Texans vs. Ravens: Overconfident Ravens Must Be Wary of Trap Game

The Baltimore Ravens could be forgiven for expecting to win tomorrow’s divisional playoff game. They’ve already beaten the Texans once, they’re undefeated at home, and Houston is down to its third-string QB.

Make no mistake, though, Baltimore will need to bring its A game to advance to the AFC championship and a likely showdown with Tom Brady's Patriots. The Raven offense, hardly a juggernaut even on its home field, will have its hands full with the stalwart Houston defense.

Joe Flacco’s postseason struggles—four TDs vs. seven INTs for his career—have owed much to his never having started a home game in the playoffs. Even in Baltimore, though, Flacco will struggle to move the ball against Houston’s third-ranked pass defense.

Ray Rice won’t have it much easier, as the Texans are fourth in the NFL against the run. Unless Houston turnovers lead to defensive scores for the Ravens—always a possibility, but hardly certain—this game is looking to be a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.

In such a contest, Arian Foster and the Texans are well equipped to slug it out with anyone, even Rice and company. Foster just ripped the Bengals’ 10th-ranked rushing defense for 153 yards (50 above its average), so even the second-ranked run defense of Baltimore will have a tough time stopping him altogether.

Unless T.J. Yates implodes, this game should come right down to the wire. Considering that Yates has now had six starts to get the feel for the offense and has Andre Johnson back to help bail him out, having him fall apart entirely is hardly something the Ravens can count on.

Ultimately, home-field advantage plus superior quarterbacking from Flacco should be enough to give the Ravens the victory. A cakewalk, though, is not in the cards for Baltimore tomorrow.