Saints vs. 49ers: Spread Info, Line, Predictions for 2012 NFC Divisional Playoff

In an NFC Divisional Playoff matchup of contrasting styles, the New Orleans Saints' high-powered offense will travel to the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco 49ers' dominant defense. 

The Saints overwhelmed Detroit last week in the Wild Card Round thanks to, who else, Drew Brees and his 466-yard, three touchdown performance. But he will likely find things a little more difficult this week.

The running game, which has gone largely unnoticed this season, looked great in that game. Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles and Chris Ivory make a great three-headed monster, and they will have to provide Brees with some support in this game to break through this defense. 

The 49ers are making their first playoff appearance since 2002. Jim Harbaugh worked wonders for this team in his first season. He figured out how to best utilize Alex Smith, and the addition of Carlos Rogers to the secondary made a world of difference for this defense. They won't be intimidated by Brees and the Saints offense. 

Where: Candlestick Park in San Francisco, CA

When: Saturday, Jan. 14 at 4:30 p.m. EDT

Watch: FOX

Spread: New Orleans (-4)

It's hard to fault the oddsmakers for making the Saints the favorite in this game. Both teams won 13 games, but the Saints have come into the playoffs on a roll. 

They have won nine consecutive games, including last week, and have scored at least 42 points in four straight. 

It would be a shock to see them keep that streak going against the 49ers, but they are the superior team and deserve to be favored despite playing on the road. 

Over/Under: 47.5

It is both a testament to the strength of the Saints offense and the 49ers defense that the spread is as high as it is. 

If the Saints were playing anyone else, the over/under would be significantly higher because their defense gives up a lot of points, though most of them come in garbage time in the fourth quarter. 

On the flip side, very few offenses are strong enough to make the oddsmakers consider putting an over/under that high against the 49ers defense. They have had some problems lately, giving up 44 combined points to Seattle and St. Louis. 

I think the over is more likely in this game. 

Key Injuries

According to the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Saints wide receiver Lance Moore participated in the team's light practice on Tuesday. The team did not offer any details about his status for this game because Sean Payton wasn't "required to."

Forty Niners tight end Delanie Walker, who has been a valuable contributor and safety net for Alex Smith, has been ruled out of this game with a fractured jaw, according to Comcast Sportsnet Bay Area. 

What Happens If They Win?

The NFC Championship Game awaits, though where it will be played is going to remain a mystery until the New York-Green Bay game on Sunday. 

Both teams face the same scenario in victory: If the Giants defeat the Packers, they will go to New Orleans or San Francisco. If Green Bay wins, the winner of this game will travel to Lambeau to take on the Packers. 

Keys to Saints Win

Attack the 49ers secondary and force Alex Smith to throw the ball. 

The one problem that the 49ers have had on defense this season is defending the pass. They rank 16th with nearly 231 yards allowed per game, though they did make up for that with 23 interceptions. 

If Brees is able to exploit that secondary, the Saints will be able to score at will. In doing so, he would force the 49ers to abandon their bread-and-butter, which is the running game, and tell Smith that he has to win a game with his arm. 

Keys to 49ers Win

Force turnovers, control the clock, get big plays on offense. 

The one weakness that Brees has had throughout his career is interceptions. He threw 14 this season, and eight of them came on the road. 

The 49ers have to create pressure up front, something they are perfectly capable of with Justin and Aldon Smith, who combined for 21.5 sacks this season, and force Brees to make mistakes. 

They have to limit the number of times that the Saints offense gets the ball, which means running Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter into the ground. 

Finally, they have to mix in some trick plays on offense to create big plays down the field with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. 

Prediction

This game is going to be close, but when push comes to shove you always take the better quarterback in the postseason. 

Saints 27, 49ers 23

Follow @adamwells1985