Week 16 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups
Week 16 got underway with Thursday night's AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. The two rivals were battling for positioning ahead of the NFL playoffs. Fantasy managers, meanwhile, are looking to stay alive in their own postseasons.
While there are no more bye weeks to navigate in the 2024 season, managers must still contend with injuries, unfavorable matchups and tough lineup decisions.
Here, you'll find a look at look at some of the toughest matchups remaining in Week 16, along with start-sit advice based on past performances, player health and projected roles.
All picks and analysis are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Start: Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
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The Cleveland Browns defense has been one of the NFL's bigger disappointments this season, but it has started to tighten up against the run a bit. Cleveland ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed and has surrendered the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Of course, Cleveland's fantasy ranking has a lot to do with opposing quarterbacks frequently eviscerating its secondary and opposing offenses using a pass-first approach. Even if the Cincinnati Bengals do the same in Week 16, Chase Brown is a must-start.
Brown has become a focal point in an offense that also features Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
"He's been unbelievable, he really has. It's exciting to see him come along like that. He's going to play here for a long time," Burrow said, per the team's official website.
Brown has caught no fewer than three passes while topping 100 scrimmage yards in each of his past four games—he's also scored four touchdowns during that span. That trend should continue in Week 16.
The Browns are set to start third-string quarterback Doran Thompson-Robinson. Cincinnati may well put this one to bed early and lean on Brown to close out the game.
Sit: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Managers who hung onto Isiah Pacheco during his two-month absence with a broken leg may still have a chance to be rewarded in the postseason. However, this is not a great week to bank on the Kansas City Chiefs' ball-carrier.
During Pacheco's recovery, Kansas City added Kareem Hunt, who thrived as a bruising runner. Kansas City now utilizes a full-on committee approach, with Semaje Perine getting plenty of work as well.
In his three games since returning, Pacheco has tallied a combined four receptions, 157 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns. He hasn't played more than 47 percent of the offensive snaps in any of those games, according to Pro Football Reference.
Pacheco also doesn't appear to be running at pre-injury form yet, which means a sudden jump in snaps is unlikely.
This week, the Chiefs will host the Houston Texans, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Patrick Mahomes is also dealing with an ankle sprain, which could hurt Pacheco's ceiling.
Kansas City may take a run-heavy approach, but the Texans are also likely to blitz frequently, clamp down on the run and force Mahomes to beat them on the move.
Start: Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
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While the list of players who are truly "matchup-proof" is short, Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua is on it. Since returning from a knee injury in late October, he's had exactly one disappointing outing—though that was a painful one for fantasy managers.
Nacua caught just a single pass for 11 yards during L.A.'s overtime win over the Seattle Seahawks.
Managers shouldn't be too concerned about Nacua repeating that performance, though. In the six games since, he's topped 100 yards four times. His stat lines in the other two games: 9 catches for 98 yards and five catches for 56 yards and a touchdown.
The New York Jets will present a difficult matchup, as they've surrendered the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. However, Nacua's target share makes it highly unlikely that he'll bust.
The second-year star has been targeted an average of roughly 11 times per game over his last four.
And while New York can be quite good against opposing receivers, they can also struggle against true No. 1 targets. Over the Jets' last two games, they surrendered 10 catches to both Tyreek Hill and Brian Thomas Jr. while allowing each of them to find the end zone.
Nacua undoubtedly carried many managers to the postseason. There's no reason to abandon him now.
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Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
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It does appear that Mahomes will be under center for the Chiefs, despite being banged-up and on a short week.
"He worked out this week, full," head coach Andy Reid said at his press conference. "We'll most likely end up playing him."
However, that doesn't mean that managers should trust wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins against Houston. The 32-year-old has been an asset since arriving in Kansas City, but his lack of consistency hasn't been good for fantasy managers.
Hopkins topped 10 fantasy points in Weeks 12, 13 and 14 but failed to reach double digits in Weeks 10, 11 and 15. His PPR floor should prevent him from being an outright bust—Hopkins caught at least four passes in each of his last four outings—but managers should avoid risk-reward plays at this point in the year.
As previously noted, Mahomes' injury could lead to a run-heavy approach. That might not be enough to make Pacheco a quality start, but it could outright tank Hopkins' value. On top of that, Kansas City is has activated receiver Marquise Brown, and he's expected to make his 2024 debut on Saturday, which may hurt Hopkins' value further.
As a team, the Texans haven't been very good against opposing pass-catchers (seventh-most fantasy points allowed), but Hopkins could see a heavy dose of star corner Derek Stingley Jr.—who has allowed an opposing passer rating of only 46.4 in coverage, according to Pro Football Reference.
*Fantasy scoring information via FantasyPros
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