New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers: Saints Won't Win

One thing you can say about San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith in 2011 is that he has protected the ball, especially at home. At home, the 49ers lead the NFL in turnover margin by nearly one a game. That's what's going to win Saturday's game versus the Saints. 

For New Orleans to win, they're going to need to find the form they had in 2009. Offensively, they're already at that level, if not better. Defensively, the Saints are not the team they were in 2009.

They don't get to the quarterback often enough, and don't force turnovers at anywhere near the same rate. That will keep them from enjoying the same success they enjoyed in 2009 and beating the 49ers. 

The Saints' offense won't overwhelm the 49ers' defense. As potent as it is, the offense has not been as strong away from New Orleans, certainly when they've had to play outdoors. The numbers don't lie. 

	Opponent	Points
Week 1	Green Bay Packers	34
Week 4	Jacksonville Jaguars	23
Week 5	Carolina Panthers	30
Week 6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20
Week 14	Tennessee Titans	22

Not one of those teams has the defense that the 49ers have. What that means is that New Orleans won't win with their offense like they did against the Lions. 

Their defense will have to carry the day for them, and that's not going to happen. The 49ers do not turn the ball over and have one of the best special teams units in the league. So, the field position battle will favor the 49ers in a big way. 

The Saints can bring pressure on Alex Smith all day long, and they will get sacks. But for that to lead them to victory, New Orleans will actually need to force turnovers. That's not going to happen. 

It's not that Drew Brees and company will be shut down completely. They'll move the ball, but not enough to consistently put points on the board and pressure the 49ers' offense.

In New Orleans, this would be a different story. But the game isn't in New Orleans. As a result, the Saints' season will come to an end on Saturday.

Prediction: 49ers 23, Saints 21.

Follow @mdixon1985