NFL Playoff Picture 2024-25: Bracket Clinching and Elimination Scenarios for Week 18

The 2024 NFL playoff race is centered around three games heading into Week 18 of the regular season.

Twelve of the 14 postseason spots have been filled, with only the NFC South winner and No. 7 seed in the AFC still to be determined. The NFC South champion will either be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Atlanta Falcons.

The Denver Broncos can lock up the final playoff spot in the AFC with a win over a Kansas City Chiefs team that figures to be resting many of its key starters. There is still a faint glimmer of hope for the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals to steal that spot.

The other big piece of business that will be settled is the top seed in the NFC between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. They will close out the regular season on Sunday Night Football, with the winner clinching the NFC North and a first-round bye.

Here are the updated playoff standings, as well as the clinching and elimination scenarios for teams going into the final week of the regular season.

Scenarios via NFL.com.

Team Standings

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 30: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions warms up before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on December 30, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

NFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. Detroit Lions (14-2; clinched playoff berth)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3; clinched NFC East)

3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6; clinched NFC West)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

Wild-Card Picture

5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2; clinched playoff berth)

6. Washington Commanders (11-5; clinched playoff berth)

7. Green Bay Packers (11-5; clinched playoff berth)

On the Bubble

9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

Eliminated

8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)

11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)

12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)

14. Chicago Bears (4-12)

15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)

16. New York Giants (3-13)

AFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1; clinched AFC West and home-field advantage)

2. Buffalo Bills (13-3; clinched AFC East)

3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5; clinched playoff berth)

4. Houston Texans (9-7; clinched AFC South)

Wild-Card Race

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6; clinched playoff berth)

6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6; clinched playoff berth)

7. Denver Broncos (9-7)

On the Bubble

8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)

9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

Eliminated

10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

11. New York Jets (4-12)

12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

14. Cleveland Browns (3-13)

15. Tennessee Titans (3-13)

16. New England Patriots (3-13)

Week 18 AFC Playoff Clinching Scenarios

AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 28: Bo Nix (10) of the Denver Broncos awaits the extra point call from head coach Sean Payton after hitting Marvin Mims Jr. (19) for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the Cincinnati Bengals' 30-24 win at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio on Saturday, December 28, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

Denver Broncos Clinch Playoff Berth

• win vs. Kansas City Chiefs 
• or losses/ties by the Miami Dolphins AND Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins Clinch Playoff Berth

• win vs. New York Jets AND Denver Broncos loss

Cincinnati Bengals Clinch Playoff Berth

• win vs. Pittsburgh Steelers AND losses/ties by the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens Clinch AFC North

• win or tie vs. Cleveland Browns
• or Pittsburgh Steelers loss/tie

Pittsburgh Steelers Clinch AFC North

• win vs. Cincinnati Bengals AND Baltimore Ravens loss

The Broncos missed their chance to take away any Week 18 drama with their 30-24 overtime loss to the Bengals on Saturday. A victory would have secured a playoff berth, allowing them to rest any starters they wanted to for the final game.

Denver does catch a break with the Chiefs having locked up the top seed in the AFC, so it would seem unlikely that Patrick Mahomes will be playing on Sunday. Carson Wentz could play spoiler for the Chiefs, assuming he gets the start for Kansas City.

Even though the Bengals have the aura of the team no one wants to play because of how potent their offense is, they have the hardest path to make the field of the three AFC teams still vying for the final spot because they need a win and losses by the Broncos and Miami Dolphins.

Miami has hung around the playoff race even though no one seems to want to talk about this team. It has been easy to forget the Dolphins are still in the playoff mix because of how odd their season been, but they have a better chance to get in than the Bengals as things stand right now.

The other race remaining in the AFC will determine the North division champion between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens get in with either a win or tie against the Cleveland Browns, but they could also make it if the Steelers don't beat the Bengals.

Cincinnati could catch a break because its game against the the Steelers comes after the Ravens and Browns kickoff the weekend schedule at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. If the Ravens win, Pittsburgh is locked in as the No. 6 seed and could rest its starters or at least limit their availability.

Week 18 NFC Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 29: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prepares to throw during the first half of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on December 29, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Atlanta Falcons Clinch NFC South

• win vs. Carolina Panthers AND Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Clinch NFC South

• win vs. New Orleans Saints
• or Atlanta Falcons loss

Detroit Lions Clinch NFC No. 1 Seed and First-Round Bye

• win or tie vs. Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings Clinch NFC No. 1 Seed and First-Round Bye

• win vs. Detroit Lions

The only playoff spot still up in the air in the NFC is the South division champion. After having a four game advantage in the division at one point, the Atlanta Falcons find themselves needing a win and help to make the playoffs.

Atlanta has limped to the finish line with five losses in its last seven games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won five of their last six games, with the offense putting up at least 40 points twice in the past three weeks.

A Bucs win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 18 or a Falcons loss will send Tampa to the playoffs for the fifth straight year. The Falcons need a victory over the Carolina Panthers combined with a Bucs loss to make their first playoff appearance since 2017.

The NFL is saving the biggest game for last, with the Vikings-Lions showdown at Ford Field set to be the final Sunday night game of the regular season.

Even though the game is being played in Detroit, it's hard not to like the Vikings right now just because of the state of the Lions defense. They have allowed 32.5 points per game over the past four weeks, but they are 3-1 in that span because the offense is averaging 37.5 points during this span.

The Vikings look like the more complete team at this point and have won nine straight games. They are one of only three teams currently in the playoff field that ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in scoring offense and defense.

If the Lions beat the Vikings, they will be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs for the first time since NFL began basing home-field advantage on regular-season records in 1975. It will also mark their first time winning consecutive division titles since a run of three straight NFL West titles from 1952 to '54.