B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 10
When the weeks become double digits, things get real. The weather gets football-y. The stakes grow larger. The schedule slowly starts to vanish before our eyes.
While researching our Week 10 picks, the reality of what's left became clear. Thanksgiving is suddenly very much in sight, and the first College Football Playoff rankings of this season are on our doorstep.
Pardon the lecture but gather 'round for a minute. Please celebrate each and every college football game while you can.
To date, we haven't celebrated nearly enough when it comes to Locks of the Week. Another .500-ish week speaks to that, leaving us with a record of 38-44 for the year. Every time we think we hit a hot streak, well, we don't quite see it through.
Like the best college football programs in the country, however, we're more interested in a strong finish rather than a nice start. With that in mind, let's review the good—and not-so-good—from the week that was before getting to our picks.
The Good: Notre Dame (-12.5) at Navy: This one didn't require an ounce of stress. Notre Dame jumped out to an early lead, and the Irish didn't look back from there. We need more games like this one.
The Bad: UCF (-1.5) vs. BYU: The oddsmakers felt strongly about UCF. As a result, so did I. As absurd as this line looked, BYU made it look frankly foolish with a cozy win. We outsmarted ourselves here.
With that out of the way, let's move to Week 10.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
South Carolina (+2.5) vs. Texas A&M
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If nothing else, the many people who follow—and wager on—the sport of college football know how to properly overreact.
At this exact moment, the Aggies are one of the greatest shows in town. Unbeaten in the SEC and coming off their most important win of the year, there is certainly much to like. A&M might have also struck gold in QB Marcel Reed, who replaced Conner Weigman during its game against LSU. The offense never looked back.
Now the No. 10 ranked team, the Aggies are a slight favorite on the road against a team that is currently 4-3. As such, Texas A&M will be one of the most bet teams this week.
When they zig, we zag.
South Carolina is coming off a bye. Before that, the Gamecocks delivered a dominating win at Oklahoma. With one of the nation's best defensive lines rested, South Carolina will take on a team playing its first true road game of the season.
If you've read this column before, you know the drill. Gamecocks outright.
Auburn (-6.5) vs. Vanderbilt
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The last time we backed Auburn, things went incredibly for a while before they turned incredibly unwell at the end.
That moment came against Oklahoma a month-or-so back, and the Tigers' late unraveling served as perhaps the low point of a four-game losing streak.
At long last, that streak is over. Auburn beat Kentucky on the road last week with a solid serving of defense. For as much as the offense has struggled, this side of the ball has done its part.
Now, the Tigers will take on one of the hottest teams in the nation. Vanderbilt, fresh off an upset over Alabama, nearly upset Texas in Week 9. Despite those efforts, the oddsmakers see the Commodores as a sizable underdog against a three-win team.
I love how Diego Pavia has played for Vandy, although this will be a challenging road game for the very capable QB. And the Auburn running game, which caught fire last week, should keep Pavia on the sideline and give the Tigers enough juice to score.
It won't be pretty, but it will be effective.
Syracuse (+4) vs. Virginia Tech
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To say Syracuse laid an egg against Pittsburgh last week would be an understatement.
Quarterback Kyle McCord, who had been a bright spot for the Orange heading into last week, threw five interceptions. He was also sacked repeatedly. As a result, Syracuse finished the game with 29 carries for a grand total of six yards.
Woof.
Sometimes, games fall apart. That one did for Syracuse, and Pitt deserves credit for that.
But one game shouldn't define a season, team or player, and a home game should help solidify some normalcy for a team that could use it.
Virginia Tech will do everything it can to avoid that, and the Hokies have played better of late. Those performances have largely come against inferior and banged up teams, so it's fair to question how it will translate here.
Last week was bad, but there's always next week. Next week is now for Syracuse, which is positioned to win outright as a small underdog.
SMU (-7.5) vs. Pittsburgh
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The Mustangs cost us money last week, and we're not thrilled about it. Let's get that out of the way.
SMU turned the ball over six times against Duke. That's not a typo. Even more remarkable, despite giving the ball away a half-dozen times, the Mustangs still found a way to win.
There's a lot to unpack from a win like that beyond the obvious. Regardless of the lingering effects, SMU finds itself a robust favorite over one of the remaining undefeated teams. The fact that this spread sits where it does will likely surprise some.
Pitt has been excellent this year, especially in close games. The Panthers are 4-0 in games decided by 10 points or less.
SMU is hoping this game doesn't come to that. In fact, the Mustangs, assuming they stop giving the ball to the other team, will take all the good that came out of the game against Duke without all the bad.
NC State (-9.5) vs. Stanford
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Weeks ago, after many disappointing minutes and results, we declared NC State's football season dead. Many liked this team as a dark horse to win the ACC before the season began.
Then, the actual games began.
Indeed, things have been a challenge. Although after winning a game at Cal, thanks largely to the play of freshman QB CJ Bailey, the outlook feels different. The vibes have changed.
At the very least, based on an aggressive line, the oddsmakers seem to feel that way.
Playing against Stanford undoubtedly helps. The Cardinal has lost five consecutive games, and only one of those games was played on the road. Now, Stanford will travel thousands of miles to compete in a game that will start at noon local time.
This is not a good football team. This is not a good matchup. While the Wolfpack might be a work in progress, this is an ideal matchup to say the least.
Other Games on the Card
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Nevada (+1.5) vs. Colorado State
It's not exactly the game the masses will line up to see, although the spread, given their records, is fascinating. Nevada is better than its record shows, and this game will showcase just that.
Troy (+4.5) vs. Coastal Carolina
A year ago, this could have been a marquee game. Neither team has produced the kind of season we've grown to expect, and Troy's regression has been substantial. The Trojans lose another close game, although this time they cover.
UCF (-6.5) vs. Arizona
We're back on the UCF train the same week a change was made at defensive coordinator. More than anything here, Arizona's road woes this year have been noteworthy. This week, they continue.
Arizona State at Oklahoma State (Over 58.5)
The Pokes have not had the season many, including this writer, thought they would have. With that season, the offense can still cook. In this game, both offenses should move the ball up and down the field with ease.
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