Week 15 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
In a season filled with wild finishes, Week 14 still found ways to surprise. The Detroit Lions opened the week with a gutsy fourth-down call and walk-off field goal. The Cincinnati Bengals ended the week by recovering their own blocked punt and then immediately hitting a go-ahead touchdown pass.
Week 14 wasn't necessarily filled with monumental upsets, though there were several close calls—and the underdog Los Angeles Rams did outlast the Buffalo Bills in an offensive track meet.
Week 15 is likely to bring even more unpredictability to the proverbial table. Fans looking to avoid wacky finishes and stick Vegas lines may want to consider a few box-score bets instead.
While most player props won't be available until later in the week, we've identified a few box-score best to consider, based on the early Week 15 lines.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brock Purdy Over 242.5 Passing Yards
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One prop we like involves San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who is -120 (bet $120 to win $100) to hit the over on passing yards against the Rams.
While Los Angeles outlasted the Bills on Sunday, its secondary did little to slow Josh Allen and Buffalo's passing attack. In fact, pass defense has been one of the Rams' biggest liabilities all season.
The Rams rank 31st in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
That's one reason to like the over for Purdy. The other is the fact that San Francisco is running out of ball carriers. Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are already on injured reserve. Now, rookie Isaac Guerendo is dealing with a foot sprain.
"We'll evaluate him over the next few days and see if he's got a shot (for Thursday)," 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said of Guerendo, per team reporter Lindsey Pallares.
Purdy threw for 325 yards against the Chicago Bears in Week 14, and San Francisco may have to take a pass-heavy approach against the Rams.
Jauan Jennings Over 5.5 Receptions
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Because San Francisco may need to go pass-heavy against L.A., we also like the over for wideout Jauan Jennings at +105 (bet $100 to win $105).
When the 49ers lost standout receiver Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending knee injury, most assumed that Deebo Samuel would become the new No. 1 target, while rookie Ricky Pearsall would step into a prominent role. However, Jennings and tight end George Kittle have been the two biggest beneficiaries statistically.
The passing game usually flows through Kittle, but Jennings has become Purdy's favorite target on the perimeter. Against Chicago last week, the 27-year-old caught seven of eight targets for 90 yards and two touchdowns.
Given the Rams' struggles against opposing receivers, Jennings has a great chance to tally six or more receptions on Thursday night. It's a fairly high line, but Jennings has caught at least five passes in four of his last five games.
Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions
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The Rams will likely look to lean on Kyren Williams, Blake Corum and their ground game on Thursday. Slowing down the game should help protect their defense, and the 49ers have been susceptible to the run at times.
San Francisco ranks 11th in yards per carry allowed but has surrendered 19 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Still, we have to back the receptions over (+115) for wideout Puka Nacua.
Matthew Stafford tends to feed the football to both Nacua and Cooper Kupp, with Nacua being the primary target. While the 49ers will undoubtedly look to contain those two, Nacua is virtually impossible to stop altogether.
The second-year receiver caught 12 of 14 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown against the Bills on Sunday. He's also caught at least seven passes in four of his last five games and has caught nine or more passes in three of those.
Steelers and Eagles Under 42.5 Points
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The Philadelphia Eagles might be the most complete team in football, but that hasn't stopped them from having some issues in 2024. Specifically, they've struggled to get things going in the passing game recently.
"It's no secret that we weren't up to our standard in that area yesterday," head coach Nick Sirianni told reporters after last week's 22-16 win over the Carolina Panthers.
Philly is unlikely to get things rolling against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense ranked ninth in net yards per pass attempt allowed. Leaning on Saquon Barkley and the ground game could also prove difficult, as the Steelers rank sixth in yards per carry allowed.
Barkley, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and the rest of the offense may still find ways to move the ball—the lowly Cleveland Browns tallied 300 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 13—but points should be hard to find.
The Steelers may also struggle to put points on the board against Philadelphia's top-ranked defense.
This is a low over/under for total points (-110), considering how talented these two title contenders are. However, this has all the makings of a classic defensive battle.
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