Super Bowl Predictions 2012: Stars, Scores and Statistical Projections
Fans of the NFL have been somewhat spoiled with really entertaining Super Bowls over the course of the last four seasons. Usually the two-week hype leading up to the big game overshadows the actual game itself, but this hasn't been the case recently.
Expect this trend of entertaining Super Bowl performances to continue next Sunday in Indianapolis, when the New York Giants take on the New England Patriots for the holy grail.
This article is going to give you my predictions on the final score of the game and the statistical performances of the most prominent offensive players.
The Quarterbacks
1 of 5Tom Brady: 31/46, 354 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and a 103.0 quarterback rating.
There is no way that either quarterback is held under 300 yards in this game. The secondaries aren't good enough to hold back these high-powered attacks, and neither team has a consistent running game to help out the signal callers.
Tom Brady will get his yardage and touchdowns no matter the pressure that is put on him by the New York Giants' front. Expect him to utilize the mismatches up the middle by going to Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez against the Giants' safeties and linebackers. What could make this stat line even better is if Brady does get time in order to find Wes Welker on the outside.
Eli Manning: 25/35, 345 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 131.1 quarterback rating.
The Giants' quarterback has only thrown two interceptions in his last 183 pass attempts, dating back to their Week 15 loss to the Washington Redskins. He was fortunate to come out of the NFC Championship without throwing an interception or two. There were situations in which the 49ers let mistakes from Manning slip through their hands.
That said, outside of Kyle Arrington, the Patriots' secondary accounted for just nine interceptions. They are much less opportunistic than the opponents New York played in the NFC Playoffs.
There is no doubt that Manning will have his fair share of receivers open on the outside going up against a lackluster secondary.
The Running Backs
2 of 5BenJarvis Green-Ellis: seven rushes, 28 yards, 4.0 average and one touchdown.
Green Ellis has scored 11 touchdowns on the ground this season, which was a team high. There does remain a chance that the Patriots will turn to him on short yardage distances in the red zone. However, the primary focus of their offense will be to get it done through the air. This is what has gotten them to this point and it will not change.
Danny Woodhead: six rushes, 30 yards, 5.0 average and zero touchdowns.
The New England Patriots will definitely give Woodhead a couple carries here and there, but he will not be a major factor in this game. Instead, you will see them go to Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley (if active) more often.
Ahmad Bradshaw: 14 rushes, 55 yards, 3.9 average and one touchdown.
Bradshaw is the type of running back that could cause problems for the New England Patriots. He is extremely versatile, able to go to the outside and runs well between the hashes. The Giants will definitely make an attempt to run the ball early, which will give him some reps in order to get started. He didn't play in the teams' November matchup.
Brandon Jacobs: six rushes, 18 yards, 3.0 average and zero touchdowns.
The enigmatic running back sure talks a big game, but his performance on the field hasn't been as good as he would like us to think in 2011. Don't expect a mirage of success in the Super Bowl, either. Like I said before, the Giants will attempt to get the running game going early, but it will be more with Bradshaw than Jacobs.
The Tight Ends
3 of 5Rob Gronkowski: seven receptions, 101 yards and two touchdowns.
It was reported last night that the Pro Bowl tight end will be available for the New England Patriots come Sunday. Although this doesn't come as much of a surprise to us, it is telling because this report came so far from game day. It pretty much means that Gronkowski will be near 100 percent for the Super Bowl.
This is bad news for the New York Giants. Nobody has been able to stop the Brady-to-Gronkowksi connection, which leads me to believe the Giants will have the same issue that the previous 18 Patriots opponents have had this season.
Aaron Hernandez: five receptions, 65 yards and zero touchdowns.
The former Florida Gator' would be a No. 1 tight end on a vast majority of the teams in the NFL. Here, with the Patriots, he takes a complementary role to the aforementioned Gronkowski. However, it seems to be more like 1A and 1B than anything else.
Don't expect Hernandez to be targeted as much, but his success will definitely be there between the hashes in two tight end sets.
Jake Ballard: three receptions, 53 yards and one touchdown.
The second year tight end averaged a whopping 15.9 yards per reception this season. He has been somewhat lost in the success of their trio of receivers, but is a major threat himself. Look for Eli Manning to have the necessary time to get to his second or third reads, which means that Ballard will find open field up the middle, between the hashes.
I expect to see him get a huge play in the Patriots' end of the field as New England attempts to shutdown Cruz, Nicks and Manningham.
The Wide Receivers
4 of 5Wes Welker: six receptions, 95 yards and one touchdown.
Whether it is Aaron Ross or Corey Webster on Wes Welker, the Patriots No. 1 receiver will definitely get his targets. You can expect Tom Brady to look for him on a deep seam early in the game to set the tone on offense and spread out the Giants' defense to an extent.
Either way, Welker will get his yardage.
Chad Ochocinco: four receptions, 58 yards and zero touchdowns.
Make no mistake about it, Chad Ochocinco will come to play in the Super Bowl. This is a type of stage that has avoided the enigmatic receiver during his stellar career, and he will not pass up an opportunity to shine in it. Additionally, the Giants are going to be focusing their defensive coverage on Welker and the tight end combo, which will leave Chad open on the outside against one-on-one coverage.
Hakeem Nicks: six receptions, 85 yards and zero touchdowns.
After dominating on the outside in the Giant's first two playoff wins this postseason, Nicks took a secondary role behind Victor Cruz in the NFC Championship Game. A lot of this had to do with an early shoulder injury that he suffered.
He will be healthy come game day, which spells trouble for the New England Patriots' secondary. Still, I envision a secondary role in this game as well.
Victor Cruz: eight receptions, 146 yards and two touchdowns.
Brent Grimes, Charles Woodson and Carlos Rogers. What do these three top tier corners have in common? They all went up against the Giants' three-headed monster at the wide receiver position. A majority of the time, these three were lined up opposite Victor Cruz, who consistently made plays.
This isn't going to change in the Super Bowl. Cruz has performed at an extremely high level against elite corners all season. His performances are something that are usually only reserved for the greatest receivers to step on the football field. It goes without saying, Cruz is going to have a monster game Sunday.
Mario Manningham: three receptions, 47 yards and one touchdown.
The Giants' No. 3 wide receiver was held to one reception in the NFC Championship Game and that was against the 49ers' No. 4 corner after Tarell Brown went down to injury. Eli Manning hasn't changed the rules of the game, he still only has one ball to throw.
This means that one of the Giants' receivers will not get targeted nearly as much as the other two: I expect that receiver to be Mario Manningham. He is still a nice target down in the red zone, and should come up with a touchdown as the Patriots slide their coverage away from him.
Final Score and Prediction
5 of 5Final Score
New York Giants: 35
New England Patriots: 31
The defenses are going to have a hell of a time stopping the offenses in this game, which should make for one interesting Super Bowl Sunday. My major point of contention in predicting the New York Giants to win this game is the fact that the Patriots are going to have an incredibly hard time stopping their passing game.
I don't envision New England being able to get to Eli Manning with a straight four-man rush. This means that they are going to have to send blitzes, which leaves receivers in one-on-one situations on the outside. Even the best corners in the league were unable to stop them in this situation, New England's lackluster group of corners will only struggle more.
In regards to Tom Brady: He will perform up to the level that we have seen for the better part of the last decade. There really isn't any questioning his ability to come up huge in big games—he will. I think that the Giants will be able to put enough pressure on him to get the quarterback out of his comfort zone on occasion. As with what we saw in the AFC Championship Game, this could lead to a mistake by Brady down the field.
This is a game where every single possession is going to be under a microscope. Not just because it is the Super Bowl, but because it stars two high-octane offenses. The team that makes the least amount of mistakes on offense will win. My money is on the Giants being that team in a high-scoring duel.
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