RPI and a plus .500 record in the Big-East.

After two consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Louisville, the Mountaineers are in a much more precarious position.

West Virginia has now lost five out of their last six games, only an overtime win over Providence is keeping their heads above water.

While other teams in the conference seem to be moving up, West Virginia is going in the absolute wrong direction. For now, that gaudy SOS number keeps them in it, but a loss against Pittsburgh this week would change that.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: In Trouble

Connecticut 15-9 (5-7)

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RPI: 21

SOS: 1

The only Big-East bubble team that's colder than West Virginia is the defending champion UConn Huskies.

Connecticut has lost six out of their last seven to fall to a measly 5-7 in conference play. The good news is that none of their losses are awful (although Rutgers and Tennessee are close). And somehow the computer has kept them nearly in the Top 20.

The numbers are really all UConn has to hold onto right now, but fortunately for them it is just good enough to keep them in the dance right now.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Fading Fast

Seton Hall 17-8 (6-7)

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RPI: 31

SOS: 19

The Pirates did what they had to do this week, picking up wins over Rutgers and Pittsburgh to put them right back in the bubble mix.

Before hand, Seton Hall had lost six in a row and were in danger of falling completely off the bubble. Now, they are right in it with West Virginia and Connecticut.

The Pirates have great computer numbers and some decent wins over VCU and St. Joe's in the non-conference, as well as wins over both of their fellow Big-East bubble teams UConn and West Virginia.

The numbers can't be ignored right now, slide into the tournament in this week's watch.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: On The Fringe

South Florida 15-10 (8-4)

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RPI: 61

SOS: 37

Easily the biggest surprise in the Big-East this season has been the Bulls of South Florida who sport a nifty 8-4 conference record.

Although they struggled immensely in the non-conference portion of their schedule, their Big-East mark earns them a look.

At first glance, those computer numbers aren't at all bad. However, the best non-conference win is Cleveland State which is not going to get it done come Selection Sunday. Despite the record, the Bulls don't have many particularly impressive wins in conference either. Basically, South Florida has beaten the teams they should beat, which is nice but doesn't make a big impact on the bubble.

Still, Stan Heath has put this team in position to have a shot at it, which is a huge victory itself.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: On The Rise

Illinois 16-9 (5-7)

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RPI: 39

SOS: 17

The Fighting Illini have picked a bad time to lose six out of seven games, including losses to fellow bubble teams Minnesota and Northwestern.

The only real good news right now for Illinois is that the one win in that seven game stretch was an impressive win at home over Michigan State. They also have wins over Gonzaga and the big one, Ohio State.

Still, they are 5-7 in the league. They absolutely must win against Purdue and Nebraska this week to have any real chance.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Fading

Purdue 16-9 (6-6)

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RPI: 59

SOS: 36

Purdue came within three points of getting their signature win they so desperately need against Ohio State on Tuesday.

That win would have cemented the Boiler Makers as "in." Instead, they are still squarely on the bubble.

Purdue responded well with a must win over Northwestern on Sunday, and they still have good wins over Temple, Miami and Illinois to keep them in for now.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Steady

Minnesota 17-8 (5-7)

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RPI: 57

SOS: 59

Like I mentioned in last week's watch, Minnesota may very well be one of the unluckiest teams in the country this season. Along with losing their best player Trevor Mbakwe, every time they think they are picking up a marquee win, that team begins to fade, meaning the wins do very little for the Golden Gophers resume.

They came close to knocking off Wisconsin this week but fell in overtime—dropping them to just 5-7 in the league.

They really don't have any marquee wins, and the computer numbers are nothing to write home about. They simply must beat Ohio State on Tuesday to stay relevant in the bubble picture.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: In Deep Trouble

Northwestern 15-9 (5-7)

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RPI: 35

SOS: 17

If Illinois and Minnesota deserve looks at 5-7 in Big-Ten play, so does Northwestern who makes their debut on the B/R bubble watch this week.

Northwestern, looking to earn their first ever NCAA Tournament bid, still has a long way to go. Wins over Seton Hall, Illinois and Michigan State are the best they can muster, but their computer numbers are helping them out.

Northwestern would have got a much more serious look if they knocked off Purdue on Saturday, but as it stands: they are out but in the mix.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: On The Rise

George Mason 21-6 (13-2)

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RPI: 100

SOS: 252

GMU took care of business this week against Hofstra and UNC Wilmington to move to 13-2 in the CAA. The Patriots now see their RPI creep into the Top 100.

Still, the wins simply aren't there yet for George Mason. The best non-conference win is likely Bucknell, and they lost to Drexel in the conference.

George Mason, Drexel and VCU are currently in a three-way tie for the lead in the conference, so Mason can take their spot as the conference leader if they can knock off the Rams tomorrow night.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: Steady

Drexel 21-5 (13-2)

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RPI: 81

SOS: 243

Make it 13 wins in a row now for the Dragons who haven't lost since the second day of 2012.

Drexel was my last team in last week, but unfortunately for them they get dropped out this week due to the rise of a few other teams. Still, they are on the rise. If they can win out, which would include a bracket busting win over Cleveland State, they should be in good shape.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: On The Rise

Memphis 18-7 (8-2)

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RPI: 19

SOS: 11

Those numbers keep getting better for the Tigers who won two more games this week to move to 8-2 in Conference-USA.

With a Top 20 RPI and an almost Top 10 SOS, Memphis is in excellent position right now. They looked fairly average in non-conference games but played an excellent schedule and won enough games to put them in a good position.

If Memphis beats Tulane and UTEP this week, they will move into the "in good shape" category.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: In Decent Shape

Colorado State 15-8 (4-4)

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RPI: 32

SOS: 31

Colorado State really hurt themselves with a loss to TCU this week, dropping them to just 4-4 in MWC play.

The Rams still somehow have those great computer numbers, but even they are falling as their RPI has now gone from in the teens a couple weeks ago to now in the thirties.

Despite their quality numbers, CSU doesn't have a lot of wins, and it will be hard putting them in at 4-4 in the conference.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: On The Fringe

Wyoming 18-6 (4-4)

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RPI: 65

SOS: 117

The Pokes really could have made a serious impact if they followed their upset over UNLV with a victory over New Mexico, but they fell short.

Like Colorado State before them, it would be difficult to justify getting in with a .500 record in the Mountain West. Wyoming has a win over Colorado and the aforementioned win over the Runnin' Rebels, but that is not nearly enough with a SOS that is over 100.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: In Trouble

New Mexico 20-4 (6-2)

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RPI: 33

SOS: 100

After a sloppy win over Wyoming, New Mexico now finds themselves in a three-way tie for first place in the Mountain West conference.

The Lobos are in good shape with a 20-4 overall record, although their non-conference schedule leaves something to be desired.

Still, if they can win just one of their next two games against San Diego State and UNLV, the Lobos will be in great shape.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: In Decent Shape

Washington 17-8 (10-3)

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RPI: 61

SOS: 66

The Huskies make their debut on this list after falling out of first place to Cal in the Pac-12.

Washington simply has no meat on their non-conference resume. They missed out on opportunities against Marquette and Duke and also lost to St. Louis and South Dakota State. In the Pac-12, the Huskies have been better and have won five out of six, with a mysterious blowout loss to Oregon.

Is a 10-3 record in a power conference enough to push them through? Maybe, but for now I'm saying no.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: Steady

Oregon 18-7 (9-4)

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RPI: 66

SOS: 98

If Oregon had not been on the wrong side of a very questionable call against Colorado on February 4th, they would be winners of four straight and tied for the conference lead.

Even with the loss to the Buffaloes though, Oregon is still in a better position than most Pac-12 teams especially after beating down Washington.

The computer numbers are improving but still aren't quite good enough. Oregon, like most Pac-12 teams, have little to speak of in non-conference play, and there is nothing they can do to change that.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: On The Rise

Colorado 17-8 (9-4)

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RPI: 74

SOS: 84

Colorado managed a split in their trip to Arizona last week, losing to Arizona but beating Arizona State.

They are right in the thick of the Pac-12 race, but their best chance may very well be winning the Pac-12 tournament because they don't have many non-conference accomplishments to push them through.

As is stands, the best win is Georgia.

It is hard to separate the at-large candidates in the Pac-12 right now, and while Colorado is certainly in the mix, nothing screams at-large team any more than the other teams who have already been left out.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: Steady

Arizona 18-8 (9-4)

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RPI: 71

SOS: 85

Don't ask me how Arizona's computer numbers got considerably worse this week despite beating Colorado and Utah.

Nevertheless, I still like the Wildcats more than most Pac-12 teams for one reason. They challenged themselves.

That is something the committee is going to take note of if they are looking at which Pac-12 teams to put into the tournament.

The Wildcats don't have a ton of wins, but the win over Valparaiso is looking better, and the wins over Clemson and St. John's are at least something.

They are on the rise in the Pac-12 and are now tied for third—just a game out of the top. Like I said last week, I don't see the Pac-12 as a one-bid league. For now, Arizona gets the nod.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: Surging

Arkansas 17-8 (5-5)

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RPI: 67

SOS: 78

I said last week that Arkansas should win their next three games before facing off with Florida on the 18th. Unfortunately, they didn't win their next three games (and got blown out by Georgia).

This team cannot win on the road. They haven't won one measly road game this season—every win has come at home.

The committee will look at their road record and that is not going to get it done, especially with their suspect computer numbers.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: Fading

Alabama 16-8 (5-5)

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RPI: 31

SOS: 31

Just like Arkansas before them, Alabama would be in a pretty good position if they had just taken care of business against a lesser SEC opponent last week.

The Crimson Tide lost to LSU on Saturday to drop them back down to 5-5 in the league. Unlike the Razorbacks though, Alabama has some wiggle room.

They have wins over VCU, Purdue and Wichita State—three tournament teams right now. That is more than almost any other bubble team can claim in the non-conference.

Those numbers aren't half bad either. If they can't knock off Florida, wins over Tennessee and Arkansas are highly advisable.

In Right Now? Yes

Bottom Line: In Decent Shape

South Dakota State 20-7 (12-3)

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RPI: 63

SOS: 162

I told a colleague of mine that I would include the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in this week's edition so here they are.

Unfortunately for them, there at-large hopes took a huge hit this week when they fell to South Dakota.

The Washington win is nice, but there is simply no way the committee will take a team with three losses in the summit league (four assuming they fall in the conference tournament).

Their best bet—knock off Oral Roberts in the conference championship.

In Right Now? No

Bottom Line: In Deep Trouble