UNC Basketball: Guard Play Must Be Stable for Tar Heels to Hold off Duke

If North Carolina is going to stay on track in the ACC and defend their home court against Duke, they will need to at least limit the advantage that will come from Duke's backcourt. 

On paper, the advantage in this game is with North Carolina—they are at home, have an overwhelming advantage inside and are just the overall better team. 

But if North Carolina isn't careful, Austin Rivers and Seth Curry will run circles around Reggie Bullock and Kendall Marshall. That is where an upset will take place.

Fortunately, the Tar Heels can easily negate the backcourt advantage if they follow a few simple plans.

Offense: Feed the Big Men

Duke doesn't have the big men to match Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and John Henson. If these three giants get the ball in the paint, Duke will not stay competitive. 

If these three bigs go for about 55 combined points, then the Tar Heels won't need anything more than 15 from their back court. That would put them at roughly 70 points from the starting lineup. That would likely be enough to win the game, but if not, their bench wouldn't need a lot to put it away. 

The advantage for North Carolina is that their strengths are in high-percentage shots. If they take advantage of that, Duke won't compete. 

Defense: Guard the Three-Point Line

It doesn't really matter how this gets done. Personally, I would bring a third or even fourth defender out high, letting Zeller man the paint. Duke doesn't have the size to take advantage of the lack of bodies down below. 

But whatever strategy they go with, it has to limit the bombs. Nothing will allow Duke to stay in this game like a hot three-point game. North Carolina can't let that happen. If they do, the Tar Heels will be looking at a loss at home against a team that's not as good. 

Fortunately, the advantages all lie with North Carolina. Duke will make some three-pointers—there is no way around that—they just won't make enough to overcome the deficiency in the paint. 

The guards will do well enough and the frontcourt will take the game over, keeping the Blue Devils out of reach. 

Prediction: North Carolina 79, Duke 69

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