Predicting the Top 10 Defenses in College Football for 2012

The axiom "offense sells tickets but defense wins championships" is attributed to Bear Bryant, but does it still hold true in today's world of spread, no-huddle, high-scoring offenses?

If last year's BCS National Championship Game is any indication, yes it does.

Last year's National Championship featured the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation versus the No. 2 scoring defense.

In fact, during the BCS era, only one national champion hasn't been a top-10 scoring defense—Auburn in 2010.

Meanwhile, only seven of the 14 BCS National Champs have been top-10 scoring offenses.

In short, odds are that if this article comes to fruition, one of the teams in this article will be the National Champion.

With that said, this is not which defenses I think will be the best in 2012, but which teams will populate the top-10 scoring defenses. Generally speaking, I am of the opinion that the fourth-best defense in the SEC will be better than the top Sun Belt Conference D, though that will not be reflected in the scoring defense leaderboard.

Of course, most of the defenses that wind up in the top 10 also happen to be the best Ds.

I will also note that a "returning starter," for my purposes, started at least four games last season. I realize there are plenty of experienced players that haven't started a game, but one has to draw the line somewhere.

5 That Almost Made It

Florida Gators

Southern Cal Trojans

Michigan State Spartans

Illinois Illini

Texas Longhorns

Utah Utes

2011 Scoring Defense: 20.2 PPG (19th)

2011 Total Defense: 352.1 YPG (40th)

2011 Rushing Defense: 3.29 YPC (20th)

2011 Passing Defense: 116.53 opposing passer efficiency rating (24th)

2011 Sacks: 29 (t-33rd)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 33 (t-fourth) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 38.65 percent (53rd)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 75.68 (22nd)

Returning Starters: Seven

Key Returning Starters: Star Lotulelei DT, Trevor Reilly SLB, Brian Blechen SS

Overview

The Utes' impressive 2011 defense might have been as much a product of a soft schedule—no Oregon or Stanford—as great a D.

On the other hand, it did perform well in shutting down BYU—10 points—and holding USC to 23 points in a loss.

Either way, it will face the same schedule in 2012, though it will get Southern Cal and Brigham Young at home.

The defensive line and secondary remain largely intact, but the Utes will have to regroup at linebacker, where the team's top two tacklers have graduated.

Central Florida Golden Knights

2011 Scoring Defense: 18.3 PPG (eighth)

2011 Total Defense: 303.3 YPG (ninth)

2011 Rushing Defense: 3.76 YPC (44th)

2011 Passing Defense: 110.56 opposing passer efficiency rating (eighth)

2011 Sacks: 17 (95th)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 15 (t-105th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 31.55 percent (eighth)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 78.79 (43rd)

Returning Starters: 10

Key Returning Starters: Troy Davis DE, Kemal Ishmael FS, Clayton Geathers SS

Overview

Last year's defense was impressive, but it failed to show up in road games.

Despite pitching two shutouts and four games in which it didn't let up a touchdown—including a 30-3 beatdown of Boston College and a 16-6 win over bowl-eligible Marshall—the Golden Knight D fell flat in road games, going 0-6 and allowing 28.8 PPG away from Orlando.

Expect experience and an easier conference road slate to lead to more consistency and a better overall defense in 2012.

LSU Tigers

2011 Scoring Defense: 11.3 PPG (second)

2011 Total Defense: 261.5 YPG (second)

2011 Rushing Defense: 2.74 YPC (sixth)

2011 Passing Defense: 95.58 opposing passer efficiency rating (third)

2011 Sacks: 38 (12th)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 30 (t-16th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 33.97 percent (19th)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 88.46 (106th)

Returning Starters: Five plus the punter

Key Returning Starters: Sam Montgomery DE, Barkevious Mingo DE, Tyrann Mathieu CB

Overview

What could have been one of the greatest defenses in the last 10 years of college football left for the NFL when Morris Claiborne opted to turn pro.

However, there is still plenty left in the tank in Baton Rouge.

First, defensive line will be a decided strength for the Tigers. They have two legitimate All-American candidates in Montgomery and Mingo, and a strong rotation behind them.

Mathieu will lock down one side of the field, and while quarterbacks will likely pick on the other cornerback, All-SEC safety Eric Reed will shade over to help.

Linebackers will be an issue, as LSU graduates two, and out of the three levels of defense, linebackers were the least impressive in 2011.

Louisville Cardinals

2011 Scoring Defense: 20.1 PPG (17th)

2011 Total Defense: 327.9 YPG (23rd)

2011 Rushing Defense: 3.00 YPC (ninth)

2011 Passing Defense: 129.69 opposing passer efficiency rating (60th)

2011 Sacks: 33 (t-20th)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 21 (t-64th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 38.14 percent (49th)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 80.56 (54th)

Returning Starters: Nine

Key Returning Starters: Marcus Smith DE, Adrian Bushell CB, Hakeem Smith SS

Overview

In 2011, Louisville's defense was an example of the sum surpassing the parts.

Despite a lackluster red zone, third down and pass D, despite not forcing turnovers and despite having to carry the 98th-ranked scoring offense in the country, the Louisville D got the job done.

This season, the individual parts should be more impressive, which will lead to an even more impressive sum.

With three of the front four returning, the rush defense will be as strong as it was in 2011.

Meanwhile, the pass defense will take a notable step up with every starter in the secondary returning, including all-conference honorees Bushell and Smith.

The Cardinals have to replace leading tackler Dexter Heyman, but the experience of the front four and the other two linebackers will help with that.

Florida International Golden Panthers

2011 Scoring Defense: 19.5 PPG (14th)

2011 Total Defense: 344.7 YPG (31st)

2011 Rushing Defense: 3.35 YPC (22nd)

2011 Passing Defense: 111.96 opposing passer efficiency rating (13th)

2011 Sacks: 34 (t-18th)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 20 (t-77th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 36.23 percent (35th)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 76.47 (28th)

Returning Starters: 11 plus the punter

Key Returning Starters: Winston Fraser MLB, Jordan Hunt SLB, Justin Halley S

Overview

The Golden Panthers return all but three of their top 20 tacklers, all but one player that recorded a sack and every player that snagged an interception.

In short, FIU will be one of the best, as well as deepest, non-AQ defenses in the country next season.

Ohio State Buckeyes

2011 Scoring Defense: 21.00 PPG (27th)

2011 Total Defense: 323.5 YPG (19th)

2011 Rushing Defense: 3.84 YPC (48th)

2011 Passing Defense: 126.75 opposing passer efficiency rating (53rd)

2011 Sacks: 23 (t-70th)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 20 (t-77th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 40.22 percent (65th)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 82.35 percent (t-69th)

Returning Starters: 10 plus the punter

Key Returning Starters: John Simon DE/DT, Travis Howard CB, C.J. Barnett S

Overview

Urban Meyer is known for his offense, but his defensive squads have always been top-notch.

His Florida defenses were top-10 units three out of his six years. They were top-20 units four out of the six years.

Last year was the first time the Bucks haven't been a top-10 scoring defense since 2004. It was also the first time they haven't been a top-20 scoring defense since 1999.

Expect it to return to form this season.

Alabama Crimson Tide

2011 Scoring Defense: 8.2 PPG (first)

2011 Total Defense: 183.6 YPG (first)

2011 Rushing Defense: 2.43 YPC (second)

2011 Passing Defense: 83.69 opposing passer efficiency rating (first)

2011 Sacks: 30 (t-29th)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 20 (t-77th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 24.46 percent (first)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 58.82 (first)

Returning Starters: Five plus the punter

Key Returning Starters: Nico Johnson WLB, C.J. Mosley LB, Robert Lester SS

Overview

2012's Bama defense won't be as good as 2011's.

Not many are. For comparison's sake, one has to go back to the 2001 Miami (FL) defense to find a FBS unit that allowed its opponents fewer than 10 PPG. And that team, and specifically that defense, were pretty good.

Next season, the Tide project to have one of the toughest run defenses in the country, despite losing four of its front seven.

However, the versatility of departed linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw had a good deal to do with the success of Bama's blitz packages.

That will be complicated by the loss of cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and free safety Mark Barron.

In 2012, if teams are to score on the Tide, it will be through the air.

Virginia Tech Hokies

2011 Scoring Defense: 17.6 PPG (seventh)

2011 Total Defense: 304.6 YPG (10th)

2011 Rushing Defense: 3.22 YPC (15th)

2011 Passing Defense: 112.02 opposing passer efficiency rating (14th)

2011 Sacks: 41 (t-sixth)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 23 (t-49th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 32.29 percent (11th)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 70 percent (fifth)

Returning Starters: Nine plus the punter

Key Returning Starters: James Gayle DE, Bruce Taylor ILB, Kyle Fuller CB 

Overview

Virginia Tech has had a top-10 scoring defense every season but one—2010—since 2004. Expect the Hokies to continue that tradition this season.

Frank Beamer's squad returns every defensive linemen that played a snap in 2011, every player that recorded a sack and nine of the top 11 tacklers.

The only area that might be a soft spot is the secondary, which lost Jayron Hosley to the NFL, as well as starting rover Eddie Whitley and reserve cornerback Cris Hill to graduation.

The defense will look even better than it is thanks to a soft out-of-conference schedule.

Georgia Bulldogs

2011 Scoring Defense: 20.6 PPG (23rd)

2011 Total Defense: 277.2 YPG (fifth)

2011 Rushing Defense: 3.22 YPC (15th)

2011 Passing Defense: 98.74 opposing passer efficiency rating (fourth)

2011 Sacks: 35 (15th)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 32 (t-7th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 28.93 percent (third)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 90.63 percent (116th)

Returning Starters: Nine

Key Returning Starters: Jarvis Jones OLB, Michael Gilliard ILB, Bacarri Rambo CB

Overview

The Dawgs return all but one player that recorded a sack in 2011, all but one player that recorded an interception and 12 of their top 14 tacklers.

UGA's defense was better than it seemed, as the discrepancy between scoring defense and total defense attests.

The problem was with the red zone defense, which was porous. This is a problem that will have to be fixed; however, between the 20's, Georgia was and looks to be all but impenetrable.

Florida State Seminoles

2011 Scoring Defense: 15.1 PPG (fourth)

2011 Total Defense: 275.0 YPG (fourth)

2011 Rushing Defense: 2.35 YPC (first)

2011 Passing Defense: 116.66 opposing passer efficiency rating (25th)

2011 Sacks: 41 (t-sixth)

2011 Turnovers Forced: 23 (t-49th) 

2011 Third Down Defense: 34.85 percent (23rd)

2011 Red Zone Defense: 77.14 percent (32nd)

Returning Starters: Nine

Key Returning Starters: Brandon Jenkins DE, Bjoern Werner DE, Lamarcus Joyner FS 

Overview

The Noles might have the most formidable front four in the country.

Senior Brandon Jenkins is one of the two best returning ends in the country, and his counterpart, junior Bjoern Werner, isn't far behind him. Meanwhile, both defensive tackles are dependable returning starters, and FSU has a solid eight-man rotation.

Overall, this squad will have a good shot of repeating as the stingiest run defense in the country.

However, the Seminoles will have to shore up the pass defense. This won't be easy with the graduation of strong safety Terrance Parks, weak-side linebacker Nigel Bradham and reserve cornerback Mike Harris.

Nevertheless, on paper, FSU looks to have the best defense in college football next season.