NFL Playoff Picture 2024: Scenarios, Standings and Bracket Predictions Before Week 17
Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season opened Wednesday and has already impacted the playoff picture.
First, the Kansas City Chiefs secured the AFC's top seed with their 29-10 thrashing of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then, the Baltimore Ravens throttled the Houston Texans by a 31-2 count to move one step closer to locking up the AFC North.
Plenty more will be decided during the coming days of this busy NFL slate, so let's dissect the latest standings and see what else is on the line during this schedule which features contests on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
AFC Standings
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AFC Playoff Standings
Division Leaders
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1; clinched AFC West and No. 1 seed)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3; clinched AFC East)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5; lead AFC North, clinched playoff berth)
4. Houston Texans (9-7; clinched AFC South)
Wild Card Race
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, clinched playoff berth)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
If the Bills find their way past the Jets on Sunday, then Josh Allen's club will lock down its position right behind Patrick Mahomes' squad. Should Buffalo fall short, though, then the race for the No. 2 seed might still be worth watching.
Three consecutive wins have positioned Baltimore for some potential late-season thievery. The Ravens already swiped the division lead away from the Steelers and, thanks to a head-to-head win in Week 4, they could still sneak past the Bills with a home win over the Browns and Buffalo losses to New York and New England.
With the Texans locked into the No. 4 seed, the drama doesn't pick back up until the final two Wild Card spots. And even then, drama is a relative term.
The Chargers and Broncos both control their own destinies. A Saturday win over New England would punch L.A.'s playoff ticket. The Chargers would also be playoff-bound if the Colts and Dolphins both lose. Denver could secure its own playoff spot with a Saturday win over Cincinnati.
In other words, fans of the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals probably shouldn't hold their breath. Beyond needing their respective teams to win out, they also need back-to-back losses by the Chargers and Broncos. After New England, L.A. closes out against Las Vegas. After Cincinnati, Denver finishes against a Kansas City team with nothing to play for.
It feels more likely than not, then, that we already know not only which seven AFC teams will reach the playoffs but also the order in which they'll be seeded. A bit of movement remains possible, but our crystal ball likes the current order as the one that will carry over into the postseason.
NFC Standings
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NFC Playoff Standings
1. Detroit Lions (13-2; lead NFC North; clinched playoff berth)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3; lead NFC East; clinched playoff berth)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6; lead NFC West)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7; lead NFC South)
Wild Card Race
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, clinched playoff berth)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, clinched playoff berth)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
The Lions and Vikings could be headed for a photo finish in their fight for the NFC North crown—and the No. 1 seed that looks increasingly likely to come along with it. The Eagles are technically still in the mix for the top spot, too, but they need back-to-back wins over the Cowboys and Giants coupled with two Lions' losses and a Vikings' loss to the Packers on Sunday to make that happen.
This is almost certainly down to the Lions and Vikings in other words, and those clubs just so happen to square off in Detroit in Week 18. That contest could be for all the proverbial marbles, so long as Minnesota handles Green Bay on Sunday and Detroit downs San Francisco the following night. If the Lions win and the Vikings lose, Detroit could have the No. 1 seed in hand by the end of the Week 17 slate.
The Commanders could clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win over the Falcons or a Buccaneers loss to the frisky-of-late Panthers. Washington could even still make a run at the NFC East crown, but it would take a pair of wins plus a pair of Philadelphia losses to make that happen.
If the Seahawks fall to the Bears on Thursday, then a Rams win over the Cardinals on Saturday would give L.A. the NFC West title. The Falcons have the same path to an NFC South title as a win over the Commanders and a Buccaneers loss to the Panthers would clinch the division for Atlanta. Should this fight carry over into Week 18, Tampa hosts New Orleans while Atlanta hosts Carolina.
Our crystal ball isn't calling for much movement with this bracket, but it does like the Buccaneers chances of finding their way around a Falcons team that recently made a performance-based quarterback change away from veteran Kirk Cousins and to rookie Michael Penix Jr., who had five career pass attempts before making his first start on Sunday.
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