UFC 310: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
The UFC's final pay-per-view of each year is usually pretty stacked, and this Saturday's UFC 310 card in Las Vegas is no exception.
UFC 310 will be headlined by a flyweight title fight, with increasingly impressive champion Alexandre Pantoja defending his title against a newcomer in Kai Asakura, a fearsome knockout artist plucked from Japan's RIZIN Fighting Federation.
The co-main event will be contested at welterweight, where undefeated contenders Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry will meet in what is clearly a No. 1 contender fight.
Earlier on the main card, we'll get a heavyweight fight with similar stakes, as France's Ciryl Gane and Russia's Alexander Volkov look to establish themselves as top contenders in the division in an intriguing sequel to a 2021 fight, which the Frenchman won by decision.
The main card will be kicked off by a pair of featherweight fights. First up, Nate Landwehr will meet Choi Doo-ho in a matchup that looks like a frontrunner for Fight of the Night honors. Next, Bryce Mitchell will look to get back to winning ways against the long-absent Kron Gracie in a clash of submission specialists.
Keep scrolling to see how the B/R combat sports squad sees the stacked UFC 310 main card playing out this Saturday.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
1 of 5
Nick Akerman: What an opportunity this is for Kai Asakura. The UFC newcomer goes straight in with a flyweight title shot that could put his name on the map for an audience who may not be overly familiar with his terrific resume in Rizin. He's a brutal fighter who has racked up 13 knockouts in his 21 wins, although it must be said, his iconic soccer kick finishes aren't legal in the octagon.
Alexandre Pantoja is undoubtedly the biggest test of Asakura's career. His rip through the 125-pound division likely played a part in this matchup being made, with Dana White no longer willing to give him Brandon Moreno or Brandon Royval to snuff out.
"The Cannibal" has been forced to rely on his excellent grappling work after some less-than-exciting striking performances. He should look to ragdoll Asakura, but he must be careful of his entry on the takedown, as his opponent has multiple finishes set up from massive knees to those who try to grab him.
A slightly plain (but excellent) UFC veteran against an exciting new fighter is the type of booking that can tend to slow down the hype of the debutant as this level is so much higher. Asakura can rock Pantoja but the champion will use his skills of nullification to work him to the ground and get a stoppage.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Rd. 3.
Haris Kruskic: Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his UFC flyweight championship for the third time against promotion newcomer Kai Asakura.
A lot of heads turned when the UFC announced the former two-time RIZIN champion as Pantoja's next challenger. He possesses huge knockout power and hopes to become the first Japanese champ in UFC history.
I just think Pantoja will outclass Asakura. He's the best flyweight champ since Demetrious Johnson and is too well-rounded to lose here. "The Cannibal" continues building his legacy.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: I always enjoyed watching Kai Asakura knock people's heads into the bleachers in Japan, and I can't wait to see what he can do in the UFC. That said, his fight with Alexandre Pantoja is the toughest of his career to date outside of his two scraps with Kyoji Horiguchi. He's got his work cut out for him.
It might be an oversimplification, but in my mind, the outcome of this fight really comes down to Asakura's ability to keep the action on the feet, and Pantoja's ability to withstand his challenger's power while they're standing.
If Pantoja can take the fight to the mat and keep it there, he should win handily. I don't think Asakura is a terrible grappler, but he's not on the champ's level in that department. If Asakura can keep it standing, though, all bets are off. Pantoja's chin has held up very well so far, but I don't think anyone in the division can eat a clean shot from the former RIZIN champ. Just look what he did to poor Ulka Sasaki's jaw.
I'm not confident, but I see Asakura rising to the occasion and making history as Japan's first UFC champ.
Prediction: Asakura by KO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Maybe it's me, but I'm just not as sold on Pantoja as others. He's certainly a worthy champion and he's proven that fact but I'm not seeing anything impenetrable. Asakura may not be a Hall of Famer either, but I feel like he's got the right skill set to make a big-time debut and walk out with a belt.
Prediction: Asakura by KO, Rd. 2
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry
2 of 5
Nick Akerman: Not all unbeaten fighters are created equal. Shavkat Rakhmonov's fights are rarely easy on the eye, but he's incredibly suffocating and likely the next great champion. Five of his six UFC wins have ended in him choking the life out of his opponents, so let's add one more of those to his record this weekend.
Like all of Nomad's fights, Ian Garry needs to stay out of range and stop the takedown. If he doesn't, it's game over. As simple as that.
Rakhmonov is hittable on entry and does take risks in order to find himself a dominant position. We saw him fearlessly box his way into the Stephen Thompson fight, a man whose career-long use of range has kept him largely elusive until recently. This will be Garry's window to win the fight if he's going to be afforded one at all.
Garry's standup is nearly as sharp as his cockiness, which really should have taken a hit after Michael 'Venom' Page lit him up in their June fight. He showed a little more grappling skill in that one, although could be accused of backpacking the Englishman to stop getting roasted on the feet. MVP is extremely poor on the ground for a fighter of his experience, though, a luxury Garry won't be afforded on Saturday night.
Prediction: Rakhmonov by submission, Rd. 2.
Haris Kruskic: Well, this is fun.
Shavkat Rakhmonov was supposed to fight Belal Muhammad for the UFC welterweight championship, but the titleholder pulled out because of an infection. Instead of rescheduling, Rakhmonov decided to stay on the card and face fellow undefeated contender Ian Machado Garry.
It felt like these two were always destined to fight one another, but not this soon. Although I think Machado Garry is talented, I wish he had the chance to fight some elite talent at welterweight before going up against arguably the division's best in Rakhmonov.
Someone's 0 must go, and I think that'll be Machado Garry's via a 19th consecutive finish for 'The Nomad'.
Prediction: Rakhmonov by TKO, Rd.3
Tom Taylor: Earlier this week, I watched James Lynch interview Joaquin Buckley, who was briefly matched up with Ian Machado Garry until Garry stepped in to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov this Saturday. During the interview, Buckley boldly predicted that Garry would beat Rakhmonov by decision, which would track as a pretty big upset. His explanation—that Garry's movement and footwork will simply confound a hard-charing Rakhmonov—was pretty convincing. Convincing enough that I very nearly made the same prediction myself right here.
However, after further thought, I just can't pick against Rakhmonov. As my colleagues have covered, he's a perfect 18-0 with a stunning 100 percent finishing rate. At this point, betting against a Rakhmonov finish is like betting against the sun rising tomorrow. I just can't do it.
Prediction: Rakhmonov by submission, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: There's precious little reason to choose Machado Garry here. Rakhmonov has more than proven himself worthy of a title shot since he's been in the company and only a fool would suggest otherwise. But that doesn't mean I won't pick against him for partisan reasons. I like Machado Garry. And it's that affection that makes me think he'll find a way.
Prediction: Machado Garry by KO, Rd. 1
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov II
3 of 5
Nick Akerman: I absolutely love this rematch, although it's one of those fights that I don't want anyone to lose. Ciryl Gane's meticulous dismantling of Serghei Spivac reminded the world that he is a terrifying specimen to deal with. The footwork, the ability to flick the jab out on a bullseye, the bankers to the body. He was made to look ordinary by Jon Jones but it was a great reminder that the Frenchman is absolutely no joke.
Alexander Volkov deserves so much recognition for putting together a four-fight win streak. Few would have expected it when he lost to Tom Aspinall in March 2022. The Russian is always learning and always tweaking his craft, and at 36 years old it's fair to say we're seeing the best he's ever offered.
He can also take heart from the first fight with Gane, in which he dominated the opening two rounds before giving up rounds three, four and five. Gane simply cannot let that happen in this three-rounder and needs a sense of urgency against a man who will be confident of using his stand-up skill to deter the onslaught.
My gut is saying Gane will catch Volkov early in order to make a statement as the one who faces Jones or Aspinall next. My head is saying Gane by unanimous decision. My heart is saying please let both win so we can continue their journeys.
Prediction: Gane by TKO, Rd. 1.
Haris Kruskic: Alexander Volkov has looked great during his four-fight win streak, most notably beating Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight. The issue is he prefers to keep the fight standing and I'm just not sure anyone is beating Ciryl Cane in that scenario.
Gane's inactivity over the last year is worrying, but I think he possesses the better striking and gets the job done.
Prediction: Gane by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: This is a rematch nobody was begging for, but one that makes sense, as Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov are both looking to reestablish themselves as legitimate title contenders at heavyweight.
There are a lot of reasons to assume Gane will win again, but I don't have much faith in him after his losses to Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones, and as Haris said, his inactivity is a big cause for concern. Volkov, on the other hand, has looked excellent of late, with four straight wins in the rear-view mirror. You can see where I'm going with this…
At this point, I think Volkov should be Gane's near equal on the feet, and while he's never been known as a grappler, I see him taking a few pages out of Jones and Ngannou's books and attempting a few takedowns to keep his opponent guessing.
By the time three rounds are up, he'll have done more.
Prediction: Volkov by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Sometimes I just don't learn my lessons. I liked Gane when he got the shot against Jon Jones. I thought he'd trouble an inactive former light heavyweight. And then he folded with as little resistance as I can recall from any fighter in such a big spot. So that means I ought to go with Volkov here. But I guess I won't believe Gane isn't the guy until he proves it twice.
Prediction: Gane by unanimous decision
Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie
4 of 5
Nick Akerman: Honestly, this fight shouldn't be on the main card of a pay-per-view, especially when looking at the insanely stacked prelims.
Kron Gracie hasn't had his hand raised in five years and last time out against Charles Jourdain contrived to make one of the worst fights of 2023. This might be harsh on Bryce Mitchell but I wonder if he accepted this one as a way to ease back in after Josh Emmett knocked his block off a year ago. But, gripes aside, here we are, ready to watch Kron fight for ranking in 2024.
Mitchell is the better fighter both on the feet and on the ground, with Gracie's only real shot of winning this amounting to if he can lock in a submission. It could serve Mitchell well to not immediately rely on his wrestling; he should try to soften Kron up a bit on the feet before changing levels. It's important Mitchell blows away the mental cobwebs of what Emmett did to him and he should look to showcase his full variety of skills against an opponent who is more forgiving than most.
Prediction: Mitchell by unanimous decision.
Haris Kruskic: I have no faith in Kron Gracie after his dismal showing against Charles Jourdain. Frankly, I would pick just about any UFC featherweight facing him.
Prediction: Mitchell by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I'm with Nick. Kron Gracie doesn't belong on the UFC roster, let alone on a UFC pay-per-view. I'll also echo something Haris said: there's not a single featherweight I'd pick Gracie to beat after his embarrassing showing against Charles Jourdain.
While Mitchell is an excellent grappler himself, I expect he'll play to his strengths, and try to keep this one standing. Gracie will probably do plenty of guard-pulling and butt-scooting to avoid having to mix the martial arts, but it will all be for naught. Mitchell will punch him enough to win a wide decision.
Prediction: Mitchell by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Gracie has a historically significant name. But not much else. I'd love to come up with a lot of reasons why this will be interesting, but I can't. Mitchell is too busy and too good.
Prediction: Mitchell by unanimous decision
Nate Landwehr vs. Choi Doo-ho
5 of 5
Nick Akerman: This should be a really fun fight. Both Nate Landwehr and Choi Doo-ho are aggressive, hittable and able to take punishment. Defence may very well go out the window as these two entertainers splatter blood across the octagon for Mitchell and Gracie to lay in later on (I'm not bitter, promise).
Landwehr showed absolutely zero sign of slowing down in his knockout win over Jamall Emmers in March, who was game for the slugfest. Nate's uppercut turned out the lights and the image of him celebrating with a bloodied and bruised face underlines a warrior who will fancy stopping Choi from gaining any momentum.
It's mad to think it's been 10 years since the Korean's UFC debut. He hasn't sustained the hype in his handful of fights since, but the win over Bill Algeo halted a run of four fights without victory (including a draw). The Korean Superboy is 33, so it's looking like now or never. He will need to fix the holes in his defence if he's to last against Landwehr, who will be confident of standing firm and putting his man away.
Prediction: Landwehr by TKO Rd. 2.
Haris Kruskic: I'm a simple man. If Nate Landwehr is fighting, I watch.
"The Train" just has too much explosive power for Choi Doo-ho. I foresee a cracking start to the main card.
Prediction: Landwehr by TKO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: Nate Landwehr and Choi Doo-ho are two of the most consistently exciting fighters in the featherweight division, which is why nobody is complaining that they're opening up the UFC 310 main card. We all know this is going to be good.
My guess is both guys will be throwing power punches before Bruce Buffer has even gotten back to his seat. Neither one of them is particularly accurate, but UFCStats.com has confirmed my suspicion that Choi is marginally more so, so I expect him to land more often, and more cleanly. Landwehr can take a shot, but he has been knocked out before, and at 36, there's no question he can be knocked out again.
In my mind, "The Korean Super Boy" delivers a vintage performance—the kind that got everyone talking about him during his first couple of years in the UFC.
Prediction: Choi by TKO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Sit back and enjoy, folks. This one will be a banger and, yes, a terrific way to start the PPV show. The easiest suggestion is probably saying it ends inside the distance. The vibe here is that Landwehr lands the decisive shots before he's hit with them.
Prediction: Landwehr by KO, Rd. 1
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