Week 13 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 12 Results
While the NFL playoff picture has come into sharper focus over the last few weeks, the league's unpredictable nature reared its oh-so-entertaining head once again in Week 12.
The Pittsburgh Steelers fell flat to a three-win Cleveland Browns team on Thursday night, while the Kansas City Chiefs needed a last-second field goal to outlast the Carolina Panthers.
The Washington Commanders blew a winnable game against the Dallas Cowboys. Washington was a sizeable favorite but played like the underdog throughout the contest. A missed extra point thwarted the Commanders' comeback attempt.
It's still difficult to predict how games will unfold, and things won't get any easier this week with four short-week games on Thursday and Friday. Based on the early lines, though, here are a few picks to consider.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Lions -10.5 Versus Bears
1 of 3
Short-week games are hard, and divisional matchups are tricky. The Detroit Lions lost last year's Thanksgiving game 29-22 to the rival Green Bay Packers. Why back the Lions as double-digit favorites against the Chicago Bears this week? Well, there are a few reasons.
For one, this team is much more complete than last year's. A reloaded secondary has helped create balance, while Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and the rest of the offense have upped their game.
Detroit is eager to win and to win big, regularly racking up points long after the game has been decided.
Secondly, the Bears have been atrocious on the road under head coach Matt Eberflus. Chicago is 3-18 in road games during his tenure. While all three wins have come on a day other than Sunday, Eberflus has never beaten a winning team on the road.
It's also worth noting that Chicago got the better of Detroit the last time these two teams met, by a 28-13 margin. The Lions would probably love a little revenge, and they're likely to get it on Thursday.
Texans -5.5 at Jaguars
2 of 3
The Houston Texans lost to the Tennessee Titans in Week 12, and there were few points in the game where they played particularly well. This team isn't as good as last year's squad, and quarterback C.J. Stroud has regressed.
The last time Houston faced the Jacksonville Jaguars, it escaped with a four-point win. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week and may have Trevor Lawrence back in the lineup for the rematch.
Lawrence (shoulder) returned to practice on Monday.
Can the Texans really cover on the road after barely getting by in the first meeting at home? We think so. Lawrence's injury has played a role in Jacksonville's struggles, but poor coaching and bad defense have also been to blame.
After losing three of their last four, the Texans are getting desperate, and that makes them dangerous against a defense ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed, 32nd in total yards allowed and 30th in points allowed.
Expect Houston to get back on track with a touchdown victory on Sunday.
Buccaneers -5 at Panthers
3 of 3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also desperate. They ended their four-game winning streak with a 30-7 win over the New York Giants on Sunday, but at 5-6, there remains no margin for error.
The Panthers represent a tough challenge in Carolina. They've been much better in recent weeks, and quarterback Bryce Young is finally starting to play up to his draft status. One could argue that he was the best quarterback on the field against Kansas City—at least, up until the Chiefs' game-winning drive.
If Young can shine against a good Kansas City defense, he can do so against a below-average Buccaneers defense.
However, Baker Mayfield has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, while offensive coordinator Liam Coen has continually dialed up successful game plans. The Bucs have a dangerous backfield, and wideout Mike Evans is back on the field. That's a lethal combination against Carolina's 32nd-ranked scoring defense.
This may be a game in which the team that holds the ball last wins. We'll give the edge to the team that didn't just shoot its best shot against the defending champions.
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