MLB Free Agency 2024: Educated Guesses On Potential Early Signings
In concept, the Major League Baseball offseason is an exciting time. But in reality, it's been known to veer into "don't hold your breath" territory.
In the last two winters, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge didn't sign until well into December. It's also hardly unheard of for guys to linger on the market into spring training, as Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery did earlier this year.
But with the 2024-25 free-agent market technically opening all the way up on Monday, it's worth thinking about players who could be quick to sign deals.
Let's look at eight guys in particular who are candidates to sign before November is over. Each comes with his own set of circumstances, but most are here because they would be risking too much if they opted to play the long game in shopping their services.
We'll go in alphabetical order and pick out an ideal landing spot for each of them. And just so everyone's on the same page, "QO" refers to the qualifying offer, which is worth $21.05 million this winter.
RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
1 of 8
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 10 H (0 HR), 20 K, 1 BB
Why He Should Sign Soon
If Shane Bieber was fully healthy right now, he would figure to be one of the most sought-after starting pitchers of the winter.
But Bieber is, of course, not fully healthy. He's still in recovery after having had Tommy John surgery in April. He doesn't project to return until midway through 2025.
Bieber's situation is similar to that of Tyler Mahle, who had Tommy John in May 2023 but was still able to land a two-year, $22 million deal from the Texas Rangers in December.
However, Bieber being further along in his recovery isn't the only difference between the two. He also comes with quite a bit more upside. He's been a top-of-the-rotation type his entire career, and the two starts he made out of the gate this season were the best he'd looked since he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2020.
The sooner a team scoops Bieber up, the sooner it can work with him on a return timeline. Bieber himself wouldn't seem to have much incentive to let the process play out, as it's hard to imagine him somehow becoming more appealing as the market thins out.
Ideal Landing Spot: Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians badly need to address their starting rotation this winter, and reuniting with Bieber is a practical way to check at least one box. They obviously know him better than anyone, and he figures to land within even their price range.
Prediction: No QO, re-signs on 1-year, $14 million deal with 2026 player option
RHP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 8
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 16 GS, 75.1 IP, 89 H (16 HR), 64 K, 28 BB, 5.38 ERA
Why He Should Sign Soon
If ever there was a free agent who in a position to strike while the iron is hot, it's Walker Buehler right here and right now.
Before the postseason, he looked like he would be a reclamation project in free agency. His return from his second Tommy John surgery didn't go well, and it was no mirage. His stuff just wasn't the same.
Yet after a rough first outing in the playoffs, Buehler reverted to his vintage self. His last three appearances were all scoreless, culminating with him saving Game 5 of the World Series on one day of rest.
It's hard to think of another player who raised his free-agent stock as much as Buehler did during the playoffs. And yet, he would do well to not get overconfident.
Despite his ace pedigree and his strong showing in October, Buehler isn't nearly on the same tier as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell. Or even that of Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, for that matter.
As such, Buehler would do well to capitalize on his momentum and sign quick before those guys drain precious dollars from the pitching market.
Ideal Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
It's a good rotation the Cubs have, but there's a hole in it where Kyle Hendricks used to be. Buehler should appeal to them as a guy who could bring some bat-missing potential. It would also be fun to see him reunited with Cody Bellinger, a fellow former Dodgers champion.
Prediction: No QO, signs 3-year, $30 million deal with 2025 opt-out
LF Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 8
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 154 G, 652 PA, 33 HR, 12 SB, .272 AVG, .339 OBP, .501 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
Elsewhere on the topic of Dodgers stars coming into free agency with momentum, Teoscar Hernández is partly in the same boat as Walker Buehler.
The slugger did have a cold spell in the National League Championship Series, but he hit three home runs and drove in 12 runs throughout the playoffs. It's fair to say that the last two of those RBI were pretty important.
The obvious difference between Buehler and Hernández is that the latter also had a terrific regular season. It therefore doesn't take much to imagine Hernández scoring as many as nine figures this winter.
Still, he also needs to be careful about being overconfident.
Hernández was likewise a candidate for a big contract last winter, yet that possibility went up in smoke so badly that he had to settle for a one-year, $23.5 million deal. And while he does have momentum on his side this time, the market could be more in his favor.
He's the third-best corner outfield option after Juan Soto and Anthony Santander. Rather than the other way around, Hernández should look to set the market for them by being quick to ink a multi-year deal.
Ideal Landing Spot: Washington Nationals
The time is right for the Nationals to make a Jayson Werth-style signing. Hernández is an almost too-perfect option, as he fits Washington as a much-needed left fielder and a right-handed power source. They got only 42 homers from that side of the plate this year.
Prediction: Rejects QO, signs 4-year, $80 million deal
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LHP Sean Manaea, New York Mets
4 of 8
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 32 GS, 181.2 IP, 134 H (21 HR), 184 K, 63 BB, 3.47 ERA
Why He Should Sign Soon
So, here's the thing about Sean Manaea being on this list: It's predicated on the notion that he's destined to return to the Mets.
With him, Luis Severino and José Quintana entering the free-agent market at the same time, the Mets have as many as three holes to fill in their rotation. They don't necessarily have to fill them with those same three guys, but it would be a surprise if at least one didn't re-sign.
To this end, here's what Manaea said after he and the Mets were eliminated from the playoffs: "I love my time here. I love New York. I love the organization. I love all the people here."
Following a year in which he put up a 3.47 ERA over 181.2 innings, Manaea is in a spot to pursue a multiyear deal. He isn't likely to strike it too rich, however. He's on the older side for a starter pitcher and his profile is merely that of a No. 3 starter.
The Mets can certainly afford a guy like that. So much so, in fact, that even re-signing Manaea would barely put a dent in their budget for some combination of Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Pete Alonso.
Since those sweepstakes are likely to last a while, it's in their interest to do what business they can while they can.
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Mets
Though Manaea hypothetically fits with starting pitching-needy teams like the Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins, he and the Mets just feel like a natural pairing. And if he actually is their No. 3 starter in 2025, that'll be a sign of a legitimately elite rotation.
Prediction: Rejects QO, re-signs on 3-year, $51 million deal
LF Tyler O'Neill, Boston Red Sox
5 of 8
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 113 G, 473 PA, 31 HR, 4 SB, .241 AVG, .336 OBP, .511 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
With Tyler O'Neill, we have another case where both player and team would be wise to continue what was a fruitful partnership in 2024.
The Red Sox picked the muscular slugger up as a reclamation project last winter, yet even they might not have dared hope for the returns they got. O'Neill led the team in homers and was one of the five best pure power hitters in MLB.
Unsurprisingly, though, Fenway Park is owed an assist on the righty's power production. That likely won't be lost on other prospective suitors, and what certainly won't be is O'Neill's injury history.
This season marked only the second time in seven seasons that O'Neill has played in over 100 games. And he didn't even stay injury-free, missing time with five different issues.
O'Neill will otherwise be the fourth-best corner outfielder available on the market after Juan Soto, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández. As with Hernández, he'd be wise to get a good deal before the big guys soak up all the money.
Ideal Landing Spot: Boston Red Sox
For their part, the Red Sox can ill afford to lose O'Neill's right-handed thump. They should also know that they stand to gain more from his pull power than most teams and that they have enough outfield depth to cover for him if he needs to DH more often.
Prediction: Rejects QO, re-signs on 3-year, $45 million deal
LF Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
6 of 8
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 158 G, 668 PA, 24 HR, 10 SB, .280 AVG, .380 OBP, .459 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
It took 11 years, but this season saw Jurickson Profar finally look like the superstar that was promised once upon a time.
He was one of the most productive hitters in the National League, notably ranking second to only Shohei Ohtani in on-base percentage. And while his defense still rates as firmly below average, you have to hand it to him for that one catch in the NLDS:
Even with all this said, Profar is another guy who needs to keep a lid on his confidence that he'll score big in free agency.
He had a heck of a year, but to call it an outlier would be overstating it. He's been a below-average hitter with modest power and speed for pretty much his entire career. And since he'll turn 32 on February 20, 2025, this was hardly a case of a young guy finally finding his footing after a few early missteps.
To be sure, Profar is going to do a lot better than the one-year, $1 million deal that he took in February. But the longer he waits to sign, he may be pushed further and further toward having to discount his services again.
Ideal Landing Spot: San Diego Padres
Profar has been open about wanting to stay in San Diego, and the feeling should be mutual. The Padres don't have a readily available replacement in left field, and Profar simply hits better with them (.743 OPS) than he has with any other team (.703 OPS).
Prediction: No QO, re-signs on 3-year, $39 million deal
LHP Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants
7 of 8
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 20 GS, 104.0 IP, 65 H (6 HR), 145 K, 44 BB, 3.12 ERA
Why He Should Sign Soon
Blake Snell has already done the thing where he's lingered on the market for a long time, and it feels safe to assume that he wouldn't recommend it.
This was the two-time Cy Young Award winner in May:
It bears noting not only that Snell didn't fire Scott Boras over this, but that he came to his agent's defense against criticism from fellow lefty Jordan Montgomery.
All the same, call it a hunch that Snell would rather not have a prolonged stay on the open market all over again. And if so, it should help his cause that he has entered free agency with more momentum than the other aces on the market.
As bad as this year started for Snell, it sure finished with a flourish. He utterly dominated in his last 14 starts, posting a 1.23 ERA and fanning 38.1 percent of the batters he faced.
Snell rejected a $38.5 million option for 2025 in order to become a free agent. Even if it's in a shorter deal, he could potentially beat that number by a nine-figure sum.
Ideal Landing Spot: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox need an ace. The Red Sox also have an aversion to doing long-term deals in free agency. The fit with Snell is good just from these perspectives, and it doesn't hurt that he also has a track record of success in the AL East.
Prediction: Ineligible for QO, signs 4-year, $140 million deal
1B Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
8 of 8
Age: 33
2024 Stats: 130 G, 552 PA, 26 HR, 2 SB, .251 AVG, .335 OBP, .468 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
Christian Walker has a compelling underdog story to tell.
He was only a fourth-round pick back in 2012, and he didn't become a full-time player in the majors until his age-28 season in 2019. Arguably, he didn't become a proper star until 2022.
Now he's the best all-around first basemen on the open market. Teams that turn to him will want him not just for his 30-homer power, but also for excellent defense that just won him a third Gold Glove.
But since he's 33 years old, Walker's earning power only goes so high. And even if he's the better overall talent, he shouldn't wait for Pete Alonso to set the market for power-hitting first basemen.
There's likely to be a bigger crowd around Alonso, and him signing first could conceivably cost Walker in two ways. One is simply by taking an ideal suitor off Walker's board. Another is Alonso's contract ending up lighter than expected, which seems possible.
Perhaps an even better question than when Walker signs is with who. He's hinted at there being a "a good chance" he returns to Arizona, but other teams are bound to come calling with competitive offers.
Ideal Landing Spot: Houston Astros
The Astros badly need to upgrade at first base, and Walker isn't just an ideal option with regard to his bat and glove. With money seemingly at a premium right now, he's a much better fit for the club's payroll situation than Alonso.
Prediction: Rejects QO, signs 3-year, $60 million deal
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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