Baltimore Orioles: Predicting Their Starting Lineup and Rotation for 2012

Whatever momentum the Baltimore Orioles generated in their dramatic, season-ending victory over Boston has been left to languish this offseason.

New general manager Dan Duquette could have cast a vote of confidence in the current core by making a hard run at free-agent first baseman Prince Fielder or decided to retool the roster through trade (Jeremy Guthrie and Adam Jones being the most likely to leave).

So far they've done neither, and what looked like a winter of great change has settled into an abiding sense of inertia.

On a positive note, that inaction has made projecting the Orioles' everyday lineup a far easier task than expected. Read on for best guesses and a helping of analysis.

1. Brian Roberts, 2B

Slotting Brian Roberts into the leadoff spot comes with generous portion of optimism.

Last week, doctors advised Roberts to skip FanFest because of lingering post-concussion symptoms. I'm not sure what stock, if any, to put in that development, though I'm certain it isn't good news.

There's a little voice inside of me hoping, wishing, praying that Roberts will return to Camden Yards in 2012 with his health intact. If he does, he'll earn the leadoff spot by way of veteran pull and past precedent.

Even at three-quarters strength, Roberts is an above-average option at second base and a serviceable bat atop the lineup. His recovery or lack thereof will go a long way toward determining the Orioles chances in 2012.

2. Nick Markakis, RF

"Batting second for your Baltimore Orioles, number 21, Nick Markakis..."

There's a profound sense of disappointment that comes with the above statement.

Not that hitting second is a bad thing, it's just that Nick Markakis seemed like he was headed for bigger things.

At 22, Markakis was already an above-average, everyday player in the major leagues.

At 23, he was .300 hitter with budding power.

At 24, he was 5-plus WAR player ensconced in the glow of All-Star selections to come.

Four years later, at 28, Nick Markakis is a good major-league hitter. And good would be fine, if it wasn't short of great.

To coat all things Markakis in a thick layer of failure would be unfair. Should he recover from abdominal surgery complication-free, Markakis is a safe bet for a .290 average and 12-20 home runs.

That's nice production out of the two-hole for the Orioles, just not the kind they once envisioned for their cornerstone outfielder.

3. Adam Jones, CF

I'm back and forth on whether Adam Jones will be a member of the Baltimore Orioles come Opening Day.

Recent rumblings say the Braves still want to trade for the talented center fielder, but those rumblings are short on specifics.

Considering the dearth of detail and the Orioles' general lack of movement this offseason, I'll keep Jones in this lineup for now and hitting third.

From a power standpoint, Jones belongs in the three-hole, coming off a career highs in home runs (25) and ISO (.185). I still have concerns about his low OBP and abysmal SO:BB ratio, neither of which shows signs of improvement, but Buck Showalter won't demote Jones because of those peripherals.

Maybe your nerdy neighbor Steve would, but Buck Showalter isn't your nerdy neighbor. That's both a metaphor and a stark reminder that Buck Showalter lives in a neighborhood way nicer than yours.

4. Matt Wieters, C

Matt Wieters took a big step toward fulfilling his potential last year, and the Orioles will push him toward those expectations by batting him fourth in 2012.

In 2011, Wieters flashed the power and defensive aplomb that once made him baseball's top prospect, posting career bests in home runs, OPS+ and ISO.

They were still well short of the insane metrics he posted during his sprint through the minor leagues, but there's renewed hope he may get there yet.

Hitting Wieters fourth places the expectation for continued growth squarely on his shoulders.

Best possible scenario: the Georgia Tech product takes the promotion in stride and begins the ascent into superstardom.

5. Mark Reynolds, 1B

Mark Reynolds did nifty work around the first base bag in 2011, and that's reason enough to keep him there in 2012.

Long a defensive liability at the hot corner, Reynolds is the rare player who might actually hold more value as a first baseman than a third baseman. He certainly has the power to keep pace with others at the position, and his defensive inadequacies shouldn't hurt the team as much when cushioned on the right side of the infield.

On offense, expect the usual from Reynolds: big swings, big misses, big flies, big everything. Reynolds is as safe a bet to hit 30 home runs as he is to lead the league in strikeouts.

6. J.J. Hardy, SS

J.J. Hardy could end up anywhere between first and seventh in his lineup, but for now I have him sixth.

Another low-OBP guy with mondo power, Hardy delivers tremendous value from the shortstop position. He needn't match his 30-HR output from a year ago to deliver on the three-year deal Baltimore gave him in 2011.

Another season in the 20- to 25-homer range would suffice, giving the top two-thirds of this lineup enviable depth and power potential.

7. Chris Davis, DH

With Luke Scott Tampa-bound, Chris Davis seems the most obvious replacement as an everyday DH in the Orioles lineup.

Spurts of past production coupled with an astounding minor league resume give Davis some intriguing potential. As of now, though, it's just potential.

Perhaps with some prolonged exposure, Davis can rediscover the stroke that once made him a top-100 prospect. If not, the Orioles might look to deal him or drop him before he hits arbitration eligibility in 2013.

8. Nolan Reimold, LF

2011 offered no definites in the curious case of Nolan Reimold.

With 13 home runs and a .781 OPS, he fell somewhere between the bizarro Reimold that scuffled through 2010 and his resplendent rookie self.

At 28, he has palpable breakout potential, but that comes with no guarantee the he stays in the lineup through May. So goes the pendulum swing on an inscrutable player who could step into a productive baseball prime in 2012 or exit the future plans for good.

9. Josh Bell, 3B

The fallout from Luke Scott's departure clears a path to the everyday lineup for 25-year-old third baseman Josh Bell.

Two hypotheticals could obstruct said path:

1.) The Orioles acquire a first baseman on the free-agent market, which moves Mark Reynolds back to third. And no, this isn't a veiled reference to Prince Fielder. Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman are just as likely to find themselves in orange and black at this juncture.

2.) The Orioles acquire a designated hitter on the free-agent market which pushes Chris Davis to the hot corner and keeps Bell in the minor leagues one more year.

If neither of those transpire, I like Bell to hold down third base in 2012. It gives the Orioles a chance to see what they have in a young player and removes the risk of Mark Reynolds killing someone with an errant throw.

Bell has a long way to go from his 2011 struggles (.164 average in 61 ABs), but the pedigree is there for something fantastic.

The Rotation

1. Jeremy Guthrie

2. Zach Britton

3. Jake Arrieta

4. Tsuyoshi Wada

5. Brian Matusz

What the Orioles lack in pitching star power they hope to make up for in depth. That means fierce competition for rotation spots through spring training and into the early part of the season.

Outside of Guthrie—assuming he's still an Oriole by April—none of the other four pitchers listed above are stone-cold locks for a starting gig.

Tommy Hunter, Dana Eveland, Wei-Yin Chen, Jim Johnson, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen and Alfredo Simon should each get varying degrees of consideration for the rotation, with Hunter, Eveland and Chen the most likely to displace Matusz in the fifth spot.

Tsuyoshi Wada also has plenty to prove in his first year stateside, but the Orioles investment in him suggests they see him as a starter first and a reliever only if the former falls through.