Statistics Say That the Patriots Will Win the Super Bowl, Psychology, the Giants

Statistically, the New York Giants don't belong on the same post season field as the Boston Patriots. The problem is that the Bostonians are "too aware" of that fact. That's why the Giants will probably win.

During the season, Boston had one of the better records, 13-3. The Giants were barely winners, at 9-7. The latter were 7-7, dead even, coming into a matchup against their fellow New Yorkers, the Jets. Victories over that rival, and then the Dallas Cowboys put them "over the top" in their division, the weakest in major league football.

Raw statistics tell an even more lopsided story. During the season, the Giants scored 394 and gave up 400, for a "differential of minus six that suggests at .500 team that was "lucky" by a game. Meanwhile, the Patriots scored 171 points more than they gave up, supporting their winning record. Over the course of a whole season, Tom Brady has a better quarterback rating (106) than Eli Manning (93).

But the statistics aren't all in favor of the Patriots. The Giants have the advantage of a more balanced team. For instance, the Bostonians had the second best offense in the NFL, and the second worst defense. On the other hand, the New Yorkers had the ninth best offense and the seventh worse defense, a less extreme distribution.They also have two receivers with over 1500 yards, and two rushers with over 500 yards. Boston has the two 1500-yard plus receivers, but only one 500-plus yard rusher. If he is hurt, or otherwise having a bad day, the Patriots might not be able to do much on the ground.

It's feast or famine with the Patriots. On the other hand, the Giants can step up when they need to.

My computer tells me that the Boston Patriots will win the Super Bowl. My gut says the New York Giants.