Analyzing the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament Draw

Yesterday, the draw for the tournament that will decide the final three spots in the 2012 Olympic Men’s Basketball Tournament (to be held in Caracas in July) was announced.

Puerto Rico, who has solid guard play in J.J. Barea and Carlos Arroyo, was the clear loser in the draw.  It was drawn into preliminary Group A, which is the “group of death” in this year’s tournament. It contains fourth-ranked Greece (the highest-ranked FIBA team who hasn’t already qualified) and a surprising Jordan team that came within a basket of winning the Asian championship.

By contrast, the Angolan team that missed out on winning the African championship got the weak draw it needed to have hopes of qualifying.  It drew Macedonia (the only European team in this tournament not ranked in the top 12) and the New Zealand Tall Blacks who are ranked 18th.

Russia, coming out of Group C, has the easiest road to winning its group.  Its opponents are a Dominican Republic team that might be without star-player Al Horford and a weak South Korean team.

Fifth-ranked Lithuania joins host Venezuela and third-place African team Nigeria in Group B.

My projection: Greece, Lithuania, Russia and the Tall Blacks win their groups.  Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Dominican Republic and Angola are runners-up.  Then, Greece, Russia, Lithuania and the D.R. win the quarters.  Greece and Lithuania win the semifinals and Russia beats out Calipari’s D.R. team for the final slot.