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Super Bowl Prop Bets: Patriots vs. Giants, Risky Spreads to Stay Away from

John RozumJun 6, 2018

Thanks to the Super Bowl being the biggest sporting event in America, combined with the rematch between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants, what seems like an infinite number of prop bets are available.

Now most are reasonable, such as picking which running back will gain the most yards, or who will throw more touchdown passes: Tom Brady or Eli Manning?

However, there are a few prop bets to steer clear of, as they may pay off big but are arguably the toughest of decisions.

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Player Who Gets First Interception

The appealing aspect of this prop bet is that since the Pats and Giants are pass-oriented offenses, the odds of an interception are significantly increased.

That may be true, but there are numerous defenders to choose from, and this Super Bowl will not have as many turnovers as the regular season contest.

There, the rock was turned over six times, and Brady and Manning combined for three interceptions. And despite coming off a poor performance in the AFC title game, Brady doesn't generally have two bad games in a row.

What we're also forgetting is how stellar each passing offense is in comparison to the counterpart defenses. Each defense is extremely susceptible to allowing tons of passing yards, and interceptions will only happen if a risk is taken.

On top of that, trying to determine the exact player who comes away with the game's first interception is quite a long shot.

Player Who Scores the First TD

Definitely a risky bet because there are 22 players on the field for every snap, and even more to choose from when thinking about each team's offense, defense and special teams.

Obviously a safe bet would be someone like Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski or Hakeem Nicks. But lest we forget, the regular season game between the two teams went into halftime at 0-0, and a touchdown wasn't scored until the middle of the third quarter.

Also, because the game of football can be so chaotic, anyone can score at anytime. So the amount of confidence when placing this bet must be extremely high, otherwise it's not worth the stress.

For one, each quarterback loves to dish the ball around to at least three different receiving targets, and the defenses really tighten when backed up inside their own red zones.

Super Bowl XLVI isn't going to be an insanely high-scoring affair, and touchdowns will be few and far between. The regular season game was only 24-20, and Super Bowl XLII was 17-14, both in favor of the Giants.

In other words, beware of this bet because once a touchdown happens it's over.

Will there be a Special Teams/Defensive TD?

Whether it was Super Bowl XLII, the Pats-Giants 2011 regular season meeting, or any of their five combined playoff games in 2012, there has not been one special teams or defensive touchdown scored.

Now, as evidenced by the law of averages and economic statistics, this means that those odds should increase, correct?

Well, a lot also depends on probabilities. This season, the Giants did not score one time on special teams or defense, while the Patriots scored once on a punt return and had two defensive touchdowns.

So, based on the ability to force turnovers, the odds are in favor of New England taking advantage without its offense possessing the ball. We must also take into consideration how great the New York punt coverage team and defense has played this postseason.

The Giants recovered two fumbles against San Francisco on punts, and allowed just 39 total points between three games this postseason, while forcing six total turnovers.

The Giants also intercepted Tom Brady twice in the regular season meeting.

All this being said, remember that New York had no defensive or special teams touchdowns this season, and the Patriots haven't done much better. But, if you are to take a chance on one of these three props, this is the one.

In each of the previous three Super Bowls, there has been an interception returned for a touchdown (James Harrison, Tracy Porter, Tramon Williams).

John Rozum on Twitter.

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