Week 15 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 14 Results
Week 14 was another wild one. While the week wasn't loaded with outright upsets, we did see several surprisingly close finishes.
The Kansas City Chiefs won on a last-second field goal—again—to clinch the AFC West. The Philadelphia Eagles punched their playoff ticket, only by outlasting the pesky Carolina Panthers.
The Los Angeles Rams did pull off an upset, beating the Buffalo Bills in a 44-42 offensive track meet that might just be the game of the year.
Week 15 is sure to bring more excitement and uncertainty, and a few games should already draw interest based on the early lines.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Houston Texans -3 Versus Miami Dolphins
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The Miami Dolphins are trying to claw their way into the playoff picture and have won four of their last five. However, Miami's defense has appeared suspect over the last two weeks and nearly blew a Week 14 game against the rudderless New York Jets.
The Jets, who rank 25th in scoring, dropped 26 points in Sunday's overtime loss, their second-highest output of the season.
Miami will now travel to face the Houston Texans, who are coming out of a much-needed bye. The Texans haven't been as consistent as they were a year ago, and injuries and some unexpectedly shaky play by C.J. Stroud have been the primary issues.
With a week to rest and reset, though, Houston should be ready to make a strong playoff push over the final month.
Houston's fifth-ranked defense should be able to slow Miami, while the Texans should be able to chip away with Joe Mixon and the ground game. A few big plays from Stroud and Nico Collins should be enough to give Houston a field-goal victory in one of the more exciting matchups of Week 15.
Baltimore Ravens -14.5 at New York Giants
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Let's be honest. This is an absurd line for an NFL game. Given the matchup, though, it may not be large enough.
The New York Giants have been one of the NFL's worst teams this season, and they may now be more interested in improving their draft position than picking up meaningless wins. Even if New York shows fight in this contest, it's hard to envision Drew Lock, Malik Nabers and Tyron Tracy Jr. keeping pace with the Baltimore Ravens.
Nabers and Tracy have been terrific this season, but Lock is a middling bridge quarterback at best. While Baltimore's defense has been atrocious against the pass, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry helm one of the league's most dynamic offenses.
The Ravens are also coming out of the bye with something to prove after their Week 13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
"He kind of had the feeling of, 'I hate that we have a bye week, because I want to play next week to get this off my chest,' type of feeling," Ravens quarterbacks coach Tee Martin said, per Jon Alfano of SI.com.
Expect Jackson and Henry to go off against New York's 29th-ranked run defense, ultimately winning by multiple touchdowns.
Washington Commanders -7.5 at New Orleans Saints
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During the Washington Commanders' three-game losing streak, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the offense appeared to be in a slump. However, they rediscovered their rhythm during a 42-19 blowout of the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 before heading to last week's bye.
Now fully rested, the Commanders are poised to deliver another convincing victory. The New Orleans Saints have been more competitive under interim coach Darren Rizzi, but their defense is still a massive liability.
The Saints ranked dead-last in yards per carry allowed, 22nd in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 30th in yards allowed. Slowing Daniels will be a monumental challenge, and it's not the only one New Orleans is set to face.
According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Saints quarterback Derek Carr is feared to have broken his left hand, meaning Jake Haener is probably in line to start for New Orleans.
Spencer Rattler started three games earlier this season while Carr was sidelined, and New Orleans lost all three by a combined 110-45 margin. Haener might be an upgrade over Rattler, but with Carr out of the lineup, it's hard to envision the Saints keeping pace in this one.
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