B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 9
When it looks too easy, oftentimes that is not the case. No matter how many years of experience you have or games you've wagered on, the lesson seems to surface more than it should.
For further proof of this, let's talk about Texas. The Longhorns looked like the best team in college football heading into last week, and they were taking on a Georgia squad that has underwhelmed in its fair share of moments.
We liked Texas, because the Longhorns were at home and our eyes told us this was the wise thing to do. We bet the Longhorns, thinking very little about the four-point spread. Then, on cue, Georgia obliterated the nation's No. 1 team in its own building.
It looked too easy. As it turns out, it was not.
We finished the week 3-5 with our picks, unable to hold the momentum from a 7-2 performance from Week 7. For the year, we're a very underwhelming 34-39. But that will change.
Before we get into this week's batch of winners, here is what went right and wrong from the week that was.
The Good: Maryland (+7.5) vs. USC: This wasn't necessarily an easy win, although the Terps battled back to win outright at home. In the new-look Big Ten, these long road trips are proving to be a challenge. (More on that soon.)
The Bad: West Virginia (+3) vs. Kansas State: This one looked too easy. As it turns out, it was. West Virginia turned the ball over repeatedly, and K-State took advantage. I need a break from betting on the Mountaineers.
With that complete, here are this week's picks.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
UNLV (+3) vs. Boise State
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Oh, fading the most explosive player in college football doesn't feel like wise planning. Let's start there.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is one of the most dynamic players we've seen at the position in some time. He can take a game over at any point, and he can score from just about anywhere. The Heisman favorite has been exceptional.
With that established, we're fading Boise State in a hugely important game for both teams.
For as good as Jeanty has been, UNLV currently has the No. 20 rush defense in America right now, thanks largely to the influence of defensive-minded head coach Barry Odom.
He'll have a plan for Jeanty. That doesn't mean UNLV will stop him from being successful, but it could slow him down enough to give the potent UNLV offense—which currently ranks fifth nationally—enough time to cook.
Don't sleep on this wildly fun Friday night matchup. The stakes are massive for both.
Minnesota (-4) vs. Maryland
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For only the third time this season, Maryland will play on the road. The Terps will do so, of course, having just delivered their best win of the year—a victory that won us money less than a week ago.
As much as we appreciate Maryland's efforts from this past Saturday, our loyalty only stretches so far. In this instance, it doesn't stretch far at all.
Before finding a way to upset USC, thanks largely to the Trojans' miscues, Maryland had lost two games. The most recent loss, an ugly 37-10 defeat to Northwestern, was most concerning of all.
The Gophers are coming off back-to-back wins over both L.A. teams before enjoying a bye in Week 8. While their performance has been nowhere near perfect, it has improved as of late. Coming into this game fresh also can't hurt.
Sure, Maryland was kind to the bank account. We do appreciate that. But this is a business, and hard decisions must be made.
Minnesota 27, Maryland 20.
USC (-14) vs. Rutgers
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Speaking of USC, enter the Trojans.
At a time when Lincoln Riley's future in Los Angeles is being questioned—and probably for good reason—the uneasiness will temporarily fade when his football team rolls against a conference foe traveling thousands of miles for a conference game.
This is, quite simply, a terrible spot for Rutgers.
The game will be played at 8 p.m. local time in California, which means Rutgers will begin playing the second quarter at around what the players would normally consider midnight. We haven't gotten to use the term "body clock" in a while, although this feels like the perfect time to do so.
Add in the fact that Rutgers has now lost three games in row, and we might have serious issues.
Riley isn't perfect, and the concerns regarding his future at USC should persist. But those questions won't be an issue here.
USC wins this game by at least three touchdowns.
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UCF (-1.5) vs. BYU
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One team is unbeaten. The other is currently under .500, coming off a crippling loss that it will be thinking about for some time.
Guess which one we're betting on?
No point spread jumped off the page when the lines opened more than this one. Since debuting, this spread has also jumped around.
Indeed, the Cougars have been superb thus far, covering in all but one game during their 7-0 start. The one game they didn't cover in just so happened to be the most recent. Oklahoma State, amid an underwhelming year, nearly pushed this team to the brink. While BYU managed to stay unbeaten, the defense wasn't exactly stellar.
Now, BYU must hit the road and travel to UCF. And although it has been an up and down year for the Knights, the oddsmakers certainly haven't lost faith. If they're backing this team, so will I.
The Cougars are a fabulous story, make no mistake about it. But all fabulous stories hit a roadblock at some point, and that roadblock has arrived.
The betting public is likely to sprint to the unbeaten team. You know what that means…
Notre Dame (-12.5) at Navy
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Many weeks later, Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois still feels somewhat raw.
In reality, the Irish have moved on nicely since that outcome, winning every game since and covering the spread in four of the last five.
With Riley Leonard at QB, the offense doesn't always feel like it's totally firing. It can still look somewhat clunky. Still, he's been productive, and the ND defense, which currently ranks in the top five in scoring, will keep this team in every game.
Playing Navy, the nation's No. 4 rushing attack, the defense will have to be on point. And despite how good Navy has been, Notre Dame should be up for it.
The Midshipmen are unbeaten, although it's fair to question the quality of opponents to date. To reach 6-0, Navy beat Bucknell, Temple, Memphis (good win), UAB, Air Force and Charlotte.
The team deserves credit for reaching this point, although Notre Dame should be a cut above in all facets. We said the same against Northern Illinois, of course, although things feel different now
Other Games on the Card
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Wisconsin (+6.5) vs. Penn State
This was a late addition to our picks, which is why it's being featured here rather than getting a deeper breakdown. After much thought, however, Wisconsin feels primed to upset the No. 3 team at home. The oddsmakers certainly feel that way, and so should we.
SMU (-11.5) at Duke
Is it personal with Duke? Let's not call it personal just yet, although I have certainly looked for the right time to catch the Blue Devils. This feels like the time, with a potent SMU defense coming to town. This one could (finally) get ugly.
Kansas State vs. Kansas (Over 55.5)
This underrated rivalry game has a chance to produce. While the spread is hovering around double digits, Kansas can do its part to keep the game close enough. Regardless of the final score, this one is likely to eclipse the total.
Miami vs. Florida State (Over 54.5)
For as weird as the last month has been for Miami, this game doesn't have to be weird at all. Miami should roll past the Seminoles at home. Still, FSU should be able to do its part. Cam Ward goes nuts; Florida State does just enough.
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