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Super Bowl 2012: Predicting Stats for the New England Patriots' Biggest Stars

Andrea HangstJan 30, 2012

The 46th Super Bowl is just a few days away, with the New York Giants and New England Patriots meeting in the NFL's biggest game for the second time in four seasons.

The Patriots aren't the same squad that they were when the two teams first met in the Super Bowl, and those changes are what have gotten the team this far this season.

Instead of quarterback Tom Brady relying on making big plays to traditional wideouts, he now has two top-tier tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and slot receiver Wes Welker as his primary targets.

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Gronkowski's production in the Super Bowl will depend on how healthy he is. He suffered a high ankle sprain in the AFC championship game against the Baltimore Ravens and has yet to practice. He'll need to get offseason surgery on the ankle, which doesn't bode well for his chances to be at full effectiveness on Sunday.

Gronkowski doesn't really need to practice, if his 2011 season is any indication. He broke the single-season records for yards and scores by a tight end, catching 90 passes for 1,327 yards and netting 18 total touchdowns.

His biggest day of the postseason came against the Denver Broncos, in which he had 145 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

With his high ankle sprain, don't expect Gronkowski to put up those kinds of numbers this Sunday. If he can play the full four quarters, he should pull down five passes for 60 to 70 yards and one touchdown. If he re-aggravates the ankle, then all bets are off.

Hernandez, his counterpart, is dangerous both in the passing and running games, especially in the postseason.

With Gronkowski hobbled, look for Hernandez's targets and receptions to increase. He should get at least 10 and as many as 15 passes thrown his way; he's likely to pull down most of them, and should end the day very close to 100 receiving yards and a touchdown, perhaps two. He should also get up to five carries, for 35 to 45 yards.

Welker has remained Brady's most reliable receiving target, despite the emergence of the two second-year tight ends. Welker, like Hernandez, will be picking up much of Gronkowski's slack, but he's also a threat in his own right.

Welker should see 10 to 15 targets in the Super Bowl and could easily have over 100 yards when the game is over. I don't, however, predict Welker to have more than one touchdown against the Giants.

But the biggest star on the Patriots offense is Brady, the future Hall of Fame quarterback who has led his team to three Super Bowl championships in his 11 years as starter.

Brady is coming off of his worst postseason showing in his career, throwing for just 239 yards with two interceptions and one rushing touchdown in his team's AFC championship win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Though susceptible to pressure and not immune to throwing the occasional pick, Brady's had quite the 2011 season, completing 65.6 of his passes for 5,235 yards, 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He's also rushed for three scores in the regular season.

Brady is sure to bounce back from his disappointing AFC championship showing. I predict him putting up yet another 300-plus-yard passing day in the Super Bowl, and throwing at least three touchdowns.

Don't be surprised, however, if he throws a pick and loses a fumble, with the Giants defense planning to put some serious pressure on him throughout the game.

The Patriots offense is loaded with some of the top playmakers in the NFL, all of whom should make major impacts in this Sunday's Super Bowl. If the Patriots end up with fewer than 325 total passing yards in this game, it will both be a surprise and a likely Giants victory.

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