Super Bowl 2012: Patriots vs. Giants, Expert and Computer Simulation Picks

As if we need to break down Super Bowl XLVI between the New England Patriots and New York Giants even more, how about some computer simulations and expert picks?

Obviously the question we'll find out by game's end is; who was right and who was wrong? That said, here's what to expect on Super Sunday according to ESPN and Madden '12.

Madden '12

In an article by Connor Rose of the New England Sports Network, the Pats fall to New York 27-24:

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On Friday, Jan. 27, ESPN released its simulation of Super Bowl XLVI. The simulation awarded the win to the Giants on a field goal as time expired.

Let it be known that though the Madden simulations have been correct for six of the last eight Super Bowls, Madden was correct just over 60 percent of the time this season..

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Well, Super Bowl XLII was won by three points in favor of the Giants and the regular season meeting in 2011 was 24-20, also in New York's favor.

As Rose mentioned, with the Madden simulation only missing two of the last eight Super Bowls, one of those was simulating New England over New York in 2008. Maybe 2012 has another opposing outcome?

It is quite possible because last season Madden simulated the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV. So, being that the artificial intelligence is on a one-game losing streak, don't be surprised if that continues.

ESPN Accuscore

A predicted 30-28 final score in favor of New England, ESPN Accuscore also favors the Patriots a 55 to 45 percent of the time.

Throughout the course of the postseason the Accuscore is just 6-4 but finished the regular season 174-82, which is better than all of ESPN's panel of experts.

To that end, let's take a look at how the experts have fared this postseason.

ESPN NFL Experts

Merrill Hoge and Chris Mortensen lead all experts and computer simulations for the 2011-12 NFL playoffs with a record of 8-2.

Ironically though, Hoge and Mortensen finished just No. 4 and No. 6 among their peers in the regular season. So along the same lines as the accuscore, which flipped from a great regular season to a less impressive postseason, Hoge and Mortensen were worse in the regular season but great in the playoffs.

As for Super Bowl XLVI, six of the eight experts are taking the Giants over the Patriots. Only Adam Schefter and Mark Schlereth are picking New England.

Summary

Although it's fun to watch and see what happens, we must learn to take any computer simulation with a grain of salt. Also, getting caught up in what the experts say still doesn't have any affect on the game.

Only those taking part such as the players, coaches and referees can tangibly determine the game's outcome. The nature of human error is why the game is actually played and not just chosen by picks or simulations.

John Rozum on Twitter.