Ranking MLB Wild-Card Contenders As Threats to Win the 2024 World Series
Since Major League Baseball switched to its current playoff format in 2022, three of the four teams who have reached the World Series have done so after getting into the postseason as wild-card representatives.
2022 Philadelphia Phillies: After sneaking into the playoffs as the sixth and final playoff team in the NL with 87 wins, the Phillies upset the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres to win the pennant before falling to the Houston Astros in the World Series in six games.
2023 Arizona Diamondbacks: With 84 wins, the Diamondbacks were the final NL team to reach the postseason in 2023. All they would do is defeat the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Phillies en route to winning the second NL pennant in franchise history.
2023 Texas Rangers: Bruce Bochy's squad narrowly lost out to the Houston Astros in the AL West, instead settling for the No. 2 wild-card spot in the Junior Circuit. They beat the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Astros and Diamondbacks to win the first World Series title in team history.
So, what wild-card team is next? With the assumption that the current division leaders—New York Yankees (AL East), Cleveland Guardians (AL Central), Astros (AL West), Phillies (NL East), Brewers (NL Central) and Dodgers (NL West)—will hold on, here's a ranking of the nine teams still realistically in the wild-card race in terms of who is the biggest threat to win the World Series in 2024.
9. Seattle Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners are a frustrating team because even with Luis Castillo currently on the injured list with a left hamstring strain, they have four pitchers—Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo—you would feel good about taking the ball in the postseason.
Unfortunately, they are 24th in runs scored, and that's not just because they overvalued Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver coming into the season.
- Julio Rodríguez has been one of the most disappointing players in baseball this season. J-Rod has a .715 OPS this year after posting a .834 OPS across his first two MLB seasons.
- J.P. Crawford is hitting under .200 after hitting .266 with 19 home runs and 65 RBI in a career year at the plate last year.
- Randy Arozarena has a .754 OPS since being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, which isn't awful but certainly isn't indicative of someone who has had a major impact on a team that desperately needed an injection of lineup talent.
If the Mariners get into the postseason and a couple of hitters get hot, they could be dangerous with arguably the best starting pitching in the sport. But an underwhelming offense will likely mean Seattle is at home in October.
8. Minnesota Twins
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The Twins are difficult to project because their lineup relies on three players—Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton—who have played less than 100 games this season and have lengthy injury histories.
Pablo López and Bailey Ober could be a potent one-two punch in a short series. Although they don't have much depth, as Simeon Woods Richardson has a 5.09 ERA since the All-Star break, and Joe Ryan has been on the injured list since August with a right shoulder strain.
Above all else, some franchise demons need to be exorcised. The Twins haven't won a playoff series since defeating the Oakland Athletics in the 2002 ALDS. Since then, they've lost 10 consecutive postseason series.
Until that streak is snapped, it's something that weighs on a club, even if the run existed long before this current group was playing for the Twins.
7. Detroit Tigers
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Frankly, it's shocking that the Tigers are even on this list.
However, manager A.J. Hinch's squad is 32-23 since the All-Star Break, so there are a lot of positives to highlight that have gotten the Tigers back in the wild-card race.
- Riley Greene has 25 doubles, 23 home runs, and a .840 OPS this season, along with 12 defensive runs saved in left field. He was an All-Star in 2024, and it will likely be the first of many Midsummer Classic appearances.
- Brant Hurter is a rookie left-hander who has been dominant across his first eight MLB starts, going 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA.
- Matt Vierling continues to be an interesting jack-of-all-trades piece, as he's doubled 27 times this season while also seeing time at third base and all three outfield positions.
- Kerry Carpenter was sidelined by lumbar spine inflammation for over two months, but Detroit's DH has 15 home runs and 50 RBI in less than half a season this year. When he's in the lineup, he is a difference-maker.
Trading Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers before the trade deadline might mean Detroit doesn't have enough starting pitching depth behind likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal to make a deep playoff run.
But whether the Tigers return to the playoffs for the first time since 2014 this year or not, they've done enough to warrant a renewed commitment from ownership to spending this winter and surrounding some of the organization's emerging talents with productive veterans.
6. Atlanta Braves
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On one hand, the Braves have lost Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider and A.J. Minter for the season and currently have Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Reynaldo López on the injured list.
It may just be that this isn't their year. After six consecutive NL East titles, they are fighting for the final wild-card spot in the Senior Circuit.
On the other hand, the Braves have historically disappointed in the postseason when it feels like it is their year, so maybe having fewer expectations entering the playoffs wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
Atlanta has to get in, but Albies will be back soon, while Riley and Lopez could return in the playoffs. Despite all the injuries, the Braves lineup still includes Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II, with likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale headlining a rotation with Max Fried and Spencer Schwellenbach.
The Braves might not have enough depth to make a World Series run, but if they make the playoffs, they could be scary in a three- or five-game series.
5. New York Mets
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Milwaukee Brewers skipper Pat Murphy will almost certainly win NL Manager of the Year, but Carlos Mendoza deserves consideration because he has a team that bordered on disaster a couple of times early in the season on the cusp of a playoff berth.
It's unclear how dangerous the Mets would be in the playoffs.
Sean Manaea and Luis Severino both have tremendous bounce-back seasons, but how imposing of a rotation would those two, along with either Jose Quintana or David Peterson, be in a playoff series? Kodai Senga is still trying to return this season, though shoulder and calf injuries have limited him to just 5.1 innings in 2024.
With Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez, the Mets have some bats in their lineup that are tough outs, but they do feel a piece away. The rotation does as well.
The Mets have long been expected to make a push for Juan Soto in free agency, and they should be in on Corbin Burnes too.
Money will ultimately be the biggest factor in where those two sign, but it wouldn't hurt to make a playoff appearance and even make a run before courting any stars in the winter.
4. Baltimore Orioles
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Even though it feels like the Orioles may have peaked too early—Baltimore is 27-30 in the second half after going 58-38 before the All-Star break—they are still in control of the top wild-card spot in the AL, and not entirely out of the AL East race with the New York Yankees.
What needs to happen for manager Brandon Hyde's squad to make a postseason run?
1. A bullpen that designated nine-time All-Star Craig Kimbrel for assignment this week needs some combination of Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano, Cionel Pérez and Gregory Soto to get hot.
2. Corbin Burnes has gotten back on track after a brutal August, but the rotation depth behind him is thin. Oft-injured righty Zach Eflin needs to stay healthy, while Grayson Rodriguez has to come back from lat discomfort that's sidelined him since early August.
3. Adley Rutschman has hit just .202 with a .590 OPS in the second half of the season. He'll have to get hot for Baltimore to avoid another early postseason exit.
It just feels like there's a lot of "ifs" here. Given that it's uncertain whether the Orioles will spend to keep Burnes beyond this season, it feels like general manager Mike Elias should have been more aggressive in advance of the trade deadline.
3. Kansas City Royals
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The Royals are top-heavy, but the top is really good. And in what appears to be a wide-open AL, they may be the wild-card team most likely to go on a run.
- Bobby Witt Jr. would be the AL MVP in just about any other year, as he's posted a staggering 10.0 WAR in 2024. He leads baseball in batting average (.331), hits (200) and runs scored (123).
- Salvador Perez is having one of the finest seasons in his decorated career with 27 home runs, 102 RBI and a career-high 43 walks.
- Seth Lugo was a workhorse in his first season with the Royals, as the former reliever led the sport in pitched innings (197.2) and batters faced (803).
- Cole Ragans, like Lugo, was a first-time All-Star this season. Ragans leads the AL with 217 strikeouts.
There's probably too much reliance on mid-to-late 30s veterans in the lineup, like Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel, Paul DeJong, and Hunter Renfroe. Certainly, it would help if first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino—who had 97 RBI before fracturing his right thumb in late August—can return in the postseason.
However, the Ragans-Lugo pairing is one of the best one-two rotation punches in baseball, with both Brady Singer and Michael Wacha reasonable options to take the ball in the playoffs as well. At the very least, the Royals figure to be frisky in the postseason.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Diamondbacks made a rather shocking run to the World Series last year, and they seem to have a lineup capable of repeating the feat in 2024.
Ketel Marte (5.3 WAR) will likely finish in the top five in NL MVP voting. Christian Walker is one of the most underrated players in the sport, with 26 home runs and 12 outs above average at first base. Eugenio Suárez (.995 OPS) and Corbin Carroll (.945 OPS) have each had massive second halves after disappointing before the All-Star break.
What's concerning about the Diamondbacks is their starting pitching. After Zac Gallen, there are real questions.
It appears to be a lost season for Jordan Montgomery, who has a 6.23 ERA across 112.2 innings this season. Injuries have limited Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez to a combined 19 starts this season, and neither has been particularly effective since returning from the IL.
If the starting rotation heats up, the Snakes could return to the World Series for the second year in a row, but that's no sure thing right now.
1. San Diego Padres
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The Padres have an MLB-best .685 winning percentage since the All-Star break, and there's a lot to like about manager Mike Shildt's squad ahead of the postseason.
Jackson Merrill is a leading candidate for NL Rookie of the Year, and he's joined in the lineup by Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar and Luis Arráez in what is a pretty deep group.
The always-active A.J. Preller acquired Tanner Scott and Jason Adam before the trade deadline to give the Padres an elite bullpen trio with All-Star Robert Suarez.
Joe Musgrove is healthy and has returned to pitching at a high level in the second half of the season, with a 2.37 ERA since the All-Star break. But Dylan Cease will need to limit his walks, while Yu Darvish returned in early September after missing more than three months with a left groin strain and a stint on the restricted list.
Certainly, though, you can imagine a scenario in which some combination of Musgrove, Cease, Darvish and Michael King form an effective postseason rotation.
The Padres aren't perfect, but right now, the top team in the NL wild-card race might be the most likely non-division winner to go on a World Series run.
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