NFL Playoff Picture 2024-25: Bracket Clinching and Elimination Scenarios for Week 17
Heading into the final two weeks of the 2024 NFL regular season, six of the 14 playoff spots across both conferences remain up for grabs. Five of those spots could be locked up by the end of Week 17.
Here are the updated playoff standings, along with the clinching and elimination scenarios for teams in Week 17.
Week 16 brought some potential clarity to the top of the postseason field. The Kansas City Chiefs are one win or a loss by the Buffalo Bills away from securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the third time since 2018.
Sunday's loss by the Philadelphia Eagles means the most-likely No. 1 seed in the NFC will be either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings. The NFC North is responsible for three of the four playoff spots already locked up in the conference.
This article will be updated soon to provide more information and analysis.
Team Standings
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NFC Standings
Division Leaders
1. Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North; clinched playoff berth)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East; clinched playoff berth)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6, NFC West)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South)
Wild Card
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2; clinched playoff berth)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4; clinched playoff berth)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
On the Bubble
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
AFC Standings
Division Leaders
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, clinched AFC West)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, clinched AFC East)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, AFC North; clinched playoff berth)
4. Houston Texans (9-6, clinched AFC South)
Wild Card
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5; clinched playoff berth)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
On the Bubble
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Week 17 Playoff Clinching Scenarios
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Detroit Lions Clinch NFC North, NFC No. 1 seed and Home-Field Advantage
- win vs. San Francisco 49ers AND Minnesota Vikings loss vs. Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles Clinch NFC East
- win/tie vs. Dallas Cowboys
- or Washington Commanders loss/tie vs. Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Rams Clinch NFC West Scenarios
- win vs. Arizona Cardinals AND Seattle Seahawks loss/tie vs. Chicago Bears
- win vs. Arizona Cardinals AND any combination of at least 3.5 wins by Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns
- tie vs. Arizona Cardinals AND Seattle Seahawks loss vs. Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons Clinch NFC South
- win vs. Washington Commanders AND Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss vs. Carolina Panthers
Washington Commanders Clinch Playoff Berth
- win/tie vs. Atlanta Falcons
- or Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss/tie vs. Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs Clinch AFC No. 1 seed and Home-Field Advantage
- win/tie vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- or Buffalo Bills loss/tie vs. New York Jets
Los Angeles Chargers Clinch Playoff Berth
- win/tie vs. New England Patriots
- or Indianapolis Colts loss/tie vs. New York Giants AND Miami Dolphins loss/tie vs. Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos Clinch Playoff Berth
- win/tie vs. Cincinnati Bengals
When it once seemed like the NFC West would come down to the Week 18 matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium has dramatically swung in favor of the Rams.
Having won three straight games combined with the Seahawks losing their last two games, the Rams could win the division for the first time since their Super Bowl-winning season in 2021 with a victory over the Cardinals and a Seattle loss to the Chicago Bears.
There are other more complicated scenarios for the Rams to win the division involving strength of victory that would involve several teams needing to win, but the simplest one is if they take care of their own business and the Seahawks stumble yet again.
The Week 18 game that could have the most at stake involves the Vikings and Lions at Ford Field. It could be rendered moot, though, because Detroit has a winnable game this week against a 49ers team hobbling to the finish line and Minnesota has to host the Green Bay Packers.
Despite having their division title hopes delayed on Sunday, the Eagles are still on the brink of winning the NFC East with a win in either of their final two games or a loss by the Commanders.
Michael Penix's successful debut for the Atlanta Falcons combined with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers failing to take care of business against the Dallas Cowboys has Atlanta back in the driver seat for the NFC South.
The Falcons have a tough game against the Commanders they have to win and a Bucs loss to the Carolina Panthers to earn their first trip to the playoffs since 2017.
On the AFC side, the entire field could be set as soon as Sunday. The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos are close to locks, with their only chance of missing out being if they lose out over the final two weeks and at least one of the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals winning out.
Week 17 Elimination Scenarios
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NFC Elimination Scenarios
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- loss vs. Carolina Panthers AND Atlanta Falcons win vs. Washington Commanders
The Bucs have been a difficult team to figure out this season. They started strong with a 4-2 record, lost their next four games going into the bye, then returned in Week 12 to start a four-game winning streak before Sunday's loss to the Cowboys.
In the midst of that four-game losing streak was two losses to the Falcons, leaving them at risk of losing the division if the two teams end up tied in the standings. Atlanta moved back into the driver seat thanks to a 34-7 win over the Giants on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks
- loss vs. Chicago Bears AND Los Angeles Rams win/tie vs. Arizona Cardinals
- tie vs. Chicago Bears AND Los Angeles Rams win vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Los Angeles Rams win vs. Arizona Cardinals AND any combination of at least four wins by the Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns
The Seahawks are another team that went on a four-game winning streak coming out of their bye before running into a road block the past two weeks. The schedule-makers didn't do them any favors with back-to-back games against the Packers and Vikings, but they had an opportunity to beat Minnesota on Sunday before Justin Jefferson's go-ahead touchdown catch with under four minutes to play.
There's still a very good chance the Seahawks and Rams meet in Los Angeles for the NFC West title in Week 18, but they could find themselves on the outside looking in if they stumble on Thursday against the Chicago Bears and a Rams win on Saturday night.
AFC Elimination Scenarios
Indianapolis Colts
- loss/tie vs. New York Giants
- or Los Angeles Chargers win/tie vs. New England Patriots AND Denver Broncos win/tie vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins
- loss/tie vs. Cleveland Browns
- or Los Angeles Chargers win/tie vs. New England Patriots AND Denver Broncos win/tie vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals
- loss/tie vs. Denver Broncos
Rather than single these three teams out, it's much easier to lump the discussion together because their fates are all intertwined.
The most important game is on Saturday with the Bengals hosting the Denver Broncos. A Denver win ends any suspense because the Broncos will be in the playoffs for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in the 2015 season.
If the Bengals win that game, their playoff hopes will remain alive until the final week of the regular season. The Colts and Dolphins would both have to win on Sunday in order to have something to play for in Week 18.
The schedule sets up nicely for the Colts to potentially play spoiler if the Broncos lose this week. Their final two games are against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined record of 5-25.
If the Chiefs lock up the No. 1 seed this week, the Broncos will likely be playing a lot of Kansas City's backups in their Week 18 matchup at Empower Field.
On the chance that both the Chargers and Broncos lose out, the Colts and Dolphins would both make the playoffs by winning one of their final two games. The Bengals would get in if they win out, the Chargers and Broncos lose out and the Dolphins and Colts lose at least one game.
Even though that scenario is extremely unlikely, it does speak well of the Bengals that they could still be in playoff contention going into Week 18 considering most analysts were eulogizing them after falling to 4-8 following a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13.
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