Bowl Projections 2024: Playoff Bracket Scenarios, Predictions for Top Games to Watch

How unpredictable was Week 13 of the 2024 college football season? Well, six of the top 16 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings lost over the weekend, and four of those schools were defeated by unranked teams.

As a result, the CFP landscape has changed quite a bit heading into Week 14, the final week of the regular season.

None of Alabama, Ole Miss, BYU or Colorado is still in the projected Playoff field, while Texas A&M is no longer one of the first teams on the outside of the CFP bubble. That's the result of each of those teams getting beaten this past week.

Newcomers such as Arizona State and SMU have pushed its way into the fold. And when the CFP rankings are released Tuesday night, it should help further sort out the Week 13 fallout.

In the meantime, here's a breakdown for the latest CFP projections.

Projected Top 4 Seeds

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SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 16: Ashton Jeanty #2 of the Boise State Broncos celebrates his touchdown with Ben Dooley #66 and Maddux Madsen #4 during a game against the San Jose State Spartans in the fourth quarter at CEFCU Stadium on November 16, 2024 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

1. Oregon (11-0, 8-0 in Big Ten)

2. Texas (10-1, 6-1 in SEC)

3. Miami (10-1, 6-1 in ACC)

4. Boise State (10-1, 7-0 in Mountain West)

Although things will be shaken up this week, nothing changes among the projected top four teams. Oregon had a Week 13 bye, while Texas (a 31-14 win vs. Kentucky), Miami (a 42-14 win vs. Wake Forest) and Boise State (a 17-13 win at Wyoming) were all victorious.

The Ducks have already clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, where they're likely to face Ohio State. However, Penn State and Indiana still have paths to Indianapolis.

Texas and Miami still need to clinch spots in the SEC and ACC title games, respectively. But each team controls its own destiny and can do so by winning in Week 14.

Boise State will host the Mountain West Championship Game and will face either UNLV or Colorado State. The Broncos will be heavy favorites either way.

Projected 1st-round Hosts

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COLUMBUS, OHIO - NOVEMBER 23: Will Howard #18 of the Ohio State Buckeyes throws a pass in the first quarter against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)

5. Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 in Big Ten)

6. Penn State (10-1, 7-1 in Big Ten)

7. Notre Dame (10-1)

8. Georgia (9-2, 6-2 in SEC)

It's still possible that either Ohio State or Penn State could reach the Big Ten Championship Game, beat Oregon to win the conference title and secure a top-four seed in the CFP. There's a greater chance that happens for the Buckeyes than the Nittany Lions.

But both of those teams are well positioned to reach the CFP as at-large teams if the Ducks continue their dominance and cruise to the Big Ten title.

Notre Dame strengthened its case with a quality 49-14 win over Army this past Saturday. It would be a surprise if the Fighting Irish don't make the Playoff at this point, as it would likely require them to lose their regular-season finale at USC.

After playing its way back into the CFP field with a win over Tennessee in Week 12, Georgia handily defeated UMass in Week 13. The Bulldogs have already clinched their spot in the SEC Championship Game, where they're likely to face Texas and could push their way back up the rankings and into a top-four seed.

Projected 1st-round Road Teams

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TEMPE, AZ - NOVEMBER 23: Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) runs the ball during the college football game between the BYU Cougars and the Arizona State Sun Devils on November 23, 2024 at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

9. Indiana (10-1, 7-1 in Big Ten)

10. Tennessee (9-2, 5-2 in SEC)

11. Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 in Big 12)

12. SMU (10-1, 7-0 in ACC)

Of these four teams, Indiana was the only one in the projected CFP field last week. The Hoosiers may have suffered their first loss of the season in Week 13 (a 38-15 defeat at Ohio State), but they still have a case to make the Playoff.

Tennessee benefited from both Alabama and Ole Miss losing on Saturday. If the Vols can avoid an upset at Vanderbilt this week, they'll be in a great spot at the end of the regular season.

Few would have predicted at the beginning of the season that Arizona State would be among the Big 12 front-runners at this point. But the Sun Devils beat BYU on Saturday and also got help in the form of a Colorado loss at Kansas, putting them in a good position to potentially make the conference championship game.

There's now a stronger chance of two ACC teams making it to the CFP. SMU has already clinched its spot in the conference title game and controls its own destiny from here.