NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive
It's tough times for survivor participants, as the first three weeks of the NFL season have been rife with upsets. Things won't get any easier in Week 4.
With the possible exception of teams like the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings, we still don't know which teams are truly good. Unfortunately, the Bills (at Baltimore Ravens), Seahawks (at Detroit Lions) and Vikings (at Green Bay Packers) all face brutal matchups this week.
Still, participants who are still alive must carry on and make selections for the upcoming schedule.
Below, you'll find a few survivor tips for Week 4. You'll also find some top picks for the slate using the latest odds as a guideline.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
General Survivor Tips for Week 4
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It's always best to start with games to avoid, and we have a few that stand out in Week 4.
As previously mentioned, it's hard to trust the Bills (+2.5) against the Ravens, the Seahawks (+4) against the Lions or the Vikings (+2.5) against the Packers. It's equally difficult to trust the home teams in these matchups as well.
The Lions haven't been clicking offensively as they did last year, while the Ravens defense has taken a step back after the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. Green Bay is a tremendously coached team and may have Jordan Love back under center, but Minnesota looks like one of the most complete teams in football.
The Tennessee Titans (+1) and Miami Dolphins game, which will open a Monday night doubleheader, is also dicey. Miami doesn't have starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), while Tennessee has a quarterback in Will Levis who can't stop turning the ball over.
We'd also avoid the Cleveland Browns (+1) game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Cleveland is down to a skeleton crew along the offensive line, which is a massive problem against Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. However, the Raiders have struggled defensively and are getting inconsistent play out of quarterback Gardner Minshew.
While we typically suggest avoiding divisional games, especially those in prime time, the Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) might be worth trusting against the New York Giants.
The Giants got their first win in Week 3, but they did it against a horrendous Browns offensive line and an offense that lacks a cohesive game plan. Dallas knows New York well and should have a strategy for limiting the Giants' pass rush and rookie receiver Malik Nabers.
Trust the 49ers Against the Patriots
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The San Francisco 49ers blew it against the rival Los Angeles Rams in Week 3. Special teams miscues (missed field goal, poor punt coverage) let the Rams back into a game they had no business winning.
Injuries certainly didn't do San Francisco any favors, as it was without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. McCaffrey is still on injured reserve, and the statuses of Samuel and Kittle for Week 4 are still unknown.
However, the 49ers will be back home this week, likely learned from their Week 3 mistakes, and will face a New England Patriots team that has significant offensive liabilities.
With Jacoby Brissett under center, the Patriots simply don't possess a threatening passing attack. Their offensive line has also been horrendous—it allowed seven sacks last Thursday night.
While Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and the 49ers offense may not gash the Patriots defense the way the New York Jets did in Week 3, San Francisco's defense should allow the team to take over.
At 1-2, the 49ers (-10) are desperate. Injury concerns or no, if they can't beat the Patriots at home, they can pretty much wave goodbye to their Super Bowl hopes in 2024.
Consider the Jets Against the Broncos
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The Denver Broncos (+7) have a stout defense, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix showed flashes of what he can do as an NFL quarterback last Sunday. Denver rolled a good Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, 26-7.
However, it's worth noting that Denver faced a Buccaneers defense that was without three key players in Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Antoine Winfield Jr.
The New York Jets defense is largely healthy, and its pass rush (14 sacks) can do a much better job of pressuring Nix than the Bucs did.
The Jets also have a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers under center and that gives them an edge against Denver's third-ranked defense. The 40-year-old has seen it all at the NFL level and knows how to put his offense in favorable situations.
"He's a guy that's out there communicating, getting us to the right call, right play," center Joe Tippman said, per SNY's Ben Krimmel. "He's breaking down the defense before they're even showing what they have."
If Rodgers can't find answers for the Broncos defense, New York can always lean on its talented backfield duo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. Denver currently ranks 16th in yards per carry allowed and 21st in rushing yards allowed.
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