Week 18 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 17 Results
We've done it, football fans. We've reached the final week of the NFL regular season. While not every Week 18 contest will be meaningful, there is still a great deal of playoff positioning to be determined.
Three divisions—the AFC North, NFC North and NFC South—have yet to be won. The No. 1 seed in the NFC is also up for grabs, along with two playoff spots. Teams are also battling for draft positioning, though, it's clear that not every franchise is angling for the No. 1 pick.
The New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders were all in the mix for the No. 1 selection and won in Week 17.
How might things unfold in the final week of the regular season? Let's take a look at some enticing early odds and make a few predictions.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Bengals -1.5 at Steelers
1 of 3
The Cincinnati Bengals have rounded into form over the last month. After four straight wins, Cincinnati is mathematically alive in the playoff race.
The Bengals need help in the form of losses by both the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins. However, they must first defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Saturday's second game. Cincinnati will have plenty to play for, while the Steelers may not.
If the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns in Saturday's early game, Baltimore will secure the AFC North title. That could lead to the Steelers resting starters, though head coach Mike Tomlin doesn't anticipate that strategy.
"I doubt I'll be in that mentality," Tomlin said, per Dave Clark of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Even if the Steelers don't rest anyone, Cincinnati has a great opportunity to win. Its defense has finally started to gel, and Joe Burrow is wrapping an MVP-caliber season. Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson, meanwhile, has started to stumble, and the Bengals have been playing like a better overall team.
Expect the Bengals to end the year on a five-game winning streak, while Pittsburgh enters the postseason on a four-game skid.
Commanders -4 at Cowboys
2 of 3
The Washington Commanders cannot win the NFC East, but Sunday's overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons did hand them a postseason berth. In Week 18, Washington will be eager to earn the top wild-card spot possible.
"We recognize having a sixth seed and going into the playoffs with that is a good thing. So, we're going to fight like hell to keep that," head coach Dan Quinn told reporters on Monday.
The Commanders can't advance to the No. 5 seed, but they can secure the sixth seed with a win over the rival Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Expect them to get it in fairly convincing fashion.
Dallas has battled late in the year despite being out of playoff contention. When shut down star receiver CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) for the remainder of the season, it took away the offense's biggest threat.
With Lamb out, Cooper Rush played like a backup quarterback in Week 17, and the Cowboys mustered a mere seven points against the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas' defense, meanwhile, was repeatedly gashed by backup QBs Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee.
While this game might not be as lopsided as Dallas' 41-7 defeat in Week 17, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are likely to roll to a decisive win.
Buccaneers -13.5 Versus Saints
3 of 3
Washington's win over Atlanta also returned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the top of the NFC South standings. With a win over the New Orleans Saints, Tampa will be in the postseason and will host a playoff game.
Naturally, the Bucs will be firmly focused on getting the win, and the oddsmakers suggest that they'll win big.
They should. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, and Tampa has found an explosive and dynamic running game led by rookie Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers just dropped 48 points on the Carolina Panthers, and New Orleans is unlikely to provide much more resistance.
The Saints, who have lost back-to-back games by double digits, are clearly just playing out the string. While they may try hard to spoil things for Tampa, it's hard to envision the Saints actually doing it.
New Orleans' defense, ranking 30th overall, struggled to slow the Bucs in the first meeting—a 51-27 Tampa Bay victory.
Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are all trying to return from injury for the Saints' finale. If they can't, this line could grow substantially.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
