One Reason to Doubt Every 2012 BCS Championship Contender

We've already released our list of top contenders and pretenders for next season's BCS National Championship, so now it's time to look at reasons why we might start to doubt those teams we listed as contenders.

Moving from one season to the next is a difficult thing in college football. Coaches get players for just four years, and any sustained success is very difficult to capture. That's not to say that some programs haven't done a great job building themselves into annual contenders, but there's always room for doubt in the college game.

Here, we'll take a look at our top contenders, and give our reasons why one might doubt their chances in 2012.

Contender No. 10: Oklahoma Sooners

After the slide the Sooners suffered in 2011, there's plenty of doubt hanging around Norman.

For a team that was a consensus No. 1 to start the season, Oklahoma can't be happy with its 10-3 finish.

As if two earlier losses to Baylor and Texas Tech weren't enough, the Sooners were absolutely undressed by in-state rival Oklahoma State.

The Sooners will need to regroup and refocus for the 2012 season, and rather than looking ahead towards January, the Sooners will need to look no further than the week ahead of them.

Oklahoma is graduating enough talent to cause some minor concerns, but the biggest reason for doubt at OU is the near-constant underperformance over the past several seasons, including a 1-5 mark in BCS bowl games (with the only win coming against 8-4 Connecticut in the 2011 Fiesta Bowl).

Before voters jump back on the Sooners' bandwagon, many will wait to see some sustained success.

Contender No. 9: Virginia Tech Hokies

Since moving to the ACC, the Virginia Tech Hokies have become a regular participant, although they relied on an at-large bid to earn a trip to the 2012 Sugar Bowl.

The Hokies have traveled to six BCS bowl games over the years, but have posted a 1-5 record.

And while Va Tech has never finished lower than second place in the ACC-Coastal, the Hokies haven't quite ever been able to capture lightning in a bottle. Wins are great, and the Hokies have plenty of them, but there are always a couple of untimely losses each season that serve to derail any hopes of a BCS National Championship Game berth.

Virginia Tech hasn't finished outside of the Top 25 since the 2003 season, and only twice since 1992, so another good finish is a pretty safe bet. And with starting quarterback Logan Thomas returning, there's plenty of hope for a return trip to the ACC Championship Game in 2012.

Va Tech also has a pretty favorable non-conference schedule in the works, but with a resurgent ACC, it will be very difficult for the Hokies to hope to emerge unscathed from the conference.

On top of that, allowing a Michigan team that was dominated in nearly every way to squeak out a win in the 2012 Sugar Bowl isn't exactly confidence-inspiring.

Contender No. 8: Georgia Bulldogs

As far as SEC schedules go, Georgia got off pretty easy in 2011.

The 2012 season looks to be headed in much the same direction. There won't be any cross-divisional games against Alabama or LSU in 2012, and the biggest scheduled game of the year—against South Carolina—falls in October, and will be played in Columbia.

That being said, we witnessed the continued maturation of Aaron Murray, and Mark Richt seemed to have his team back to a form at least approaching what UGA fans are used to seeing.

While the 2011 season may have served to get Richt off the hot seat, it's doubtful whether or not any team from the SEC East will be able to stop the streak put up by the West in December.

In reality, there's not a whole lot of reason to dislike Georgia next season. It's just that the SEC West has been so powerful as of late, it's doubtful any team from the East Division can really break through to win an SEC title.

Contender No. 7: South Carolina Gamecocks

Throughout the 2011 season, South Carolina never dropped from the Top 25, and by the time the BCS rankings were being released weekly, SC never had a ranking lower than 14th.

After finishing the season as the No. 9 team in the AP Poll, it's likely Carolina will find itself pretty highly ranked to start 2012, and it's role as a member of the SEC automatically gives the Gamecocks a leg up.

South Carolina is also returning a very talented group of players for 2012, including several award winners. But the most important returnee may be Marcus Lattimore.

Lattimore was on track for one heckuva season in 2011 before being sidelined with a season-ending injury early on.

With an impressive win over Nebraska in the 2012 Capital One Bowl, things are looking pretty nice in Columbia right now.

But it's not all sunshine and rainbows.

Besides an up-and-coming (not to mention SEC East title-defending) Georgia team, South Carolina will face two of the top teams in the nation next season: LSU and Arkansas.

Both the Tigers and Razorbacks will likely begin 2012 with a higher ranking than Carolina, and the October 13 game against LSU is in Baton Rouge.

We've already mentioned how long it's been since a team from the East Division has managed an SEC title, but even if the Gamecocks of 2012 turn out to be that team, it's highly doubtful it will be as an undefeated or even one-loss team.

Contender No. 6: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

For as many reasons there are to like Notre Dame in 2012 and consider it a contender, there are at least as many doubts about the Irish's chances.

Next season will be Brian Kelly's third at the helm in South Bend, and it's starting to become crunch time. While previous coaches at Notre Dame have been given four or five years to prove their worth, the patience of the Irish faithful has to be wearing a bit thin.

Kelly is in the midst of a very turbulent recruiting season, with commitments, decommitments and changing commitments. Kelly has long preached that he's going after “his kind” of person to be a football player at Notre Dame, and that the transition process for the program won't be a short one. But how long are Notre Dame fans expected to wait?

We're in no way saying 2012 will be Kelly's make-or-break season, and he already has as many wins in two season as Charlie Weis did in his final three.

But 8-5 isn't the goal in South Bend. Winning eight games will certainly buy Kelly some more time at Notre Dame, but most will want to see some improvements this season.

With Tommy Rees returning next season with some sorely needed experience under his belt, Notre Dame may be able to turn a few of those narrow defeats into victories. The announced return of Manti Te'o also provides a solid boost.

Still, the loss of mega-playmaker Michael Floyd can't be overstated. The loss of offensive coordinator Charley Molnar to new FBS program UMass will also have an impact, and Molnar is being replaced by Chuck Martin.

Martin, who was Kelly's defensive coordinator at Grand Valley State, was known for his ultra-conservative offensive play-calling when he became head coach at GVSU when Kelly departed. It remains to be seen if he'll be able to break that mold as OC at Notre Dame.

Finally, Notre Dame has—at last—scheduled itself a halfway decent slate of games, from a strength-of-schedule standpoint.

In addition to the annual games against USC, Stanford, Michigan and Michigan State, the Irish will also face Oklahoma in late October in Norman.

With a tougher-than-expected schedule from the Irish, two losses can probably be considered a lock for a BCS bowl next season.

One loss, while a long shot, would almost certainly guarantee Notre Dame a trip to Miami for the BCS National Championship Game on January 7.

Contender No. 5: Oregon Ducks

After a very long 95 years, the Oregon Ducks can once against claim the title of Rose Bowl Game champions.

Far from the tough early schedule of 2011, the Ducks will have a much smoother road to get to the Pac-12 portion of the season. Arkansas State, Fresno State and Tennessee make up the non-con schedule for Oregon, but the Ducks still drew USC as a cross-divisional matchup in 2012.

The Ducks will also need to chase down a third straight conference title without the services of Darron Thomas.

Most pundits expected Thomas to return to Eugene for his senior season to help guide a well-stocked Oregon offense to a fourth straight BCS game, perhaps even a return trip to the BCS title game.

But with his degree in hand, Oregon's all-time leading touchdown passer decided he wanted to try his fortunes in the NFL.

While Thomas' departure certainly doesn't mean Oregon can't make a run in 2012, it's hard to replace everything Thomas provided to the team.

Contender No. 4: Alabama Crimson Tide

Okay. We all know Nick Saban must be God's gift to Alabama football.

We also know that he's one darn-good recruiter, and can reload his power program as good as, if not better than, anyone in the nation.

But even Saban has to be looking at next season's depth charts and wondering where in the heck he's supposed to get enough SEC game-ready talent to replace the likes of Trent Richardson, Dont'a Hightower and Dre Kirkpatrick in addition to the usual exodus of graduating seniors.

Anyone who thinks that such departures mark the end of an era at Alabama clearly haven't been watching much football for the last few years, but how can Saban possibly transition the Tide into a title defense season without three players who played such huge roles in winning it this time around?

Curiously enough, Alabama will likely begin the 2012 season as one of the Top Three teams in the nation (no doubt helping along the self-fulfilling prophesy of SEC dominance), and the Crimson Tide will easily be one of the early favorites to win the conference in 2012.

But winning one BCS title is hard enough. Winning it two years in a row is something no one has accomplished before, even without the losses Saban is looking at today.

Contender No. 3: LSU Tigers

One word: leadership.

The Tigers' woeful lack of on-field leadership was their biggest downfall in the 2012 BCS National Championship Game against Alabama.

Without that one special player that can create a spark, a team that falls behind might stay behind. Jordan Jefferson clearly wasn't the right quarterback for the job against the Tide, as his constant bewildered and frustrated facial expressions on January 9 revealed.

While LSU does have a bevy of talent returning in 2012, that one special player who can reinvigorate his teammates has yet to be discovered.

Contender No. 2: USC Trojans

We were all expecting to see a downtrodden USC team emerge from the bane of NCAA sanctions.

Oops.

Apparently, we forgot that USC is USC.

As if to flip everyone the bird, the Trojans put together an impressive 10-2 season in 2011, which included an impressive win over Oregon on the road and a near miss against Stanford in triple-overtime.

Were it not for a head-scratching loss an Arizona State team that turned out to be mediocre at best, it's entirely possible we would have seen that dreaded split national championship, with USC claiming the AP title.

As the Trojans return to the world of bowl-eligible teams, you can bet that they are hungry to earn their first invite to the Pac-12 Championship Game before making a run at the Rose Bowl Game, or even a coveted trip to Miami in the second week of January.

But in order to do that, USC will have to prove that the past two seasons of reduced scholarships haven't hurt the recruitment process.

It should also be noted that while the postseason ban is over, USC still remains on probation with a reduction of 10 football scholarships through the 2013-14 season.

Will that affect USC's legendary depth moving forward?

Contender No. 1: Arkansas Razorbacks

Much to the disgust of many LSU and Alabama fans, we selected Arkansas as our “No. 1 Contender” for the 2012 BCS National Championship.

Not much has changed in a week to alter that opinion.

That being said, there's no reason to believe Arkansas is a lock for a title next year, either.

One of the more amazing things so far this offseason is the fact that we have yet to see a single early entrant to the 2012 NFL draft from Arkansas. While that still may change, it's getting late in the process for Alabama and LSU fans to hold out hope that any great talent drain will befall the Razorbacks before next season.

Additionally, stud running back Knile Davis is on track to return next season. The addition of Davis to a team that only lost last season to teams that participated in the BCS National Championship Game gives Hogs fans a great deal of optimism.

It looks as if all the pieces are falling into place for Arkansas. What could possibly give us pause?

This could be yet another case of a team undone by a very tough SEC schedule in 2012.

The Razorbacks took the predictable route for an SEC program when it came to scheduling non-conference opponents. Jacksonville State, Louisiana-Monroe and Tulsa aren't exactly the best Arkansas could have come up with, but that's what we're stuck with.

But the Hogs jump right into their SEC crucible with a September 15 visit from Alabama followed by a September 29 trip to newcomer Texas A&M.

The Razorbacks will be on the road for again on October 6 as they travel to Auburn. Arkansas will then have South Carolina and LSU in two of the last weeks of the season.

There's no reason Arkansas can't win all of those games. But in order to do that, the Hogs will have to shake off the heavy yolk of being relegated to second-tier status in the SEC year after year.

Rising up and knocking off teams like Alabama and LSU is much easier said that done.