Roger Federer: Australian Open 2012 Will Open Fed-Ex's Eyes to Retirement

This is going to be a pretty huge year for Roger Federer. He's either going to prove that, at the age of 30 years young, he's still capable of competing with the best and the brightest in men's tennis, or it's going to become apparent that his time in the sun is a thing of the past.

I've already written that the odds are stacked against Federer reclaiming his former greatness at any point this year. He no longer has the luxury of youth, and it's going to be hard for him to outplay younger greats like Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

To his credit, Federer held his own against both of them in 2011, most notably beating Djokovic at the French Open. In all likelihood, Federer is going to come up against one or both of them at the Australian Open in the near future.

Spoiler Alert: Federer is not going to beat either of them.

I know, I know. That's a bold assumption. A stupid one, even. Federer may be older, but we don't yet know if he's officially over the hill. We also don't know if Djokovic is going to be as dominant this year as he was in 2011, nor do we know if Nadal is going to stay healthy enough to carve his way through the competition.

But if it's a question of relying on Djokovic and Nadal or relying on Federer, I'll gladly take the first option.

When (not if) Federer does come up short at the Australian Open, the reality check that began in 2011 will get another chapter. There will still be no denying that Federer is the greatest player that tennis has ever seen, but it will be just as impossible to deny that the end is near.

We're going to realize this, and Federer is going to realize it, too. He's a confident man and a fierce competitor, but he's not an idiot. Starting the year off in unspectacular fashion will make him aware of his fading star, and thoughts of his eventual retirement will start to creep into his head.

Relax. I'm not saying the dude is going to call it quits right then and there. He's going to keep playing, he's going to keep competing, and he's going to try to get Grand Slam No. 17 before the year is out.

But the odds of Federer actually getting No. 17 are not good. It's very rare for players to win Grand Slam tournaments after turning 30, and Federer is going to be 31 in no time.

So, despite the fact Federer's retirement is hardly imminent, it's really not that far off. Sooner or later, we're going to have to come to grips with that.

For that matter, so will he.