Fantasy Basketball Week 3: The Attack of the Unbalanced Schedule
Welcome to some sports coverage that has absolutely nothing to do with Tim Tebow. There's plenty of that out there already.
But I am thankful today. I am thankful for the NBA Lockout.
Seriously.
Every season, I desperately struggle through the first month of fantasy basketball due to the overlap with fantasy football (especially the playoffs). So the late start to the season was a positive for me.
But the late start (Christmas Day) and shortened schedule (66 games) has thrown an interesting monkey wrench into your fantasy basketball strategy: a very unbalanced schedule. For instance, there are teams in Week 3 who will play five games. There is also a team that will only play two games. Now that's what I call unbalanced.
In most leagues, you want to accumulate as many stats as possible. That means you want to have as many games played from your players as you can. More games = More statistics and more opportunities.
In daily leagues (where you can change you lineup every day) this really doesn't matter. But in weekly leagues (where you set your lineup once each week before play begins on Monday) it can make a huge difference.
Teams with 5 Games in Week 3
Charlotte Bobcats
Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors
Teams with 4 Games in Week 3
Atlanta Hawks
Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Lakers
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Jersey Nets
New Orleans Hornets
New York Knicks
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trailblazers
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
Teams with 3 Games in Week 3
Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers
Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Teams with 2 Games in Week 3
Orlando Magic
Now you don't want to go crazy. You don't bench LeBron for Thaddeus Young just because Young plays two extra games. But would it be crazy to start Spencer Hawes (5 games) over Dwight Howard (2 games)? Nope. Especially in a head-to-head league.
In points leagues, you will have more flexibility, but in category-based leagues you need to always remember to have all of your categories covered. Just blindly starting the player who plays more games won't always help you.
Another byproduct of the lockout has been the rash of injuries that the NBA has been struggling with so far. I know that I have two teams for which I drafted both Manu Ginobili and Zach Randolph. So I'm looking for some players to cover me, at least in the week-to-week short-term. So here are a few players who could be available in your league if you need a fill-in starter this week.
Guards
Brandon Knight (DET) - Knight is going to get more playing time sooner or later, and starter Rodney Stuckey is working his way through an injury. Stuckey is expected to at least miss Monday's game and Knight could grab more playing time going forward with a strong performance this week.
Lou Williams & Evan Turner (PHI) - The Sixers play five games this week and they have a fairly favorable schedule. Williams and Turner team with Thaddeus Young to provide scoring and a bit of everything for the Sixers off of the bench. All are well worth using this week, as these players actually play more than some starters.
Paul George (IND) - Somehow, George is still out there in some leagues and Danny Granger could miss a bit of time. George should be owned in all leagues, and he should be a nice start this week.
Marshon Brooks (NJ) - If you need scoring, Brooks is your man. The Nets are a lost team right now, but Brooks will be a beneficiary as he gets to shoot basically at will. Think what Nick Young did last year for the Wizards. Solid start this week and a good player to own longer-term.
Iman Shumpert (NYK) - It looks like Shumpert is going to start at PG for the Knicks. No matter what position, if he's playing 30 minutes a game, he should be owned in all leagues. Given his recent production, there's no reason not to start him this week.
Forwards
Tyrus Thomas (CHA) - It just seems like Thomas has been in every waiver wire column for the past million years. But he's back and his potential remains as tantalizing as ever. Especially in category leagues, since Thomas can do everything except hit three pointers. He probably should be owned in every league although it's almost a given you will end up cutting him sooner than later. He could have a nice week, though.
Thaddeus Young (PHI) - Much like Lou Williams and Evan Turner, Young plays big minutes off of the bench for the Sixers and he can help you in every category except three pointers. With five games this week, Young is an excellent start.
Tyler Hansbrough (IND) - Hansbrough is what he is. He will give you points, rebounds and about one steal a game. He's getting 28 minutes a game and he plays four games this week. The epitome of just collecting boring stats. But it's a necessary evil sometimes.
Matt Barnes (LAL) - This is probably just a "hot hand" situation. But Barnes has posted a couple of nice games for the Lakers recently. He's been a fantasy asset before and the Lakers really need somebody to step up at the 3. Barnes could be a sneaky play this week in deeper leagues.
Markieff Morris (PHO) - Morris has shown the ability to contribute in all categories and he's already playing more minutes than Channing Frye. If Morris is still out there in your league, scoop him up before somebody else beats you to the punch.
Marreese Speights (MEM) - Speights only plays three games this week and he will probably only help you in points and rebounds. But he could help you quite a bit in those categories over the two months Zach Randolph is out. Speights is a solid speculative pickup in all leagues, but he's probably not a great start in Week 3.
Centers
Byron Mullens (CHA) - Mullens is latest attempt by the Bobcats to plug the gaping hole they have in the middle. Over the last week, Mullens has averaged over 20 minutes a game, scored double-digit points and pulled down a handful of boards, with the occasional block. With five games this week, he can help you out if you're weak at center.
Ian Mahinmi (DAL) - As it's becoming increasingly obvious that Brendan Heywood is not the answer at center for the Mavericks, Mahinmi is seeing more playing time. In the past week, Mahinmi averaged over 20 minutes a game, eight points, seven rebounds and one block. With four games this week, Mahinmi could help you out and provide a bit of future upside.
With it being so early in the season, the waiver wire options will be fairly plentiful. The key is always to correctly determine which players are simply one-week plays, and which players could provide long-term value. My rule of thumb is to go with the player who has the easier path to the greatest amount of playing time.
At the end of the day, minutes played might be the most important category in fantasy basketball, even if you don't get credit for it on paper.
Good luck to everybody and your teams this week. If you have anything to add to the discussion or if you have any questions, please use the comments feature below. If you have any specific questions about players or your team, please provide as much detailed information (league format, scoring settings, etc.) as possible.
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