NFL MVP Race 2024-25: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 13
The past 11 winners of the NFL MVP Award have been quarterbacks, a streak that began when Peyton Manning received the honor for the fifth time at the end of the 2013 season. Since then, other notable QBs such as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and more have won the award.
There hasn't been a non-QB to win since running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. Could that change at the end of the 2024 season? It's possible.
Through 12 weeks, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has built a strong case to be in NFL MVP contention. But there are plenty of quarterbacks also in the mix, several of whom are among the front-runners with six weeks to go in the regular season.
Here's a look at the current NFL MVP odds, followed by predictions for how things will shake out the rest of the way.
MVP Odds
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Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen: +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: +250
Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: +475
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff: +700
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: +1300
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert: +1800
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: +2500
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow: +3000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield: +3500
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love: +5000
Runner-Up: Saquon Barkley
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It's been made clear that it takes a special season for a non-quarterback to be named NFL MVP. That's exactly what Barkley is having during his first year in Philadelphia.
On Sunday, Barkley had one of his best performances yet, rushing for 255 yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles' 37-20 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. It marked the seventh consecutive win for Philadelphia (9-2), which sits atop the NFC East.
Barkley leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,392), yards per carry (6.2) and yards per game (126.5). The 27-year-old has also scored 12 total touchdowns (10 rushing and two receiving).
There's a strong likelihood that Barkley will be named the NFL Offensive Player of the Year. But he could also win NFL MVP, considering he's putting up huge numbers for a team that should finish among the best in the league.
Can Barkley keep up this pace? It sure seems like it at this point. Defenses are struggling to slow him down, and he's showing why he's been among the NFL's best running backs in recent years while thriving in a new offense.
But the NFL MVP voters may still give a QB more weight when deciding on the award. And there are quite a few quarterbacks who will have strong resumes themselves.
While Barkley ending the QB streak is quite possible, the prediction here is that he'll come up a bit short. However, he'll finish second in NFL MVP voting, capping off what will go down as a memorable season among all-time running backs.
Winner: Josh Allen
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By the time the season is over, the Buffalo Bills could have the best record in the NFL. They have a fairly light remaining schedule, not counting a challenging road matchup against the Detroit Lions in Week 15.
With the Bills (9-2) positioned to finish the season strong, so should Allen, who is the team's leader. The 28-year-old has been among the NFL's top quarterbacks in recent years, but he has never previously won MVP.
That could soon change.
Through 11 games, Allen has passed for 2,543 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has also rushed for 316 yards and five TDs. And, most importantly, he's been leading Buffalo to impressive wins, including a Week 11 victory against the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs.
Allen has had a bit of a tough stretch in recent weeks, having thrown all five of his interceptions over his past four games. He has also thrown only one touchdown pass over the past two weeks.
But it would be a big surprise if Allen doesn't start putting up bigger numbers again in the near future. Once that happens, his NFL MVP case will be even stronger.
Although other quarterbacks and Barkley will keep the MVP conversation close, Allen remains a front-runner for a reason. And he'll get the job done over the next six weeks.
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