New York Mets: Realistic Expectations for Each Starter on Offense

As we get closer to the start of the 2012 MLB season, hopes don't seem to be running too high for the New York Mets. Call me the eternal optimist, but I'm holding out hope for them.

It's the same story with the Mets—they just need people to stay healthy. Freak and constant injuries really hampered their season last year. The thing people tend to overlook, however, is how badly the bullpen affected the season.

The Mets were tied for fifth worst in the NL with 24 blown saves. What this means is that the lineup and rotation, while not being amazing, were setting the Mets up with chances to win. If the bullpen could've converted a few more of those saves, who knows what could have happened?

Anyway, these predictions are for each individual Mets player. They aren't what I think each player could accomplish (i.e. reaching their ceiling); they're what I believe to be reasonable numbers under the assumption that the player stays healthy and plays a full season.

People seem to be overlooking the Mets lineup. Obviously, losing Reyes is a huge blow to the lineup and there is now a big hole at the top, but the Mets' projected No. 2-6 really isn't anything to scoff at, especially if the younger guys keep their production at the same level.

I'm doing the slides by position, so for the record, this is my projected lineup...

1. Andres Torres

2. Daniel Murphy

3. David Wright

4. Ike Davis

5. Jason Bay

6. Lucas Duda

7. Josh Thole

8. Ruben Tejada

C: Josh Thole

Josh Thole really experienced the highs and lows of only his second full season in the major leagues last year. In June and August, he batted .327 and .300, respectively. However, in April and May, he hit .237 and .212.

Hopefully, what that says for Mets fans is that after a very slow start, the way he finished the year is what we can start to expect from Thole. I'm not saying expect him to go out there and put up a batting average above .300, but I don't think one around .290 is out of the question. Thole looked more confident at the plate towards the end of last year and has shown great ability to hit the ball where it is pitched and to go the other way, especially late in games.

Reasonable Projection: .286 AVG, .350 OBP, 5 HRs, 45 RBI

1B: Ike Davis

Following a pretty damn good rookie campaign, there were high hopes for Davis in 2011 and before an unfortunate freak injury in May, Davis looked like he was well on his way to a breakout season.

Davis got out of the gates strong, hitting .337 with five home runs and 20 RBI in April, with an OPS over 1.000. Davis was well on his way to a 30-homer season before a collision cut his year very short. Once again, hopes are high for Davis heading into 2012 and there is really no reason for his power to not continue to develop.

Some people believe that Davis' swing is a little long, but it hasn't really hampered him yet. I think that Davis will be the Mets' biggest power bat in 2012, and will get that 30-home run season. Ike will also benefit from the drawn-in fences of Citi Field.

Reasonable Projection: .291 AVG, .376 OBP, 32 HRs, 101 RBI

2B: Daniel Murphy

Daniel Murphy was another Met experiencing a huge year before injuries ended it too soon. Murphy was hitting .320 before getting hurt in August. Daniel isn't a big home run threat but I don't think that double digits are out of the question. Murphy also doesn't walk too often, so his OBP will be driven mostly by his batting average.

I don't expect Murph to maintain that .320 average, but I could definitely see him keeping it over .300 again. I see Murphy sitting in the No. 2 spot in the order for most, if not all, of the year, so a high average and good gap power should propel him to another very productive season.

One reason you should never count out good ole' Murph is his heart. Murphy is as competitive and driven of a person as you will find in MLB and that's why I believe he won't stop until he repeats last year's numbers.

Reasonable Projection: .305 AVG, .351 OBP, 9 HRs, 59 RBI

SS: Ruben Tejada

Tejada is going to start at shortstop more for his glove than his bat, but there is some potential. Tejada came on strong at the end of the season, batting .303, with a .368 OBP after the All-Star break. He does a nice job getting on base at the bottom of the order, which is big in the NL, because at the very least, it allows you to clear the pitcher's spot.

Although there has been talk about having Tejada lead off, I think the Mets are best suited to leave him at the No. 8 spot in the order. Tejada is still very young, at only 22 years of age, and might not yet be able to deal with the pressure of the leadoff spot, especially right after a guy by the name of Jose Reyes was manning it.

Something that should not be overlooked with Tejada, however, is that last year in 151 ABs with runners on, Tejada hit .305. There won't be any power, but Ruben definitely has the potential to hit for average. One thing that he needs to focus on working on this year is his baserunning. If he wants to have any shot at the leadoff spot in the future, he needs to steal more bases.

Reasonable Projection: .290 AVG, .352 OBP, 1 HR, 40 RBI, 12 SBs

3B: David Wright

We now arrive at the Met who will probably be most affected by the drawn-in Citi Field fences. Wright has tremendous gap power, but old Citi Field was where balls in the gap went to die. Wright is still arguably in his prime at only 29 years of age, and I see no reason why he couldn't return to his past numbers.

Definitely hitting in the No. 3 spot this year, Wright will have good protection behind him with Ike Davis hitting cleanup. People also tend to forget that Wright was battling numerous injuries last season. Everything points towards David getting back to his old self and having a monster year.

Reasonable Projections: .298 AVG, .392 OBP, 28 HRs, 95 RBI, 17 SBs

LF: Jason Bay

Again, call me the eternal optimist, but I truly believe that Jason Bay will have a better year than people expect in 2012. I have the benefit of an eidetic memory, so I can tell you that Bay hit a lot of balls either off the fence in LF or to the warning track, all of which would now become home runs.

People like to point out that Bay also only had six home runs on the road last season, but I believe that's because he was trying to overcompensate for not being able to hit them at Citi Field. I'm not saying by any means that Bay will put up numbers like he used to, but I think that 20 to 25 homers is a distinct possibility.

Along with Wright, I believe Bay is most affected by the closer walls.

Reasonable Projections: .258 AVG, .345 OBP, 22 HRs, 81 RBI, 10 SBs

CF: Andres Torres

Acquired in the traded involving Angel Pagan and Ramon Ramirez, Torres is expected to fill the center field spot for now. However, I don't see him ending the season there. Rumor is the Mets are still looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder, and if they end up signing Kosuke Fukudome, he might end up getting the nod over Torres.

Also, I expect to see Kirk Nieuwenhuis in center before the season is over.

Torres doesn't have the highest ceiling, with his highest single-season batting average being .270 and also being 34 years old. For now though, it looks like Torres will open the season batting leadoff for the Mets. I'm still going to do my projections based on a full season of play, even though I don't believe he will reach that.

Reasonable Projections: .251 AVG, .327 OBP, 8 HRs, 41 RBI, 22 SBs

RF: Lucas Duda

Last, but certainly not least, Lucas Duda. I am very excited about the potential that Duda has for this year.

There was a lot of talk about Duda's tremendously slow start to the 2011 season, mostly because players thought they knew what the problem was. Duda was so humble, it was almost to a fault. Mets players believed he wanted to be so humble that he almost didn't have confidence in himself to get the job done. And at the end of the year, that certainly seemed like it was the problem, because once Duda started hitting, he never stopped.

In June through September, Duda hit .283, .300, .319 and .311, respectively. Starting to see why I'm so excited about Duda? His power also started coming around towards the end of the season, with Lucas hitting eight homers in the last two months of the season.

With all that confidence and the damn good hitters that Duda has in front of him to drive in, I think everything points towards Duda continuing to develop and having a very successful season.

Reasonable Projections: .293 AVG, .357 OBP, 21 HRs, 81 RBI