Super Bowl Odds 2012: Breaking Down the Patriots' and Giants' Odds

According to BetVega.com, the New England Patriots are -3-point favorites against the New York Giants for Super Bowl XLVI.

That being said, the over/under is 55 total points and each franchise's odds haven't changed since Jan. 21.

There, New England's are 6/5 and New York's are 3/1. So, who should you bet on? Well, let's break down the odds for each team first.

New England Patriots

On a 6/5 odds regardless of how much money is laid down, the return is 120 percent. All you do is divide six into five, which equals 1.2. Multiply that by 100 to get a whole number, which is 120.

As for how the Patriots will actually perform, to really crunch the numbers we must look at their recent numbers and recent history against the Giants.

In two postseason games New England won by an average score of 34-15. However, it's a skewed stat as 45 of their 68 postseason points came against the much weaker Denver Broncos.

So, with 66 percent of their points coming in one game and the remaining 34 percent coming against Baltimore, the average isn't as strong. Against the Giants during the season the Patriots fell 24-20 at home and 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII.

Those are the two most recent games against the Giants, and the Pats lost by an average score of 20.5 to 17.

Therefore, it's at least certain that Super Bowl XLVI will be a close game. Include their recent production as well as the games against New York, and New England will reasonably score anywhere from 17 to 31 points.

That said, let's break down the Giants before we narrow down the Pats even more.

New York Giants

With 3/1 odds the return will be 300 percent if you bet on the Giants, which obviously makes them the underdog for those not interested in the point spread.

The Giants have a bit more to provide us with as they've played one more playoff game than New England.

In three playoff games this season, New York has won by an average of 27-13, with 45 percent of their 81 postseason points coming against Green Bay in the Divisional Round.

That's not nearly as skewed as the Patriots, however, because of the solid defenses each faced in the conference championship games, the numbers are down.

We also must take into account how unhealthy the Giants were this season as that affected a deceiving 9-7 record. Had New York been healthy for 16 games, they could have realistically gone 12-4.

Also looking at their two most recent games against New England, which they won by a 20.5-17 average score, the Giants' scoring range will be anywhere from 21 to 28 points.

Prediction

One thing we're forgetting is how solid the Patriots are at stopping the run as well as having a better than advertised pass rush.

We know the secondary is vulnerable, but they can also be opportunistic. As for New York, it simply comes down to their rush offense and rush defense.

The Giants finished with the NFL's worst ground game in 2011, and even once healthy the front seven has struggled with consistency against the run.

New England may not be a run-first team. However, it proved otherwise against Baltimore, who has one of the NFL's best rush defenses. This game isn't going to be nearly as high-scoring as expected since both defenses are peaking at the right time.

Provided that the stout pass protection holds up against the pass rush, solid points will be put up.

To that end, something has to give in a close game and the main edge goes to New England as the Patriots have Rob Gronkowski with a more capable rushing offense than given credit for.

Patriots 28, Giants 24

Take the Patriots against the spread and the "under"

John Rozum on Twitter