Ranking the Top 15 WRs in 2012

With breakout performances from Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, 2011 may be considered the year of the tight end.

The playoffs have continued that trend with big impacts from Graham, Gronkowski, Vernon Davis and Aaron Hernandez.

However, quality production from wide receivers will be incredibly important next year, especially if you don’t land one of the top TEs.

If you can land one or two of the following receivers, you could take a flyer on a sleeper TE in the later rounds while someone else pays for Gronkowski’s career year.

These WRs have the potential for over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. First are some guys who just missed the cut, followed by the top 15 receivers for the 2012 fantasy season.

Just Missed the Cut

Vincent Jackson, SD: What was bothering Philip Rivers at the beginning of the season? And how will it continue to affect San Diego’s top receiver? 

Marques Colston, NO: He would put up better fantasy numbers with a different QB. Drew Brees gets everyone involved and doesn’t force balls to his top outside threat. The emergence of TE Jimmy Graham also hurts his value a bit.

Percy Harvin, MIN: Harvin just misses because of inconsistency at the QB position in Minnesota. Christian Ponder will likely get another chance to prove he’s an NFL starter in his sophomore season. 

Brandon Marshall, MIA: Here's another talented WR with a question mark at QB. He worked well with Matt Moore but the Dolphins may go a different direction next season. The QB situation (and a history of drops) keep him out of the top 15.

15. Julio Jones

A successful rookie campaign lands Jones just inside the top 15, as he showed the potential of a big-time fantasy producer.

An average of 17.8 yards per catch was impressive, as were 8 receiving TDs. Jones is currently Atlanta’s No. 2 receiver behind Roddy White (White: 181 targets, Jones: 96 targets).

A shift to an even more prominent role seems likely, though. Jones gained 417 yards after the catch on 54 receptions. Roddy White had fewer yards after the catch (364) on 46 more receptions. This translates to an average of 7.44 yards after the catch for Jones and just 3.64 for White.

White is still a great receiver (and will appear higher on this list), but he is 30 years old now and we could see a shift similar to the Isaac Bruce/Torry Holt situation from St. Louis in 2000 and 2001.

Matt Ryan isn’t Kurt Warner, but he will do enough so both guys produce.

14. Dwayne Bowe

Bowe’s TD receptions dropped to five after a 2010 season in which he caught 15.

The loss of QB Matt Cassel in Week 9 seemed to be a primary cause for the dropoff. Bowe had four of his five receiving TDs through Week 9. Bowe didn’t add the last TD until Week 16 when he hooked up with late-season addition Kyle Orton.

Bowe is a no-doubt-about-it No. 1 receiver and is in the prime of his career. I expect the TD numbers to pick back up a bit and approach double digits if the Chiefs can stick with one QB for a larger part of the season.

13. Dez Bryant

If one Dallas receiver is going to break out and be a clear No. 1, my money would be on Dez Bryant.

Staying healthy will be key for the third-year receiver in 2012. Dez led the Dallas Cowboy receivers in targets in 2011 with 103. Laurent Robinson was second with 83.

If he plays in all 16 games, he should break the 1,000-yard receiving mark and make a run at double-digit TDs for the first time in his young career.

12. A.J. Green

Green put up impressive numbers in his rookie season with fellow rookie Andy Dalton at QB. Green and Dalton developed a chemistry quickly and they played a big part in Cincinnati's run to the postseason.

Continuity is the key for Green in 2012. He showed big-play ability against tough defenses, especially against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Green cracked the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie and will turn in another 1,000-yard season in 2012. 

11. Victor Cruz

Cruz seemingly came out of nowhere this season and finished in the Top 10 in all major receiving categories.

The reason he doesn’t crack the top 10 on this list is because I believe Cruz was the beneficiary of a few breaks this season.

Cruz had 25 receptions of 20-plus yards, tied for third-most in the league. Five of those receptions were for 68 yards or more.

This shows Cruz has great big-play ability and breakaway speed. The only worry is, what happens when the big plays aren’t there?

Does Cruz give you enough on a down-by-down basis?

Could he be as inconsistent as DeSean Jackson because of this?

Cruz had better statistics in 2011 than teammate Hakeem Nicks, but Nicks ranks higher on the list partially because of those question marks.

10. Steve Smith

Smith enjoyed a resurgence in 2011 with the addition of the dynamic Cam Newton at QB.

Smith more than doubled his receiving yards from 2010 and nearly doubled his reception total. He finished the season with 77 catches for 1,394 yards and seven TDs.

He’ll be 33 by the time next season rolls around, but Cam Newton will have gone through a full training camp this time.

I suspect the increased experience for Cam will more than compensate for another year on Smith. His 2012 production should equal or best his 2011 numbers.

9. Jordy Nelson

Nelson had the second-best fantasy season in 2011, behind only Calvin Johnson. He hauled in 15 TDs on just 68 receptions.

However, I think it’s safe to say that 15 TDs will remain his career high.

Considering his previous career high was two, a return to single-digits is a real possibility. Aaron Rodgers will continue to spread the ball around in the Packers' aerial attack.

Consider this, Nelson had more than six receptions in only one game in 2011. And that was with backup QB Matt Flynn in Week 17.

For comparison, Calvin Johnson had six games with more than six receptions, Wes Welker had nine, Larry Fitzgerald had five and Victor Cruz, Roddy White and Steve Smith all had four.

Nelson is a top 10 fantasy WR, I just think he peaked in 2011.                             

8. Mike Wallace

Antonio Brown was actually the most targeted receiver on the Steelers, but Mike Wallace continues to be the best producer for Ben Roethlisberger.

Brown and Wallace had similar numbers in all categories except one: TDs.

Wallace hauled in eight while Brown had just two.

Next season could be even better for Wallace as opposing defenses now have two speedsters to be wary of on the outside. Wallace is more likely to take advantage of the open space in the middle of the field.

7. Hakeem Nicks

Hakeem Nicks makes plays.

He’s shown it in the regular season. He’s shown it in the postseason.

The knock on Nicks is his inconsistency, but showing up big in the playoffs is a good sign. Nicks also has a slight edge in regular season targets over fellow Giant WR Victor Cruz (133 to 131).

But the big hint in Eli Manning’s preference has come in the postseason. Nicks has been targeted 18 times while Cruz has only been targeted seven.

2012 should be the year Nicks puts it all together, as he can ride on the confidence gained from the 2011 postseason. This 24-year-old is primed for a big 2012.

6. Roddy White

White was the NFL’s most targeted receiver for the second-straight season—even with the addition of first-round draft pick WR Julio Jones.

For now, the addition of Jones is helpful to Roddy White’s fantasy production, as defenses have two outside threats to worry about.

Until that target distribution flip-flops, Roddy White is your guy on the Falcons. Jones may surpass him in yards this year (in fact, I’ll predict that), but White will be the most consistent with more targets, receptions and TDs.  

5. Andre Johnson

Johnson battled a hamstring injury and missed nine regular season games in 2011.

However, he did return for Houston’s final three games and had a good showing in the playoffs (13 catches, 201 yards, TD in two games).

He’s 30, but is still one of the top WR talents in the league. He’s also No. 1 in Houston, where Matt Schaub likes to air it out. Schaub will be returning from a foot injury in 2012 and will be a key to Johnson’s success.

4. Greg Jennings

Fellow Packer Jordy Nelson put up better fantasy numbers this season, but I would argue that Jennings is the Packers’ best receiver and fantasy option for 2012.

Part of the argument rests on the amount of times Jennings was targeted. Jennings led the Packers with 105 targets despite missing three games. Nelson was second with 96 targets.

Jennings missed the last three games of 2011 with a knee injury but returned for the team’s playoff game against the Giants. 

Like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers can spread the ball. Still, he has shown a slight preference for Jennings.

3. Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald’s fantasy production actually picked up from a down 2010 despite inconsistency at the QB position from both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton. Still, the numbers were less than you'd expect from one of the most talented receivers in the game. 

Fitzgerald was the fourth-most targeted receiver of 2011 and is his team’s clear No. 1 offensive threat. A return to double-digit TDs is likely with a bit of steady QB play.

Fitzgerald had double-digit TD receptions in 2005 and from 2007-2009.

2. Wes Welker

Wes Welker is far from your prototypical No. 1 wide receiver.

For one, he’s undersized (5’9”, 185 lbs).

Also, his yards per reception are low for a No. 1 receiver (11.1 career vs. 16 for Calvin Johnson or 13.9 for Larry Fitzgerald).

But what he lacks in size he makes up for in savvy. And while he doesn't make as many big plays down the field, he makes catches from sideline to sideline.

Welker has led the NFL in receptions two out of the last three seasons with 122 receptions in 2011 and 123 in 2009.

Having great chemistry with Tom Brady certainly doesn't hurt his fantasy value, either.

1. Calvin Johnson

He wins one-on-one, he had the third most targets in the NFL last season (158) and he plays with a top QB (Matthew Stafford).

Johnson was the No. 1 fantasy receiver in 2011 and there is no reason to believe he won’t put up similar numbers this year.

Another season with 16 TDs might be a stretch, but I like the fact that he’s the clear No. 1 option on his team and has a consistent passer throwing to him. 

Also, at 26 years old, he’s entering the prime of his career. Johnson is perhaps the league's most complete receiver and worst matchup for defensive backs.

It's scary, but we may not have seen the best of Calvin Johnson yet.