UFC on Fuel TV 2: Alexander Gustafsson vs Rogerio Nogueira Breakdown

UFC on Fuel TV 2 marks the UFC's first trip to Sweden and it takes place on April 14th. The main event features native son and fast rising light heavyweight champion Alexander Gustafsson against seasoned veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

While this event is more than a month away it is never too early to take a look at how these two stack up in the cage in what should be an exciting main event for the UFC's second offering on Fuel TV.

Will Gustafsson keep his rise alive? Or will Rogerio Nogueira spoil Gustafsson's homecoming?

Here's how they stack up.

Technical Striking

Both Nogueira and Gustafsson have shown that they are very proficient strikers who like to stand with their opponents.

Accordingly, striking should play a huge role in this fight.

Gustafsson began training in boxing at a young age and his striking skills reflect that in terms of technique. Gustafsson will look to utilize his reach to keep Nogueira on the outside while setting up his power shots.

Nogueira also has a boxing background, and a more decorated history in the sport. A bronze medalist in the Pan-Am games in 2007, Nogueira's greatest strength in the octagon is his technical boxing ability.

While Gustafsson has improved his striking every time he goes out, Nogueira's experience and background should make him the more technical striker of the two.

Advantage: Nogueira

Power

Nogueira and Gustafsson have both displayed power in their careers.

Gustafsson came into the UFC with six of his eight victories coming by way of (T)KO, and has continued the trend since he has joined the organization while adding some submission victories to his tally. He currently owns back to back knockout victories over Matt Hamill and Vladimir Matyushenko where he showed his power.

Nogueira has flashed his own brand of knockout power throughout his career and six of his twenty career victories are by way of (T)KO, including his recent victory over Tito Ortiz.

Gustafsson should make up for the deficit in technical striking by overwhelming Nogueira with his power and varied attack.

Advantage: Gustafsson

Size and Athleticism

Much of Gustafsson's rise can be attributed to having the tall, lanky build that seems to have become a larger advantage with the rise of fellow young fighters Jon Jones and Phil Davis.

Gustafsson stands at 6'5", and with a reach of 76.5", he's able to remain in his range while opponents need to close the distance in order to strike effectively. Gustafsson has had the reach advantage in all but two of his fights and he elected to take striker Cyrille Diabate to the ground to ensure the win.

Nogueira is a bigger light heavyweight and with a reach of 75" he isn't at too much of a disadvantage, although he will still need to close the distance at the risk of being picked apart on the outside by Gustafsson.

Gustafsson has also shown that he is very athletic for his frame and capable of using his quickness to control the fight.

Advantage: Gustafsson

Grappling

It is hard to envision this fight turning into a grapple-heavy affair but in the event that someone gets a knockdown, this fight could wind up on the mat.

Gustafsson is the more likely of the two to attempt a takedown but Nogueira's tough takedown defense is probably enough to keep the fight standing.

Neither fighter is primarily a ground fighter, but Gustafsson has successfully taken opponents down when he has wished to. He could take down a tired Nogueira in the later rounds if he is unable to gain much traction in the stand up department, a la Phil Davis in his fight with Nogueira.

Noguiera does train with his twin brother who is known for his Jiu-Jitsu prowess but Little Nog has not employed those techniques with the success as his twin.

Look for Gustafsson to be able to do some damage in top control, but for Nogueira to use his high quality Jiu-Jistu back to his feet rather quickly.

Advantage: Nogueira

Submissions

As mentioned previously, these are two fighters that traditionally like to stand and exchange blows. However, a knock down or slip could find these two scrambling around on the mat and there's always a chance for a submission.

Nogueira does possess good Jiu Jitsu. Training with Rodrigo Nogueira and Anderson Silva at Blackhouse means there is no questioning his background. That being said, Nogueira hasn't won by submission since 2009 when he defeated Dion Staring by triangle choke.

Gustafsson, on the other hand, may not have the pedigree of Nogueira but he has flashed submission skills with recent submission victories over James Te-Huna and Cyrille Diabate. Nogueira must be cautious of getting choked out when rolling with Gustafsson.

Advantage: Gustafsson

Prediction

While Rogerio Nogueira is a solid fighter and good competition for the up-and-coming Swede, Gustafsson simply has too much going for him and the Swedish crowd will surely provide a boost.

Nogueira's chin is granite and he has only been knocked out once in his career so it will be interesting to see if Gustafsson is able to finish the fight. Only one fight on his record has gone to decision.

This fight will come down to how well Noguiera is able to close the distance without suffering damage from Gustafsson.

Look for Gustafsson to do damage early and often but struggle to put the always-tough Nogueira away. A late fight submission is not out of the question if Gustafsson is able to put him on the canvas.

Gustafsson by third round submission (rear naked choke)