College Football Playoffs 2024-25: Week 13 Clinch and Bracket Elimination Scenarios

For the past few weeks, it seemed likely Boise State would be the lowest-ranked conference champion in the College Football Playoff field, the only one of the five to not get a first-round bye. However, that may not end up being the case.

The Broncos are trucking toward a Mountain West championship and moved up to No. 12 in the latest edition of the CFP rankings released Tuesday night. They're now ahead of every team from the Big 12, including conference front-runners BYU (No. 14) and Colorado (No. 16).

There are still two weeks to go in the regular season, as well as conference championship week, so plenty could still change. But at this point, Boise State has put itself in a position to secure a first-round bye for the CFP, assuming the team continues to take care of business.

Now, attention turns to Week 13, which could have a big impact on the CFP rankings and the projected playoff field. Several big matchups may affect where things stand heading into the final week of the regular season.

Here's a look at several Week 13 games that could move teams either closer to clinching a spot in the CFP field or closer to getting knocked out of consideration.

Big Ten Clash in Columbus Will Have Strong CFP Implications

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BLOOMINGTON, IN - NOVEMBER 09: Indiana Hoosiers QB Kurtis Rourke (9) during a college football game between the Michigan Wolverines and Indiana Hoosiers on November 9, 2024 at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, IN (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Is No. 5 Indiana a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, or have the undefeated Hoosiers benefited from a fairly light schedule to this point?

That could be determined Saturday, when they go on the road for a crucial Big Ten showdown vs. No. 2 Ohio State in Columbus.

The winner of this game should essentially punch their ticket to the CFP, as they will likely be heading to the Big Ten Championship Game to face No. 1 Oregon. And at that point, a loss to the Ducks likely wouldn't knock a two-loss Ohio State or a one-loss Indiana out of the field.

If Ohio State wins Saturday, it will likely head to the conference championship game with an 11-1 record, as it should then defeat Michigan at home on Nov. 30. The Buckeyes already own a win over No. 4 Penn State, so they'd be in a great position in terms of potential tiebreakers.

If Indiana wins, it should finish the regular season without a loss, as it closes things out with a home matchup vs. Purdue on Nov. 30. However, if the Hoosiers lose to the Buckeyes, their CFP resume will take a bit of a hit, as they have not defeated a ranked team all season.

This will likely be the biggest game of Week 13, and it will be intriguing to watch.

BYU Could Soon Fall from Top of Big 12 Standings

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PROVO, UT - NOVEMBER 16: Marvin Grant #4 of the Kansas Jayhawks tackles Chase Roberts #2 of the Brigham Young Cougars short of the first down marker during the final minute of second half of their game at LaVell Edwards Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Provo, Utah.(Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)

BYU took an unexpected stumble last Saturday, when it suffered its first loss of the season in surprising fashion. After reeling off nine consecutive wins to open the year, the Cougars fell to 9-1 with a 17-13 home loss to unranked Kansas.

Things won't get any easier for BYU this week, when it goes on the road to face Arizona, which is 8-2 and now ranked No. 21 in the CFP rankings. The Sun Devils are coming off an impressive 24-14 road victory at Kansas State.

BYU and Colorado are currently tied atop the Big 12 standings with 6-1 conference records. However, the Cougars' remaining regular-season schedule (at Arizona State, vs. Houston) is more difficult than the Buffaloes' upcoming slate (at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State).

At this point, it feels like Colorado is in a better position to finish the regular season without losing again. And if it builds that kind of momentum, it could ride it to a win in the Big 12 Championship Game, where it could meet either BYU or Arizona State.

So, if BYU hopes to stay in the CFP mix (and then solidify a spot in the playoff field), it may not be able to afford a second consecutive loss this week.

Could Army Halt Notre Dame's Push Toward Playoff?

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SOUTH BEND, INDIANA - NOVEMBER 16: Jeremiyah Love #4 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish rushes for a first down in the first half against the Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Stadium on November 16, 2024 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Although Notre Dame had a surprising loss to Northern Illinois early in the season, the Fighting Irish have pushed their way up to No. 6 in the CFP rankings thanks to nine straight wins that have improved their record to 9-1.

However, Notre Dame is an independent school and won't have a conference championship game, so it can't afford any more losses.

The Fighting Irish face their toughest remaining test on Saturday, when they'll play No. 19 Army on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium in New York. The Black Knights are 9-0 and will have an opportunity to make quite a statement by emerging victorious.

If Notre Dame wins, it should be headed to the CFP. Its final regular-season matchup will be a road contest against struggling USC on Nov. 30.

Again, though, any potential stumble by the Fighting Irish could end their bid for the playoff. That makes this week's matchup against Army another must-win contest for them.